When the Brewers hired Ken Macha this past offseason I was excited. I knew that he had managed in Oakland under Billy Beane. I figured that under during his time in Oakland he understood some of the basic principles of managing. I also thought, how could he be any worse than Ned Yost?
My excitement continued to grow as he began making comments. He stated how he didn't want to waste outs on the bases. On a side note, nothing angers me more than watching some one get thrown out stealing a base. A team like the Brewers relies mainly on power and getting on base. There is no sense in risking runners and giving away outs when many players on this team are able to hit extra base hits.
When the season started, I liked Macha's managing style even more. One of the most frustrating things about Yost was his constant tinkering with the lineup. Macha seemed to get comfortable with his order and not give a ton of off days. I remember last season when Prince Fielder was sat in order to get some rest. Yost inserted Mike Rivera in Fielder's 1st base spot. I, for the life of me can't understand why Prince Fielder would need a rest. He plays the least stressful position on the field. With that being said, Macha seemed to have a particular order that he stuck with. I liked that.
Sure it was easy to say that Macha was a good manager after the good first two months of the season, but then things started to turn.
Macha was dealt a bad hand with the Brewers rotation. They have simply been awful this season. It's not only that the starters were unable to keep opponents off the board, they were unable to go deep into games. Because of this, Macha was forced to extensively use his bullpen.
The main reason the Brewers started so well was the bullpen success in the first two months. These guys were simply untouchable, but when the workload increased, their effectiveness was killed. This is my biggest beef with Macha. He completely ran this bullpen into the ground this season. Todd Coffey will be back next season, but it is tough to know what we are going to get out of him. Macha has abused his arm this season with multiple outings in consequective days. On top of that, Macha has forced Coffey into many high pitch counts. Just a couple of weeks ago Macha used Coffey for three innings in a loss to the Reds. What is the point of risking Coffey's arm at this point in the season?
More alarming than his bullpen work is how he has managed young players.
When Rickie Weeks was lost for the season, the Brewers called up Mat Gamel. Gamel is a great prospect who has an amazing bat. He bats lefty, but is quite the opposite of many other lefties. He absolutely kills left handed pitching. His career splits are amazing. This season, he is hitting .338 with an on base percentage of .386. This has lead to an OPS of 1.075 against southpaws. That is compared to his disappointing .752 OPS against righties. Macha platooned Gamel, which I disagreed with, but could somewhat understand. Problem is, Macha used Gamel to face righties exclusively instead of lefties, which he has crushed throughout his career. Sure Gamel struggled in the majors. That was probably because he wasn't allowed to face what he could actually hit. There was no reason that Gamel should have lost any at bats to Bill Hall.
When J.J. Hardy was sent down, the Brewers playoff hopes were all but gone. He was replaced with Alcides Escobar. This was the perfect time to play Escobar everyday and see what he can do. Instead, Macha used him in a platoon with Craig Counsell. If your going to waste Escobar's service time in the major leagues, why even call him up? Young players need consistent at bats. Counsell has played well this season, but playing him does absolutely nothing at this point.
The last straw for me has been what has been going on lately. The last two days Macha has leadoff with Corey Patterson. How Corey Patterson even has a major league job is beyond me, but why he is leading off is even more confusing. The worst thing that could happen at this point is Patterson having a good September and the Brewers look at keeping him in 2010. Patterson is a bad player and has no future with this team. Why not lead off Escobar instead. Getting him more at bats can only help his development. It seems strange to instead give those at bats to Patterson.
In short, I don't think this season is completely Macha's fault. Has he managed every game perfectly? No, but he could have been much worse. I think it is easy to say that he has been the problem this season and fire him, but what would we do after that. Macha has all the tools of making a good manager, but sometimes he just over thinks the game. He brought Todd Coffey in in the 5th inning yesterday for a matchup with Pujols. While Coffey is a good pitcher, there is no reason he should be pitching in the 5th. I think the players are frustrated with his managing style. If this is the case, he needs to go. It's tough to play for a manager that no one likes. The players come first. Managers can be replaced. It will be interesting to see what way management goes this offseason.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Monday, September 7, 2009
Toss Up: Hardy or Escobar?
The Milwaukee Brewers have a very interesting decision to make this offseason. Do they trade J.J. Hardy or Alcides Escobar?
There is little doubt in my mind that only one of these players is going to be on the 2010 Brewers' roster. The question is who should the Brewers trade? The resounding answer to that question in Milwaukee is trade J.J. Hardy.
Hardy is having a terrible offensive season, but is still contributing with the glove. His .225/.298/.358/.656 line this season is his worst offensive season in his career. So it would seem like a no-brainer to trade him instead of a top ranked prospect like Escobar, but is it really? What do the Brewers actually gain from trading Hardy?
Many fans have criticized Brewers' General Manager Doug Melvin for not trading Hardy this offseason when he has amazing value, but how many actually wanted a trade to go down? There were many rumors involving Hardy being traded to the Minnesota Twins for a starting pitcher. Every fan I talked to had a lot of reserves in parting with a good shortstop like Hardy, and for good reason. Hardy was coming of a season that saw him hit 24 home runs and post a career high .343 OBP with a .821 OPS. On top of that, it was unsure how ready Escobar was after last season. I'm still not sure he is ready to take over.
Although Escobar has always been rated as a top prospect, I have really never understood why. Don't get me wrong, Escobar could be a solid player, but nothing about him really blows me away. He doesn't hit for power. He doesn't walk. The two main arguments for Escobar is that he is a great defender and he is fast. In limited time this season, Escobar's glove has not been all it was cracked up to be. I may be spoiled after watching Hardy over the last couple of seasons though. The second argument was something that I never have agreed with. Just because a player has speed does not make him a talented batter. The old adage reign's true in Alcides' case, "You can't steal first base."
Escobar's main problem throughout the minor leagues has been his inability to draw walks. His career on-base-percentage throughout the minors is nothing special (.333). It's tough to utilize his speed if he is not consistently getting on base. His walk rate in the minors was just over 4%. Couple that with a 15% strikeout ratio Escobar's future doesn't look so bright.
Escobar's stock rose after his 2008 season when he became the Brewers top ranked prospect according to Baseball America. In 2008 Escobar batted .328/.363/.434/.797, an impressive season. What's alarming to me is that he was still not walking. In 546 at bats that season, he drew just 31 walks. So how was he able to post that line despite poor plate discipline? Simple, good fortune. When Escobar hit the ball into play that season, he hit for a .375 average. That's high for even the best of hitters. Take out that season and Escobar's BABIP is right around .320, which is much more likely than another season like he had in 2008.
In all honesty, this argument is like comparing apples to oranges. Escobar and Hardy are two very different players. Escobar has blinding speed. Hardy, well, let's just say he's doesn't. Hardy has great power for a shortstop (50 HR's in 2007-2008). Escobar doesn't (20 HR's in over 2600 pro career at bats). The biggest difference between the players is the main reason why Escobar makes sense over Hardy.
Escobar is still in his first year of major league service time. He has to wait another three years until he is even eligible for arbitration. After that, he has another three seasons before he hits free agency. The kind of money that Escobar saves the Brewers is the main reason why it makes sense to keep him over Hardy. Hardy, after losing a year of service time controversially, will not hit the open market until after 2011. He is going to make around $4 million next season. It seems tough to believe that Hardy would be open to Milwaukee after the way the Brewers delayed his free agency. Even with those reasons, here is why I think the Brewers should go against many and trade Escobar, making Hardy the shortstop for the next two years.
The main reason that the Brewers struggled this season is pitching. The starting pitching was so bad that it completely dismantled a good bullpen. Looking forward, acquiring a starting pitcher is priority number one this offseason in Milwaukee. I don't see the Brewers overspending for a free agent starting pitcher, so trading for a starter seems like the route they will take. The two players whose names have surfaced have been Hardy and Brewers outfielder Corey Hart. I just don't understand why it would a good time to sell either of those players.
Hardy's value has been completely dismantled after this season. There's no telling what Hardy would be able to get the Brewers. I've heard anywhere from a 3-5 starter. Escobar is ranked as one of the best prospects in baseball. He has many cheap seasons ahead of him. The amount of value that he possess to another team is off the charts. It is not hard to think that he might bring a front line starter to Milwaukee. He was the main piece that Toronto coveted for Roy Halladay. Why trade Hardy for a little return when Escobar could put this franchise over the top? The Brewers are two seasons away from losing Prince Fielder to free agency. Hardy is also under control until that season. If the Brewers are unwilling to part with Prince, why trade Hardy? I am completely confident that Hardy will outproduce Escobar over the next two seasons. The Brewers have to determine what the future entails. If they honestly believe that they can compete right away, the choice seems too simple.
Don't get me wrong, I didn't write this article to bash Alcides Escobar. He would be a great option for many major league organizations. I just don't think that he is the right choice for the Brewers. I guess I am just amazed at how excited people get by speed in the game of baseball. Speed is a good asset, but so are many other things. I heard a guy this season say, "you can't teach speed." While that may be true, there are other things that some people are blessed with. You can try to teach plate discipline, but many hitters are not able to learn to lay off bad pitches. If the Brewers do trade Hardy and make Escobar the starter, I hope everything I have wrote in this article proves to be incorrect. I just fear that selling low on Hardy would be an unwise move. Escobar is a good player, but I just don't think he is on the level of what I have seen out of Hardy. One bad season should not constitute trading a player. Escobar is yet to post an .800 OPS even in the minor leagues, the facts just don't lie. The Brewers best hitting shortstop in the organization is, and remains J.J. Hardy.
There is little doubt in my mind that only one of these players is going to be on the 2010 Brewers' roster. The question is who should the Brewers trade? The resounding answer to that question in Milwaukee is trade J.J. Hardy.
Hardy is having a terrible offensive season, but is still contributing with the glove. His .225/.298/.358/.656 line this season is his worst offensive season in his career. So it would seem like a no-brainer to trade him instead of a top ranked prospect like Escobar, but is it really? What do the Brewers actually gain from trading Hardy?
Many fans have criticized Brewers' General Manager Doug Melvin for not trading Hardy this offseason when he has amazing value, but how many actually wanted a trade to go down? There were many rumors involving Hardy being traded to the Minnesota Twins for a starting pitcher. Every fan I talked to had a lot of reserves in parting with a good shortstop like Hardy, and for good reason. Hardy was coming of a season that saw him hit 24 home runs and post a career high .343 OBP with a .821 OPS. On top of that, it was unsure how ready Escobar was after last season. I'm still not sure he is ready to take over.
Although Escobar has always been rated as a top prospect, I have really never understood why. Don't get me wrong, Escobar could be a solid player, but nothing about him really blows me away. He doesn't hit for power. He doesn't walk. The two main arguments for Escobar is that he is a great defender and he is fast. In limited time this season, Escobar's glove has not been all it was cracked up to be. I may be spoiled after watching Hardy over the last couple of seasons though. The second argument was something that I never have agreed with. Just because a player has speed does not make him a talented batter. The old adage reign's true in Alcides' case, "You can't steal first base."
Escobar's main problem throughout the minor leagues has been his inability to draw walks. His career on-base-percentage throughout the minors is nothing special (.333). It's tough to utilize his speed if he is not consistently getting on base. His walk rate in the minors was just over 4%. Couple that with a 15% strikeout ratio Escobar's future doesn't look so bright.
Escobar's stock rose after his 2008 season when he became the Brewers top ranked prospect according to Baseball America. In 2008 Escobar batted .328/.363/.434/.797, an impressive season. What's alarming to me is that he was still not walking. In 546 at bats that season, he drew just 31 walks. So how was he able to post that line despite poor plate discipline? Simple, good fortune. When Escobar hit the ball into play that season, he hit for a .375 average. That's high for even the best of hitters. Take out that season and Escobar's BABIP is right around .320, which is much more likely than another season like he had in 2008.
In all honesty, this argument is like comparing apples to oranges. Escobar and Hardy are two very different players. Escobar has blinding speed. Hardy, well, let's just say he's doesn't. Hardy has great power for a shortstop (50 HR's in 2007-2008). Escobar doesn't (20 HR's in over 2600 pro career at bats). The biggest difference between the players is the main reason why Escobar makes sense over Hardy.
Escobar is still in his first year of major league service time. He has to wait another three years until he is even eligible for arbitration. After that, he has another three seasons before he hits free agency. The kind of money that Escobar saves the Brewers is the main reason why it makes sense to keep him over Hardy. Hardy, after losing a year of service time controversially, will not hit the open market until after 2011. He is going to make around $4 million next season. It seems tough to believe that Hardy would be open to Milwaukee after the way the Brewers delayed his free agency. Even with those reasons, here is why I think the Brewers should go against many and trade Escobar, making Hardy the shortstop for the next two years.
The main reason that the Brewers struggled this season is pitching. The starting pitching was so bad that it completely dismantled a good bullpen. Looking forward, acquiring a starting pitcher is priority number one this offseason in Milwaukee. I don't see the Brewers overspending for a free agent starting pitcher, so trading for a starter seems like the route they will take. The two players whose names have surfaced have been Hardy and Brewers outfielder Corey Hart. I just don't understand why it would a good time to sell either of those players.
Hardy's value has been completely dismantled after this season. There's no telling what Hardy would be able to get the Brewers. I've heard anywhere from a 3-5 starter. Escobar is ranked as one of the best prospects in baseball. He has many cheap seasons ahead of him. The amount of value that he possess to another team is off the charts. It is not hard to think that he might bring a front line starter to Milwaukee. He was the main piece that Toronto coveted for Roy Halladay. Why trade Hardy for a little return when Escobar could put this franchise over the top? The Brewers are two seasons away from losing Prince Fielder to free agency. Hardy is also under control until that season. If the Brewers are unwilling to part with Prince, why trade Hardy? I am completely confident that Hardy will outproduce Escobar over the next two seasons. The Brewers have to determine what the future entails. If they honestly believe that they can compete right away, the choice seems too simple.
Don't get me wrong, I didn't write this article to bash Alcides Escobar. He would be a great option for many major league organizations. I just don't think that he is the right choice for the Brewers. I guess I am just amazed at how excited people get by speed in the game of baseball. Speed is a good asset, but so are many other things. I heard a guy this season say, "you can't teach speed." While that may be true, there are other things that some people are blessed with. You can try to teach plate discipline, but many hitters are not able to learn to lay off bad pitches. If the Brewers do trade Hardy and make Escobar the starter, I hope everything I have wrote in this article proves to be incorrect. I just fear that selling low on Hardy would be an unwise move. Escobar is a good player, but I just don't think he is on the level of what I have seen out of Hardy. One bad season should not constitute trading a player. Escobar is yet to post an .800 OPS even in the minor leagues, the facts just don't lie. The Brewers best hitting shortstop in the organization is, and remains J.J. Hardy.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Mike Cameron Wants to Remain a Brewer
The Milwaukee Brewers don't have top center field prospect waiting in AAA. They don't have unlimited funds to bring in over priced free agents. They do, however, have a class act manning center field right now in Mike Cameron.
Cameron, a free agent this offseason, just made it clear how interested he is in staying in Milwaukee. Cameron said that he would be willing to sign for under market value to stay in Milwaukee. There are two questions that need to be answered. How much is market value for Cameron and are the Brewers willing to resign him?
Market value for Cameron is a tough question to answer. If the Brewers offer him arbitration, Cameron is going to get a raise in arbitration. So, saying the Brewers don't take this approach, what would it take? A great deal for the Brewers would be one similar to the deal that Trevor Hoffman signed this past offseason. It may be unreasonable to expect that kind of discount. Whatever the price, I high doubt that it is going to take away from the Brewers pursuit of starting pitching. I believe the right way to improve the staff is via trades.
I am a huge fan of Cameron. He is an above average centerfielder, both defensively and offensively. Although his range has started to decline, Cameron is still one of the best outfielders in baseball. Even more encouraging is his discipline at the plate this season.
Cameron is the critic of a lot of fans in Milwaukee due to his high strikeout totals. What many fail to see is how good of an eye Cameron possess. This season Cameron is striking out 29% of the time, a very high rate. However, Cameron is able to draw walks at an equally impressive 13.1% of the time.
What makes Cameron so valuable is how good of a hitter he is for a centerfielder. Cameron has the rare combination of patience and power. He is slugging .460 and carries an on base percentage of .357 for an OPS of .817. That OPS ranks much higher than the league average of .756.
I feel much better about next season after hearing this news. Cameron is an integral part of the Brewers. Not signing him back would be a big mistake.
Cameron, a free agent this offseason, just made it clear how interested he is in staying in Milwaukee. Cameron said that he would be willing to sign for under market value to stay in Milwaukee. There are two questions that need to be answered. How much is market value for Cameron and are the Brewers willing to resign him?
Market value for Cameron is a tough question to answer. If the Brewers offer him arbitration, Cameron is going to get a raise in arbitration. So, saying the Brewers don't take this approach, what would it take? A great deal for the Brewers would be one similar to the deal that Trevor Hoffman signed this past offseason. It may be unreasonable to expect that kind of discount. Whatever the price, I high doubt that it is going to take away from the Brewers pursuit of starting pitching. I believe the right way to improve the staff is via trades.
I am a huge fan of Cameron. He is an above average centerfielder, both defensively and offensively. Although his range has started to decline, Cameron is still one of the best outfielders in baseball. Even more encouraging is his discipline at the plate this season.
Cameron is the critic of a lot of fans in Milwaukee due to his high strikeout totals. What many fail to see is how good of an eye Cameron possess. This season Cameron is striking out 29% of the time, a very high rate. However, Cameron is able to draw walks at an equally impressive 13.1% of the time.
What makes Cameron so valuable is how good of a hitter he is for a centerfielder. Cameron has the rare combination of patience and power. He is slugging .460 and carries an on base percentage of .357 for an OPS of .817. That OPS ranks much higher than the league average of .756.
I feel much better about next season after hearing this news. Cameron is an integral part of the Brewers. Not signing him back would be a big mistake.
Monday, August 31, 2009
Compensation Confusion
One of the more confusing rules in baseball has to be the way teams are compensated when losing a draft pick. If you already know these rules, you can scroll down to the fourth paragraph.
Depending on how good a certain player is, he is given the label of a Type A, B, or outright free agent. If a team signs a Type A free agent, that team loses either their first, or second round draft pick in the next amateur draft. If the team who signs that pick finishes in the worst 15 teams in the league, their first round pick is protected. The other 15 teams have to lose their first round pick if they make a Type A signing.
Type B, or outright free agents don't cost the team who signs them any picks. However, a team who loses a Type B free agent receives a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. Outright free agent receive no compensation to the team that loses them. All of this hinges on the team offering the free agent arbitration. Some players aren't offered arbitration because of the fear that the player will accept.
This system has been flawed for quite some time now. This season, Jason Kendall is a Type B free agent, while being one of the worst position players who plays everyday in baseball. Last season, the Brewers failed to get the Yankees first round pick because Mark Teixeira was rated as a better player. If Ben Sheets would have been healthy he could have landed in New York and the Brewers would have received a third rounder as compensation for Sheets' being a Type A. However, I think the two players who were hurt the most last offseason were Mark Grudzielanek and Juan Cruz.
Surprisingly, Grudzielanek and Cruz were labeled Type A free agents after last season. This is one of the worst things you can hear if you are a player. A Type A free agent is so much less attractive to sign because they cost a high draft pick. Subsequently, the value that the player had drops significantly. Cruz ended up signing with the Royals for two years/$ 6 million. This was well below market value and entirely because of his free agent status. No one would touch Grudzielanek and he remained a free agent until after the draft when it wouldn't cost that team anything for him.
The one good thing about this system is it is going to help the Brewers this season. The Brewers have soon to be free agent closer Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman will be a Type A free agent this season. Because of this, Hoffman is much less likely to garner the interest that he would if he wasn't a Type A. The Brewers are certainly going to offer his arbitration this offseason and I would be surprised if another team paid more than the offer to get an aging closer, while losing one of their top picks.
Another interesting case is Cubs starter Rich Harden. Harden's injury problems have been well documented. Harden has been injured at least once each of the last five seasons. When healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Cubs are actively trying to trade Harden before today's deadline with the Twins. They are reluctant to offer him arbitration because of his injury problems. I can't see a more perfect scenario for the Cubs. A one year deal for Harden is ideal because of how little they are risking. If a serious arm injury happens, he is off the books after this season. I still am unable to figure out why the Cubs wouldn't keep him and offer him arbitration this offseason.
Although the current system may be flawed, it is the only thing stopping large market teams from completely dominating the free agent market. Cheap options remain a possibility for small market teams. When they do lose a player, they can try and replace him via the draft. All the more proof of how incredibly important young, cheap players are in major league baseball.
Depending on how good a certain player is, he is given the label of a Type A, B, or outright free agent. If a team signs a Type A free agent, that team loses either their first, or second round draft pick in the next amateur draft. If the team who signs that pick finishes in the worst 15 teams in the league, their first round pick is protected. The other 15 teams have to lose their first round pick if they make a Type A signing.
Type B, or outright free agents don't cost the team who signs them any picks. However, a team who loses a Type B free agent receives a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. Outright free agent receive no compensation to the team that loses them. All of this hinges on the team offering the free agent arbitration. Some players aren't offered arbitration because of the fear that the player will accept.
This system has been flawed for quite some time now. This season, Jason Kendall is a Type B free agent, while being one of the worst position players who plays everyday in baseball. Last season, the Brewers failed to get the Yankees first round pick because Mark Teixeira was rated as a better player. If Ben Sheets would have been healthy he could have landed in New York and the Brewers would have received a third rounder as compensation for Sheets' being a Type A. However, I think the two players who were hurt the most last offseason were Mark Grudzielanek and Juan Cruz.
Surprisingly, Grudzielanek and Cruz were labeled Type A free agents after last season. This is one of the worst things you can hear if you are a player. A Type A free agent is so much less attractive to sign because they cost a high draft pick. Subsequently, the value that the player had drops significantly. Cruz ended up signing with the Royals for two years/$ 6 million. This was well below market value and entirely because of his free agent status. No one would touch Grudzielanek and he remained a free agent until after the draft when it wouldn't cost that team anything for him.
The one good thing about this system is it is going to help the Brewers this season. The Brewers have soon to be free agent closer Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman will be a Type A free agent this season. Because of this, Hoffman is much less likely to garner the interest that he would if he wasn't a Type A. The Brewers are certainly going to offer his arbitration this offseason and I would be surprised if another team paid more than the offer to get an aging closer, while losing one of their top picks.
Another interesting case is Cubs starter Rich Harden. Harden's injury problems have been well documented. Harden has been injured at least once each of the last five seasons. When healthy, he is one of the best pitchers in baseball. The Cubs are actively trying to trade Harden before today's deadline with the Twins. They are reluctant to offer him arbitration because of his injury problems. I can't see a more perfect scenario for the Cubs. A one year deal for Harden is ideal because of how little they are risking. If a serious arm injury happens, he is off the books after this season. I still am unable to figure out why the Cubs wouldn't keep him and offer him arbitration this offseason.
Although the current system may be flawed, it is the only thing stopping large market teams from completely dominating the free agent market. Cheap options remain a possibility for small market teams. When they do lose a player, they can try and replace him via the draft. All the more proof of how incredibly important young, cheap players are in major league baseball.
Friday, August 28, 2009
What Constitutes a Good Baseball Team?
I was recently having a conversation with one of my friends about how good of a season Prince Fielder was having. Fielder by all accounts is a below average first baseman defensively, but is completely killing the ball this season. My friend replied, "you don't care about defense. You would take eight Prince Fielder's to play everyday and be terrible defensively."
Now it's tough to accurately judge what makes a great defender by just watching the games. I have heard all season that Ryan Braun is a great outfielder and that Jason Kendall is an amazing defensive catcher. This was, of course, stated by the Brewers broadcast team and really doesn't have any factual basis behind it. Sure Ryan Braun didn't make an error for over a season, but was he really playing good defense? No.
The other night, the Brewers were tied with the Reds in extra innings. There were two outs and a runner on second. Darnell McDonald was batting and hit a fly ball to left field. This was a routine play by all accounts, but Braun ran in and then back only to watch the ball sail over his head. The run scored on the play and the Brewers lost 4-3 after failing to score the next inning. Braun was not charged an error on the play, so in the boxscore, it might appear that it was a clean double for McDonald. Sure Braun wasn't charged with an error, but everyone would agree that he should have easily made the play.
The fact of the matter is that errors really don't tell how good a player is defensively. That is why it is so important to rely on advanced fielding statistics. They are able to determine things that are not visible to the naked eye.
With that being said, let's go back to the topic of what really makes a good baseball team. Would eight Prince Fielder's win you a ton of games? Offensively, yes. Defensively, no. Sure the team might score eight runs a game, but how many balls could Prince run down in the gap? Probably very few. So what is essential in the makeup of a baseball team.
It is very easy to pencil in great hitters in hitter friendly fielding positions. The easiest positions to play on the field are first base, right field, left field and third base. That is why I have always said it is key to fill those spots with great hitters. Anyone can play first base, that is why it is so important to have a great hitter playing there.
The more difficult positions to play mean that that player can afford to not be as effective on offense. Those positions include catcher, shortstop, second base, and center field. Now, I'm not saying that you can afford to run out terrible hitters in those positions, but the talent level in batting between a shortstop and first baseman is usually astronomical. So what would my ideal team be?
It is very easy to plug Hanley Ramirez in at short and Joe Mauer at catcher, but that's really not fair. Most teams are unable to be as fortunate as the Twins and Marlins. So here is what I would look for in a line up. Obviously, the easier positions to play would have to be able to hit. There is really no sense in starting a non-power threat at first base considering how many options are out there. So say I was able to pencil in good hitters at 1B, RF, LF and 3B, what else would I need?
I never believed in an all glove, no bat player. Off the top of my head Nick Punto comes to mind. There is no reason that Punto should be making $4 million a year for the Twins. Don't get me wrong, he is a great defender, but he has no business being in an everyday lineup. So, although I would lower the bar offensively, the "toughest" positions would still have to hit. I think this is why I like Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy so much. Cameron is a great centerfielder, but he is also able to hit for some power. There are not many CF's that are able to do this. That is what makes him so valuable to the Brewers. Likewise with Hardy. Although he has struggled mightily with the bat this season, he is one of the better hitting shortstop in baseball.
When a team is able to pencil is a good hitter in a position that rarely yields offensive production, is makes that player much more valuable. Just think of what Joe Mauer is doing this season in Minnesota. Joe Mauer is posting a ridiculous OPS of 1.064 at the moment. The league average OPS for a catcher is .719. An OPS of 1.064 is amazing for any position, but a catcher, that's just insane. He leads the American League is OPS from, usually, the least productive position offensively Mauer is much of the reason as to why the Twins still have a chance this season.
So when I think of what kind of team that I would like to see, it's really not that far off from what the Brewers had this season. Of course, an upgrade would be needed at catcher, and Corey Hart's production would have to improve, but this team has a really good makeup. Also, at the start of this season, the Brewers had a healthy Rickie Weeks at second.
With Weeks coming back next year and Mat Gamel coming up, next season looks very promising. The Brewers need to sign a cheap option at catcher and cut ties with Jason Kendall. Of course the pitching is a huge question mark, but this team is as far off as some think. So to answer the question, what I would want is something very similar to what the Brewers have going.
Now it's tough to accurately judge what makes a great defender by just watching the games. I have heard all season that Ryan Braun is a great outfielder and that Jason Kendall is an amazing defensive catcher. This was, of course, stated by the Brewers broadcast team and really doesn't have any factual basis behind it. Sure Ryan Braun didn't make an error for over a season, but was he really playing good defense? No.
The other night, the Brewers were tied with the Reds in extra innings. There were two outs and a runner on second. Darnell McDonald was batting and hit a fly ball to left field. This was a routine play by all accounts, but Braun ran in and then back only to watch the ball sail over his head. The run scored on the play and the Brewers lost 4-3 after failing to score the next inning. Braun was not charged an error on the play, so in the boxscore, it might appear that it was a clean double for McDonald. Sure Braun wasn't charged with an error, but everyone would agree that he should have easily made the play.
The fact of the matter is that errors really don't tell how good a player is defensively. That is why it is so important to rely on advanced fielding statistics. They are able to determine things that are not visible to the naked eye.
With that being said, let's go back to the topic of what really makes a good baseball team. Would eight Prince Fielder's win you a ton of games? Offensively, yes. Defensively, no. Sure the team might score eight runs a game, but how many balls could Prince run down in the gap? Probably very few. So what is essential in the makeup of a baseball team.
It is very easy to pencil in great hitters in hitter friendly fielding positions. The easiest positions to play on the field are first base, right field, left field and third base. That is why I have always said it is key to fill those spots with great hitters. Anyone can play first base, that is why it is so important to have a great hitter playing there.
The more difficult positions to play mean that that player can afford to not be as effective on offense. Those positions include catcher, shortstop, second base, and center field. Now, I'm not saying that you can afford to run out terrible hitters in those positions, but the talent level in batting between a shortstop and first baseman is usually astronomical. So what would my ideal team be?
It is very easy to plug Hanley Ramirez in at short and Joe Mauer at catcher, but that's really not fair. Most teams are unable to be as fortunate as the Twins and Marlins. So here is what I would look for in a line up. Obviously, the easier positions to play would have to be able to hit. There is really no sense in starting a non-power threat at first base considering how many options are out there. So say I was able to pencil in good hitters at 1B, RF, LF and 3B, what else would I need?
I never believed in an all glove, no bat player. Off the top of my head Nick Punto comes to mind. There is no reason that Punto should be making $4 million a year for the Twins. Don't get me wrong, he is a great defender, but he has no business being in an everyday lineup. So, although I would lower the bar offensively, the "toughest" positions would still have to hit. I think this is why I like Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy so much. Cameron is a great centerfielder, but he is also able to hit for some power. There are not many CF's that are able to do this. That is what makes him so valuable to the Brewers. Likewise with Hardy. Although he has struggled mightily with the bat this season, he is one of the better hitting shortstop in baseball.
When a team is able to pencil is a good hitter in a position that rarely yields offensive production, is makes that player much more valuable. Just think of what Joe Mauer is doing this season in Minnesota. Joe Mauer is posting a ridiculous OPS of 1.064 at the moment. The league average OPS for a catcher is .719. An OPS of 1.064 is amazing for any position, but a catcher, that's just insane. He leads the American League is OPS from, usually, the least productive position offensively Mauer is much of the reason as to why the Twins still have a chance this season.
So when I think of what kind of team that I would like to see, it's really not that far off from what the Brewers had this season. Of course, an upgrade would be needed at catcher, and Corey Hart's production would have to improve, but this team has a really good makeup. Also, at the start of this season, the Brewers had a healthy Rickie Weeks at second.
With Weeks coming back next year and Mat Gamel coming up, next season looks very promising. The Brewers need to sign a cheap option at catcher and cut ties with Jason Kendall. Of course the pitching is a huge question mark, but this team is as far off as some think. So to answer the question, what I would want is something very similar to what the Brewers have going.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
OK, This is Getting Out of Control
I just got back from the Brewers action packed 8-6 loss against the Cincinnati Reds. Anytime the home team posts a five spot in the ninth to tie it, it was a great game. I found the excitement of the Brewers comeback overweighted by my frustration with Ken Macha's use of the bullpen. It is really starting to get out of hand.
I have mentioned numerous times on this blog of how poorly Macha has managed the pitching staff this season. I think that he can be to blame for the second worst earned run average in the National League.
Tonight, Macha threw Todd Coffey for three straight innings, in which Coffey threw a season high 46 pitches.
Although Coffey has shown an ability to go multiple innings before, there is no telling what kind of stress this is putting on his arm. Including tonight, Coffey has pitched more than one inning 19 times this season. He has pitched in back-to-back games 12 times. Although Coffey has been successful this season, this can only last for so long.
The majority of Coffey's overuse has come recently, while the bullpen has begun to falter. The first half of the season, the Brewers had one of the best bullpen's in the league. That bullpen was flourishing with great work from Coffey, Hoffman, DiFelice, Carlos Villanueva and Mitch Stetter. Everyone but Coffey and Hoffman have pitched horribly since then. Hoffman is unable to be overworked because the Brewers, simply, haven't had leads to bring him in. That is not the case for Coffey.
Lately, it seems that there is no lead too small or large for Todd to appear. Just last week Coffey pitched a scoreless 7th inning while the Brewers were leading 10-2. What is the point in using Coffey in a decided game. That is the reason we traded for David Weathers and Claudio Vargas. Those are the types of pitchers that are able to eat innings and help save a bullpen.
In his third inning tonight, Coffey gave up two home runs and the Brewers lost 8-6. What was the point in Coffey coming back out for the 13th? The only viable reason would have been that the Brewers were running out of pitchers. However, this was not the case. The Brewers had three pitchers remaining in their bullpen. Deadline acquisitions David Weathers and Claudio Vargas were not used. Lefty specialist Mitch Stetter was not used, even though Joey Votto was leading off the 13th. There were other options, but Macha has the most trust in Coffey. Sometimes, it seems that he only trusts Coffey.
This has been my biggest problem with Ken Macha. He seems to get his mind set with just some certain guys.
Mark DiFelice had a rough week against lefties earlier this season, where he surrendered a couple of home runs. Since then, DiFelice has been used primarily as a ROOGY (righty one out guy). That term is thrown out for someone who can't get lefties out. Although for that week he struggled, throughout his entire career in the minor leagues, he handled lefties pretty well. There is no question that Mark handles righties better, but that doesn't mean that he can't also get lefties. Anybody with DiFelice's control and ability to strike out batter should not be working in the fifth inning constantly- a role that Mark has found himself in lately.
I just wanted to point out one case in which Macha has lost trust in one of his relievers. There are for sure many other instances. The important thing is to regain the trust that he had earlier this season. The reason that this bullpen worked so well was that Macha had more than two pitchers that he trusted.
Coffey hasn't lost his effectiveness yet, but it has to be coming soon. Reliever pitchers in major league baseball are so delicate. Constant overuse of the will lead to ineffectiveness. Coffey is under control for the Brewers for a couple of years yet. There is no reason to waste his arm trying to finish .500 this season. I'm just saying why risk one of our best relievers to finish one game better. In the big picture, it's just not worth it.
I have mentioned numerous times on this blog of how poorly Macha has managed the pitching staff this season. I think that he can be to blame for the second worst earned run average in the National League.
Tonight, Macha threw Todd Coffey for three straight innings, in which Coffey threw a season high 46 pitches.
Although Coffey has shown an ability to go multiple innings before, there is no telling what kind of stress this is putting on his arm. Including tonight, Coffey has pitched more than one inning 19 times this season. He has pitched in back-to-back games 12 times. Although Coffey has been successful this season, this can only last for so long.
The majority of Coffey's overuse has come recently, while the bullpen has begun to falter. The first half of the season, the Brewers had one of the best bullpen's in the league. That bullpen was flourishing with great work from Coffey, Hoffman, DiFelice, Carlos Villanueva and Mitch Stetter. Everyone but Coffey and Hoffman have pitched horribly since then. Hoffman is unable to be overworked because the Brewers, simply, haven't had leads to bring him in. That is not the case for Coffey.
Lately, it seems that there is no lead too small or large for Todd to appear. Just last week Coffey pitched a scoreless 7th inning while the Brewers were leading 10-2. What is the point in using Coffey in a decided game. That is the reason we traded for David Weathers and Claudio Vargas. Those are the types of pitchers that are able to eat innings and help save a bullpen.
In his third inning tonight, Coffey gave up two home runs and the Brewers lost 8-6. What was the point in Coffey coming back out for the 13th? The only viable reason would have been that the Brewers were running out of pitchers. However, this was not the case. The Brewers had three pitchers remaining in their bullpen. Deadline acquisitions David Weathers and Claudio Vargas were not used. Lefty specialist Mitch Stetter was not used, even though Joey Votto was leading off the 13th. There were other options, but Macha has the most trust in Coffey. Sometimes, it seems that he only trusts Coffey.
This has been my biggest problem with Ken Macha. He seems to get his mind set with just some certain guys.
Mark DiFelice had a rough week against lefties earlier this season, where he surrendered a couple of home runs. Since then, DiFelice has been used primarily as a ROOGY (righty one out guy). That term is thrown out for someone who can't get lefties out. Although for that week he struggled, throughout his entire career in the minor leagues, he handled lefties pretty well. There is no question that Mark handles righties better, but that doesn't mean that he can't also get lefties. Anybody with DiFelice's control and ability to strike out batter should not be working in the fifth inning constantly- a role that Mark has found himself in lately.
I just wanted to point out one case in which Macha has lost trust in one of his relievers. There are for sure many other instances. The important thing is to regain the trust that he had earlier this season. The reason that this bullpen worked so well was that Macha had more than two pitchers that he trusted.
Coffey hasn't lost his effectiveness yet, but it has to be coming soon. Reliever pitchers in major league baseball are so delicate. Constant overuse of the will lead to ineffectiveness. Coffey is under control for the Brewers for a couple of years yet. There is no reason to waste his arm trying to finish .500 this season. I'm just saying why risk one of our best relievers to finish one game better. In the big picture, it's just not worth it.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Should the Brewers Sell?
Lately, there has been a lot of talk that the Brewers should sell off some of their future free agents. This list includes Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell, Mike Cameron and Trevor Hoffman. The real question is would this help the Brewers franchise?
A lot of writers have labeled it a no brainer to sell trade these players. While it may make some sense, I think it really depends on what you get back.
The Brewers have two type B free agents out of these players. This means that if the Brewers were to hang onto these players until the end of the season, they would receive a sandwich pick (between the 1st and 2nd rounds) in the amateur draft. To get the draft pick, they would have to offer the players arbitration and have them decline and sign elsewhere. The two players are Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall. I have no idea how Kendall is considered a type B free agent. I really think the current system that is in place needs to be examined if a team losing Kendall receives compensation.
Cameron will for sure be offered arbitration, but Kendall certainly shouldn't. Although the Brewers risk losing the compensation pick, they shouldn't risk having Kendall accept and have him for another season.
The other two players are Trevor Hoffman and Craig Counsell.
Hoffman will be a type A free agent. This means that along with the sandwich pick, the Brewers would receive a top pick in either the first or second round.
Counsell, despite have a great 2009 will not make the list as a type B free agent. So if he walks at the end of the season, the Brewers will get nothing for him.
After looking at this, I do agree the Brewers should sell some players. With Kendall, the Brewers could save $1 million this season. He shouldn't be offered arbitration in the offseason, meaning he wouldn't be of any value for the remainder of the season (not saying that he was of value at all this season). I don't know how any contender could have interest in him, but if there is a taker the Brewers should make the deal.
Counsell is not going to get the Brewers any compensation after this season, but only makes $150K for the rest of the year. With his play this season, he could be of value to a contender. He is a very versatile player that could fill a void. Off the top of my head, the White Sox would make sense. Their second base job has been up for grabs with both current players struggling. I do also think that he could net us a semi-decent prospect in return. Even if he does leave, he has always said how much he likes Milwaukee and probably would want to come back as a free agent next season.
With Cameron and Hoffman, the sale doesn't seem as easy as you would think. If the Brewers trade either player, we would lose the draft picks that we could receive for them. With Hoffman's season so far, it is likely that he would be attractive to any team looking for a one year closer this offseason. Cameron seems like a very underrated CF and probably would receive some interest in the free agent market. I am a huge fan of Cameron and I would like to see him back next season. An option could be to trade him and then pick him up in the offseason.
If either Cameron or Hoffman is traded, the Brewers would have to get a good prospect in return. Hoffman is worthy of a player who could match a first rounder and Cameron should be worth at least a player with the caliber of a second round pick. This is what makes a trade for either of these players so tough. What team is going to give up a top prospect for a month of Cameron, or Hoffman.
Although it might look like a no brainer, these trades are so tough to finish. Instead of working with the entire league, the Brewers are working with just the team that claims that particular player. This is why a lot of big players are not moved after the July 31st deadline.
I say we get rid of Kendall and Counsell because it would be beneficial to cut cost, while also maybe getting a prospect. We might as well put Hoffman and Cameron on waivers and see what happens. Worst case scenario, we pull them back and nothing happens. It's really not a no brainer in trading these players, although it is a no brainer to at least see what we might be able to get.
A lot of writers have labeled it a no brainer to sell trade these players. While it may make some sense, I think it really depends on what you get back.
The Brewers have two type B free agents out of these players. This means that if the Brewers were to hang onto these players until the end of the season, they would receive a sandwich pick (between the 1st and 2nd rounds) in the amateur draft. To get the draft pick, they would have to offer the players arbitration and have them decline and sign elsewhere. The two players are Mike Cameron and Jason Kendall. I have no idea how Kendall is considered a type B free agent. I really think the current system that is in place needs to be examined if a team losing Kendall receives compensation.
Cameron will for sure be offered arbitration, but Kendall certainly shouldn't. Although the Brewers risk losing the compensation pick, they shouldn't risk having Kendall accept and have him for another season.
The other two players are Trevor Hoffman and Craig Counsell.
Hoffman will be a type A free agent. This means that along with the sandwich pick, the Brewers would receive a top pick in either the first or second round.
Counsell, despite have a great 2009 will not make the list as a type B free agent. So if he walks at the end of the season, the Brewers will get nothing for him.
After looking at this, I do agree the Brewers should sell some players. With Kendall, the Brewers could save $1 million this season. He shouldn't be offered arbitration in the offseason, meaning he wouldn't be of any value for the remainder of the season (not saying that he was of value at all this season). I don't know how any contender could have interest in him, but if there is a taker the Brewers should make the deal.
Counsell is not going to get the Brewers any compensation after this season, but only makes $150K for the rest of the year. With his play this season, he could be of value to a contender. He is a very versatile player that could fill a void. Off the top of my head, the White Sox would make sense. Their second base job has been up for grabs with both current players struggling. I do also think that he could net us a semi-decent prospect in return. Even if he does leave, he has always said how much he likes Milwaukee and probably would want to come back as a free agent next season.
With Cameron and Hoffman, the sale doesn't seem as easy as you would think. If the Brewers trade either player, we would lose the draft picks that we could receive for them. With Hoffman's season so far, it is likely that he would be attractive to any team looking for a one year closer this offseason. Cameron seems like a very underrated CF and probably would receive some interest in the free agent market. I am a huge fan of Cameron and I would like to see him back next season. An option could be to trade him and then pick him up in the offseason.
If either Cameron or Hoffman is traded, the Brewers would have to get a good prospect in return. Hoffman is worthy of a player who could match a first rounder and Cameron should be worth at least a player with the caliber of a second round pick. This is what makes a trade for either of these players so tough. What team is going to give up a top prospect for a month of Cameron, or Hoffman.
Although it might look like a no brainer, these trades are so tough to finish. Instead of working with the entire league, the Brewers are working with just the team that claims that particular player. This is why a lot of big players are not moved after the July 31st deadline.
I say we get rid of Kendall and Counsell because it would be beneficial to cut cost, while also maybe getting a prospect. We might as well put Hoffman and Cameron on waivers and see what happens. Worst case scenario, we pull them back and nothing happens. It's really not a no brainer in trading these players, although it is a no brainer to at least see what we might be able to get.
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