There have been a lot of things the Brewers have been unsure about this season. Just who should hit behind Prince Fielder? Who should bat second? Who should be the starting centerfielder? However, those issues have seemed to take a backseat of late. Sure, the Brewers don't have a viable protector behind Prince, but when Braun returns, it should sort itself out.
The more troubling thing from my point of view has been what has been occurring in the eight inning. Since he grabbed control of setup duties last season, Kameron Loe has seemed to cement himself in that role. Despite some terrible struggles of late, Brewers Manager Ron Roenicke has stuck with Loe. Problem with that is he is just not pitching that well.
As of now, Loe is sporting a very lofty 4.87 ERA. Despite being a reliever, Loe has a team-leading seven loses. Granted loses are a very misleading stat, but if a reliever leads your team in them, it's probably not a good sign. So what exactly has been the issue with Loe this season?
In 2011, Loe has seen his ERA jump more than two runs. Obviously, that sounds like trouble. However, he has also seen both his FIP and xFIP decrease this season. That would be a sign of an unlucky pitcher. In fact, Loe's strikeout rate has actually increased to 7.3 K/9 this season. Also on the increase is his already stellar groundball rate, which currently sits at 62.6% (up 3% from last year).
While those are all good numbers for Loe, he is running into problems in other areas. His LOB% (percent of his runners that don't score) currently stands at 64.1%, which is 9% lower than the league average. Easily put, when a runner reaches on Loe, he is touching the plate more than 1/3 of the time. While that may be something very difficult to control, especially for a reliever, it also can lead people to believe you're not very good. It's just another day in the life of a reliever. Even starters have full seasons where luck is just not on their side. For a starter, they have 200+ innings to even out their fortune. For a reliever, they get maybe 1/3 of that same time.
Takashi Saito was signed this offseason to assume the eight inning duties. With Saito returning from injury last week, that is something he will likely regain after getting some work under his belt. However, that's not to say he is incapable of throwing quality, high leverage innings for the Brewers. Loe is throwing very good baseball right now. The stats just don't lead fans to think that's the case. Over time, hopefully things will level out for Kameron and the Brewers bullpen.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Thursday, May 26, 2011
You Can't Control Baseball
If there is one thing that has been pretty indicative of the first seven weeks of the Brewers season, it's been that there are simply some things out of the control of those involved with the game. Batters can hit the ball right on the screws and not find holes. Or, in Zack Greinke's case, pitches can make all the correct pitches and still end up with no so dominant results.
Obviously the Brewers weren't expecting Greinke to come in and have an ERA of 5.79 through his first five starts of the season. Surely, those are disappointing numbers for the former Cy Young award winner. However, how Greinke has gotten that ERA is much more important than the number itself.
Taking one glance at Greinke's numbers, it's pretty tough to understand why they are where they are. He has struck out 39 batters in just 28 innings. That's not the problem. Maybe he is walking batters. Well, again that can't be it as he has allowed just three free passes all season. If you really want to understand why Greinke has 'struggled' this season, one has to take into account things the pitcher just can't control.
Greinke has cruised through inning after inning this season, only to see one inning come back and bite him. Generally, the damage has come through the home run ball. Greinke's HR/FB ratio is currently at an astounding 17.9%, or 11.2% higher than his career average. Batters have also found hits with 34.8% of the balls put in play against him this season. Again, that is 4% higher than his career norm.
Obviously, those are numbers that will come back to earth and are contributing to Greinke's woes this season, but are not the most telling stat. Even though so few batters have been able to make contact against Greinke, and even fewer have reached base, those who have, have been scoring. In fact, 48% of the baserunners Greinke has allowed this season have come around to score. That's one of the most ridiculous statistics I have ever heard. For reference, in Jeff Suppan's worst season as a Brewer, just 29% of his runners were scoring. In fact, that number has little to do with talent and much more to do with luck. Simply put Zack Greinke has pitched incredibly this season. Take that in two ways: incredible and incredibly unlucky. If he continues this incredible pace he is on, his ERA is going to end of much closer to his current xFIP of 1.58 than his current ERA.
Obviously the Brewers weren't expecting Greinke to come in and have an ERA of 5.79 through his first five starts of the season. Surely, those are disappointing numbers for the former Cy Young award winner. However, how Greinke has gotten that ERA is much more important than the number itself.
Taking one glance at Greinke's numbers, it's pretty tough to understand why they are where they are. He has struck out 39 batters in just 28 innings. That's not the problem. Maybe he is walking batters. Well, again that can't be it as he has allowed just three free passes all season. If you really want to understand why Greinke has 'struggled' this season, one has to take into account things the pitcher just can't control.
Greinke has cruised through inning after inning this season, only to see one inning come back and bite him. Generally, the damage has come through the home run ball. Greinke's HR/FB ratio is currently at an astounding 17.9%, or 11.2% higher than his career average. Batters have also found hits with 34.8% of the balls put in play against him this season. Again, that is 4% higher than his career norm.
Obviously, those are numbers that will come back to earth and are contributing to Greinke's woes this season, but are not the most telling stat. Even though so few batters have been able to make contact against Greinke, and even fewer have reached base, those who have, have been scoring. In fact, 48% of the baserunners Greinke has allowed this season have come around to score. That's one of the most ridiculous statistics I have ever heard. For reference, in Jeff Suppan's worst season as a Brewer, just 29% of his runners were scoring. In fact, that number has little to do with talent and much more to do with luck. Simply put Zack Greinke has pitched incredibly this season. Take that in two ways: incredible and incredibly unlucky. If he continues this incredible pace he is on, his ERA is going to end of much closer to his current xFIP of 1.58 than his current ERA.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
The Return of John Axford
After a rough start to the season, Brewers fans had reasons to be concerned about John Axford. He seemed to struggle with his location and simply wasn't getting batters to chase the pitches that made him successful in 2010. Sure, it was only 6.1 innings, but some signs for regression were there.
I wrote an article depicting the struggles from Axford and blaming most of it on location. The velocity was still there, but Axford wasn't placing his pitches where he wanted them. Looking back, Axford has seemed to solve this issue and return to his 2010 form of a dominant arm at the back end of the Brewers bullpen.
Since those problematic 6.1 innings, Axford has been unhittable. Looking at his numbers before and after are a pretty good representation of Axford's turnaround.
Before April 19th
6.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 6 BB, 6 K, 3 Saves, 2 Blown Saves
Since April 19th
15 IP, 4 ER, 15 Hits, 2 BB, 21 K, 9 Saves, 0 Blown Saves
The outcome looks even more promising for Axford. Thus far, batters who put the ball in play have had that ball land for a hit 38.6% of the time. While Axford has done a very good job of limiting the amount of contact being made against him (11.5 K/9), his has been unlucky thus far. If those numbers dip to the league average of 29-31%, Axford's late inning effectiveness will only increase.
He has also improved his ability to throw strikes during this span. Through those first seven outings, Axford was throwing strikes at a 60.4% clip. As that number has increased, so has his productivity. Since April 19th, Axford's pitches have gone for strikes 68% of the time. This obviously leads to the increased strikeout and reduced walk totals. Also leading to that positive turn has been Axford's ability to get hitters to swing and miss when he is throwing those strikes. Right now, Axford's getting swings and misses at 21.3% of the pitches inside the strike zone. For a reference, Axford recorded just 15.8 in that category last year.
However it's looked at, John Axford's production is on the rise. For a closer who is controlled very cheaply, this is great news for the Brewers. As long as Axford continues to throw strikes and use his plus arm, the Brewers have a very nice asset at the back end of their bullpen.
I wrote an article depicting the struggles from Axford and blaming most of it on location. The velocity was still there, but Axford wasn't placing his pitches where he wanted them. Looking back, Axford has seemed to solve this issue and return to his 2010 form of a dominant arm at the back end of the Brewers bullpen.
Since those problematic 6.1 innings, Axford has been unhittable. Looking at his numbers before and after are a pretty good representation of Axford's turnaround.
Before April 19th
6.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 6 BB, 6 K, 3 Saves, 2 Blown Saves
Since April 19th
15 IP, 4 ER, 15 Hits, 2 BB, 21 K, 9 Saves, 0 Blown Saves
The outcome looks even more promising for Axford. Thus far, batters who put the ball in play have had that ball land for a hit 38.6% of the time. While Axford has done a very good job of limiting the amount of contact being made against him (11.5 K/9), his has been unlucky thus far. If those numbers dip to the league average of 29-31%, Axford's late inning effectiveness will only increase.
He has also improved his ability to throw strikes during this span. Through those first seven outings, Axford was throwing strikes at a 60.4% clip. As that number has increased, so has his productivity. Since April 19th, Axford's pitches have gone for strikes 68% of the time. This obviously leads to the increased strikeout and reduced walk totals. Also leading to that positive turn has been Axford's ability to get hitters to swing and miss when he is throwing those strikes. Right now, Axford's getting swings and misses at 21.3% of the pitches inside the strike zone. For a reference, Axford recorded just 15.8 in that category last year.
However it's looked at, John Axford's production is on the rise. For a closer who is controlled very cheaply, this is great news for the Brewers. As long as Axford continues to throw strikes and use his plus arm, the Brewers have a very nice asset at the back end of their bullpen.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Offensive Offense
Let's be blunt, the Milwaukee Brewers are pretty tough to watch right now. The bullpen is struggling. The defense has been horrendous. Most important, they have lost seven in a row.
How they have looked in those seven games has been an even worse story. The offense has been just awful. The stats are very simple over the past week. In those seven games, they have scored just seven runs. They have just 34 hits over that same span. Even worse, they have struck out 62 in those games. That is pretty terrible, but even worse considering they have walked just nine times. What does that come out to? A near seven to one strikeout to walk ratio for opposing pitchers.
Looking at the numbers for the opposing pitchers during the streak is just incredible. One way to analyse how good someone pitched is by looking at their game score. The formula for game score is, start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk. While that may seem complicated, just remember the higher the score, the better the outing and the average score in baseball is 53.
Wandy Rodriguez 74
Bud Norris 81
Jair Jurrjens 61
Tommy Hanson 63
Tim Hudson 90
Brandon Beachy 70
Jaime Garcia 90
Sure the pitching isn't exactly doing it's job right now, but the responsibility of this losing streak lies with the offense. Drastic steps need to be taken. Carlos Gomez should never see the two hole again. Wil Nieves needs to be sent down. Yunieski Bentancourt needs to sit more. Until these steps are taken, the Brewers are not giving themselves the best chance of breaking out of their current slide. I'm not going to jump ship yet on this offense, but changes need to be explored.
How they have looked in those seven games has been an even worse story. The offense has been just awful. The stats are very simple over the past week. In those seven games, they have scored just seven runs. They have just 34 hits over that same span. Even worse, they have struck out 62 in those games. That is pretty terrible, but even worse considering they have walked just nine times. What does that come out to? A near seven to one strikeout to walk ratio for opposing pitchers.
Looking at the numbers for the opposing pitchers during the streak is just incredible. One way to analyse how good someone pitched is by looking at their game score. The formula for game score is, start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk. While that may seem complicated, just remember the higher the score, the better the outing and the average score in baseball is 53.
Wandy Rodriguez 74
Bud Norris 81
Jair Jurrjens 61
Tommy Hanson 63
Tim Hudson 90
Brandon Beachy 70
Jaime Garcia 90
Sure the pitching isn't exactly doing it's job right now, but the responsibility of this losing streak lies with the offense. Drastic steps need to be taken. Carlos Gomez should never see the two hole again. Wil Nieves needs to be sent down. Yunieski Bentancourt needs to sit more. Until these steps are taken, the Brewers are not giving themselves the best chance of breaking out of their current slide. I'm not going to jump ship yet on this offense, but changes need to be explored.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Braun's Incredible April
There was little question coming into this season that Ryan Braun was a very good hitter. He has always shown an ability to hit for high average, high slugging seasons. However what Braun has been able to do so far in 2011 is only expanding his reputation as one of the game's elite.
The biggest knock on Braun throughout his career at the plate has always been his inability to so elite patience. Sure, no one is saying Braun never walked, but to be on the level of baseball's best, Braun had some work to do. In his first four pro seasons, Braun posted walk percentages of 5.9, 6.3, 8.1 and 8.2 in order. While trending up in the base on ball category is always a good sign, Braun has taken it to a new level this season. Through his first 24 games, Braun is walking 14.8% of the time. What makes this even more impressive is the way Ryan has accomplished this.
In 2011, Braun is seeing first pitch strike at a higher rate than any other point in his career (67.6%). What Braun has been able to do to combat that is go deeper into counts and foul more pitches off. Only 59.9% of pitches that Braun has seen have gone for strikes. In 447 pitches this season, Braun has swung at just 42.2% of them. That again is a career low.
Even better, Braun has done incredible damage in the limited number of times he has swung the bat. His line drive percentage sits at a staggering 25.7%, which is more than 6% higher than any other point in his career. Of the 26 fly balls Braun has hit, nine have left the yard for an unbelievable 34.4% HR/FB ratio. Can he maintain those numbers, obviously not, but Braun has some things going for him.
His BABIP in 2011 currently sits at .353. While that is surely high, it's not that far off his career average of .336. His pitches per at bat currently sits at 4.14, which again is a career high. These are numbers that Braun could maintain and would continue to mean incredible success at the dish.
All said, in the month of April, Ryan Braun, along with Prince Fielder have carried the Brewers offense. In just 90 at bats, Braun has already produced a 1.4 WAR. While that is pretty unheard of, think of how tough that is with the defense Braun plays. According to UZR, Braun's defense is already four runs under league average this season. If he was just producing at a league average rate, the Braun's WAR would be right near two. Wow. If Braun is even a shell of what he produced this month, Brewers fans are in for quite a show.
The biggest knock on Braun throughout his career at the plate has always been his inability to so elite patience. Sure, no one is saying Braun never walked, but to be on the level of baseball's best, Braun had some work to do. In his first four pro seasons, Braun posted walk percentages of 5.9, 6.3, 8.1 and 8.2 in order. While trending up in the base on ball category is always a good sign, Braun has taken it to a new level this season. Through his first 24 games, Braun is walking 14.8% of the time. What makes this even more impressive is the way Ryan has accomplished this.
In 2011, Braun is seeing first pitch strike at a higher rate than any other point in his career (67.6%). What Braun has been able to do to combat that is go deeper into counts and foul more pitches off. Only 59.9% of pitches that Braun has seen have gone for strikes. In 447 pitches this season, Braun has swung at just 42.2% of them. That again is a career low.
Even better, Braun has done incredible damage in the limited number of times he has swung the bat. His line drive percentage sits at a staggering 25.7%, which is more than 6% higher than any other point in his career. Of the 26 fly balls Braun has hit, nine have left the yard for an unbelievable 34.4% HR/FB ratio. Can he maintain those numbers, obviously not, but Braun has some things going for him.
His BABIP in 2011 currently sits at .353. While that is surely high, it's not that far off his career average of .336. His pitches per at bat currently sits at 4.14, which again is a career high. These are numbers that Braun could maintain and would continue to mean incredible success at the dish.
All said, in the month of April, Ryan Braun, along with Prince Fielder have carried the Brewers offense. In just 90 at bats, Braun has already produced a 1.4 WAR. While that is pretty unheard of, think of how tough that is with the defense Braun plays. According to UZR, Braun's defense is already four runs under league average this season. If he was just producing at a league average rate, the Braun's WAR would be right near two. Wow. If Braun is even a shell of what he produced this month, Brewers fans are in for quite a show.
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Brewers Extend Braun
The Milwaukee Brewers announced Thursday, they have agreed to a five-year extension with left fielder Ryan Braun. The contract, which locks up Braun through 2020, is for $105 million.
I think every Brewer fan would be lying if they said they saw this coming. The biggest flaw in this deal is Braun was already locked up cheaply through 2015 (age 32). Essentially, the risk just is too steep. Extending Braun an additional five years was just not that necessary.
Contrary to what you may think after reading this article, Ryan Braun is one of my favorite players. The point of this article is not to say Braun is a bad player, he isn't. The point is not to say this contract is a terrible waste of money, it isn't. However, the point of this article is to analyse the strategy the Brewers used in locking up their young superstar.
To start, let's look at where the Brewers and Ryan Braun stood prior to Thursday's extension. Braun had $40.5 million and five years remaining on his old contract, which Braun signed in 2008. Now of course, Braun would be worth more money when that contract would've ran out assuming he stayed healthy and kept a similar performance up.
The breakdown of this article is not saying the value isn't there. Again, if he stays healthy and keeps a similar performance level up, this is a bargain. Where my problem is with this deal is was it really necessary? Braun was already locked up through his prime at a very reasonable price. I question the reasoning in rushing to sign Braun for his age 33-37 seasons for $21 million annually.
The biggest problem with the signing is the things the Brewers just don't know. Sure, Braun's doesn't have a history riddled with injuries, but what's to say he's going to stay healthy throughout the entire contract. In addition, there has to be some concern about Braun's ability near the end of his career. Sure, we aren't talking the same risk of an Alfonso Soriano type contract, but that's not to say some uncertainty isn't there.
Could Braun remain an incredible hitter throughout the rest of his time with the Brewers, yes. Could Braun also fall off and have a large contract with average production near the end of his career? Yes. That's the problem with this deal. There is some reward if everything works out until the end. However, that reward doesn't outweigh the potential problems that could arise.
I think every Brewer fan would be lying if they said they saw this coming. The biggest flaw in this deal is Braun was already locked up cheaply through 2015 (age 32). Essentially, the risk just is too steep. Extending Braun an additional five years was just not that necessary.
Contrary to what you may think after reading this article, Ryan Braun is one of my favorite players. The point of this article is not to say Braun is a bad player, he isn't. The point is not to say this contract is a terrible waste of money, it isn't. However, the point of this article is to analyse the strategy the Brewers used in locking up their young superstar.
To start, let's look at where the Brewers and Ryan Braun stood prior to Thursday's extension. Braun had $40.5 million and five years remaining on his old contract, which Braun signed in 2008. Now of course, Braun would be worth more money when that contract would've ran out assuming he stayed healthy and kept a similar performance up.
The breakdown of this article is not saying the value isn't there. Again, if he stays healthy and keeps a similar performance level up, this is a bargain. Where my problem is with this deal is was it really necessary? Braun was already locked up through his prime at a very reasonable price. I question the reasoning in rushing to sign Braun for his age 33-37 seasons for $21 million annually.
The biggest problem with the signing is the things the Brewers just don't know. Sure, Braun's doesn't have a history riddled with injuries, but what's to say he's going to stay healthy throughout the entire contract. In addition, there has to be some concern about Braun's ability near the end of his career. Sure, we aren't talking the same risk of an Alfonso Soriano type contract, but that's not to say some uncertainty isn't there.
Could Braun remain an incredible hitter throughout the rest of his time with the Brewers, yes. Could Braun also fall off and have a large contract with average production near the end of his career? Yes. That's the problem with this deal. There is some reward if everything works out until the end. However, that reward doesn't outweigh the potential problems that could arise.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Cause for Concern: John Axford
There are many out there who immediately diagnosed John Axford as trouble after the first game of the season against the Cincinnati Reds. Axford blew a three run lead and the Brewers lost their opening game 7-6. The scrutiny didn't really seem all that warranted considering just how effective Axford was last season. After all, it was one inning. That's pretty simple to shake off.
What transpired over the next couple of outings is where concern really starts to set in for Brewers fans. The problem seems rather easy to diagnose: he's not throwing strikes. However, that really isn't the problem at all, which leads to even more confusion.
At the moment, Axford has thrown a total of 136 pitches this season. Of those 136, 82 have gone for strikes, or 60.3%. While that isn't the highest strike percentage, it's not that bad. Take Axford's 2010 for comparaison. Last season, Axford threw strikes on 607 of his 989 pitches. That translates into 61.4% pitches thrown for strikes. Sure that is better than this season, but really doesn't seem to be the problem.
Axford seemed to have a tendency to get batters to swing at pitches out of the zone last season. To the naked eye, that ability has eluded him this year. However, again, this doesn't seem to be the problem. In fact, Axford has actually gotten hitters to swing at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone this year (33.9%), than last year (32.1%). It's not like the hitters aren't chasing pitches, they are. Where Axford's problem lies is what happens when the chase those pitches.
This season, despite getting hitters to chase balls, they are making contact with them. This surely has a direct correlation to where Axford's pitches have been. Axford has seemed to lose control of the slider that was so deadly last season. Time and time again, Axford has left his slider up this season. When it's up and possibly missing the strike zone, it's much easier to make contact than when it's sharp and diving out of it. So far this year, batters are making contact at a 89.5% rate of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Last season, those same pitches were only hit 57.3% of the time when the batter swung.
Are Axford's six walks in 6.1 innings a concern? Sure. Were Axford's control troubles in Philadelphia Monday apparent? Yes. Outings like Monday are going to happen for pitchers like Axford. Where my concern lies in is where Axford is throwing pitches. A floating slider is easy to hit, even if it is a ball. Pitches are going to walk batters if they are unable to get batters to swing and miss at pitches out of the strike zone. Until Axford is able to regain the biting slider from last season, the ninth inning will be a concern for Brewers fans.
What transpired over the next couple of outings is where concern really starts to set in for Brewers fans. The problem seems rather easy to diagnose: he's not throwing strikes. However, that really isn't the problem at all, which leads to even more confusion.
At the moment, Axford has thrown a total of 136 pitches this season. Of those 136, 82 have gone for strikes, or 60.3%. While that isn't the highest strike percentage, it's not that bad. Take Axford's 2010 for comparaison. Last season, Axford threw strikes on 607 of his 989 pitches. That translates into 61.4% pitches thrown for strikes. Sure that is better than this season, but really doesn't seem to be the problem.
Axford seemed to have a tendency to get batters to swing at pitches out of the zone last season. To the naked eye, that ability has eluded him this year. However, again, this doesn't seem to be the problem. In fact, Axford has actually gotten hitters to swing at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone this year (33.9%), than last year (32.1%). It's not like the hitters aren't chasing pitches, they are. Where Axford's problem lies is what happens when the chase those pitches.
This season, despite getting hitters to chase balls, they are making contact with them. This surely has a direct correlation to where Axford's pitches have been. Axford has seemed to lose control of the slider that was so deadly last season. Time and time again, Axford has left his slider up this season. When it's up and possibly missing the strike zone, it's much easier to make contact than when it's sharp and diving out of it. So far this year, batters are making contact at a 89.5% rate of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Last season, those same pitches were only hit 57.3% of the time when the batter swung.
Are Axford's six walks in 6.1 innings a concern? Sure. Were Axford's control troubles in Philadelphia Monday apparent? Yes. Outings like Monday are going to happen for pitchers like Axford. Where my concern lies in is where Axford is throwing pitches. A floating slider is easy to hit, even if it is a ball. Pitches are going to walk batters if they are unable to get batters to swing and miss at pitches out of the strike zone. Until Axford is able to regain the biting slider from last season, the ninth inning will be a concern for Brewers fans.
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