Brewers Daily

Goldschmidt's Granny Dooms Brewers in Game 3

2011-10-04T20:49:00.000-07:00

If you've followed the Brewers this season, you probably know manager Ron Roenicke is not a huge fan of the intentional walk. Time and time again he has said it is something that he doesn't like to use.

It's pretty fitting that the Brewers matched up with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the NLDS. In fact, they are two very similar teams. They both hit their fair share of home runs. Both teams rely mainly on the strength of their top three pitchers. They also don't issue free passes.

In game one, Kirk Gibson was faced with a very interested scenario. After a two out double by Ryan Braun, Gibson watched as Prince Fielder walked to the plate. After taking the first pitch, Fielder deposited the next into the right field stands, giving the Brewers a 4-0 lead and basically solidified game one for the Brewers. Many argued Gibson should have walked Fielder to get to Weeks. That's just not their game.

The Brewers and Diamondbacks finished dead last in the league in intentional walks. Both teams finished the season with 16 IBB issued. Only the Boston Red Sox (11), had less this season.

Ron Roenicke was faced with a similar dilemma to Gibson's on Tuesday night. He decided to take a path he rarely travels and walk Miguel Montero to load the bases for Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt then followed with the first grand slam in Diamondbacks history. The dinger gave the Diamondbacks a 7-1 lead and basically game three.

So was Roenicke right in walking Montero?

According to fangraphs, the move slightly lowered the Brewers chances for victory, but I would argue this doesn't tell the whole story. Montero already hit two balls very solidly off Marcum and was one base hit from putting the D'Backs up three. Instead, the Diamondbacks were forced to rely on Paul Goldschmidt. While Goldschmidt has just as much, if not more power than Montero, he was less likely to deliver a hit. Goldschmidt struck out 29.9% of the time this season. He hit just .250, as opposed to Montero's .282. If I'm Roenicke in that situation, I try to avoid what beats you there. While a base hit might not deliver a knock out blow, it significantly puts the Brewers in trouble. In my opinion, Roenicke made the correct move.

It's pretty interesting that two teams who don't issue free bases have had to ponder it in two game changing situations. All said, you have to feel pretty good if you are a Brewers fan still one win from the NLCS.

The Future Isn't That Bleak

2011-08-16T08:42:00.000-07:00

We've heard it time and time again; the Brewers are going 'all in' this year. While it's tough to question that logic, is it exactly correct?

There is little doubt arguing Brewers did dealt away many of their top prospects in an already slim minor league system this offseason. First, they sent top prospect Brett Lawrie to the Toronto Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum. Then, the sent Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain and Jake Odorizzi to the Kansas City Royals for Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt. Those were certainly two moves that drastically changed the future plans for the Milwaukee Brewers.

But, despite sending those key pieces away, the Brewers find themselves in a pennant race and I would suggest many think those trades worked out. It's tough to argue with that logic considering the excitement surrounding the club at the moment. However, what many feared in these deals was not the immediate consequences, but the long term effects.

I'm hear to argue that although those trades certainly didn't help the future chances of this organization, they didn't entirely cripple them either.

The minor league system currently has some very nice pieces falling into place that should benefit the future Brewers clubs. Here are some of those options that will be explored in years to come.

Mat Gamel

While Gamel always seems to be forgotten and not labeled as a top prospect, I argue there is no player more in the minor league more important than Gamel. Gamel has a couple of things going for him. First, he can hit. Despite struggling in limited playing time in each of the last three years in Milwaukee, Gamel has consistently been tearing the cover off the ball in AAA. He has averaged an OPS around .900 over of the last three years in Nashville. Even more impressive is the ability he possess to get on base. In each of the last two seasons, Gamel has posted OBP's of .387 while playing everyday. Sure, he's not going to be Prince Fielder, but few are with the bat.

Another nice thing for the Brewers regarding Gamel is he is cheap. To date, Gamel has just over one year of MLB service time under his belt. He is cheaply control for years to come. While not playing him in the major leagues has frustrated me, it has also allowed the Brewers to save money in the future. There is little doubt in my mind, if Gamel plays everyday in Milwaukee, he will hit.

Taylor Green

If there is one player that has helped soften the blow of losing Brett Lawrie this offseason, it's Taylor Green. After posting some very impressive numbers to start his pro career, Green really fell off the map. His walks regressed, as did his power. However, that seemed to all change this season. Green is murdering AAA pitching to the tune of a .337/.419/.587 line. Yes, that's correct, Green's OPS is over 1.000 in 449 plate appearances. His wOBA currently resides at an incredible .431. Green is sure to be a big part of the future plans in Milwaukee and, again, will come very cheap.

Caleb Gindl

Gindl, like Green is also enjoying a resurgent season in Nashville. Despite always posting very good walk totals, he always seemed to struggle with a low batting average that seemed to kill his value. This season, Gindl has changed that. He is batting .298/.381/.473, while playing everyday in right and center for the Sounds. He, like Green must be placed on the 40-man roster by the end of the year to avoid the Rule 5 draft. Obviously, it's pretty clear both players will be in Milwaukee next season.

While there are others who could certainly contribute (Kyle Heckathorn, Tyler Thornburg, ect.), in the future, these look to be the most immediate impact in Milwaukee. With the entire starting rotation intact for 2012 and the majority of the positional players, next year looks just as good in Milwaukee. What I'm arguing is that after that won't look like the early-2000's either.

Brewers Acquire K-Rod

2011-07-12T22:48:00.000-07:00

In a move that can only be categorized as stunning, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired closer Francisco Rodriguez from the New York Mets along with $5 million Tuesday. Milwaukee will send two PTBNL back in exchanged for the eccentric 29 year-old RHP.

While the bullpen has been taking a beating of late, the Brewers have a large variety of talent at their disposal. Kameron Loe leads the team with seven loses and a bunch of late inning mishaps, but all his numbers would suggest that would only turn around. After dealing with injury problems, Takashi Saito is finally healthy and ready to return to late inning duties, but is likely to move into a seventh inning role with this move.

The biggest motivator for the Mets in this trade was the $17.5 million option looming over them next year. That option would have automatically have kicked in if Rodriguez would have finished another 21 games for the Mets this season. Seeing as he was the teams closer, that is something that was very likely to happen. However, the trade doesn't take this part of his contract away. So, to recap, if K-Rod finishes another 21 games this season, the Brewers will automatically have his contract on the books in 2012. Easy solution to that is to relegate him to setup duties. A move the Brewers will almost certainly do. With Rodriguez manning setup duties, and John Axford closing, the Brewers have gone a long way in trying to limit the opponent's game to seven innings. There is no question how valuable a lock down back end of the bullpen can be (i.e. 2010 San Diego Padres).

The biggest concern for the Milwaukee Brewers heading forward lies at shortstop. They continue to give ample playing time to Yuniesky Betancourt who has responded to the tune of a first half WAR of -0.8. Surely, many fans could expect the Brewers to be active at the trade deadline, but obviously for a shortstop.

There are options available for the Brewers to explore at shortstop, but with the trade, this does close some doors. Obviously, trading for Rodriguez and the $5 million he's still owed this season (plus the $3.5 million buyout for next year), puts an already high Brewers payroll at the breaking point. The Brewers received $5 million in this trade, so essentially take on $3.5 million for Rodriguez and his services.

As of now, there is no way to tell if Doug Melvin further emptied an already razor thin minor league system. With the news of the Mets sending $5 million to the Brewers in this trade, I would assume they would expect some talent to be returned. However, Buster Olney is reporting the Mets made a straight salary dump here. If true, this becomes a very nice pickup at a decent price for the Brewers.

While his velocity may have dropped in past couple of years, Francisco Rodriguez is still a very good pitcher. This season, he is striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. He also possess a very good 52% groundball rate that should only help him at Miller Park. His FIP currently sits just south of his good 3.16 ERA.

Rodriguez will no doubt help an already good Milwaukee bullpen. But, if this acquisition means they have to stomach a bad shortstop for the remainder of the pennant race, the Brewers may have misfired here. Addressing flaws should be priority number one for a contending baseball team. The Brewers failed to address their top concern Tuesday night. While Rodriguez will certainly improve the club, the bullpen was not the problem. Shortstop will remain the biggest variable in the Brewers 2011 season as long as Yuniesky Betancourt continues to see extended playing time.

Kameron Loe's Struggles

2011-07-07T17:37:00.000-07:00

There have been a lot of things the Brewers have been unsure about this season. Just who should hit behind Prince Fielder? Who should bat second? Who should be the starting centerfielder? However, those issues have seemed to take a backseat of late. Sure, the Brewers don't have a viable protector behind Prince, but when Braun returns, it should sort itself out.

The more troubling thing from my point of view has been what has been occurring in the eight inning. Since he grabbed control of setup duties last season, Kameron Loe has seemed to cement himself in that role. Despite some terrible struggles of late, Brewers Manager Ron Roenicke has stuck with Loe. Problem with that is he is just not pitching that well.

As of now, Loe is sporting a very lofty 4.87 ERA. Despite being a reliever, Loe has a team-leading seven loses. Granted loses are a very misleading stat, but if a reliever leads your team in them, it's probably not a good sign. So what exactly has been the issue with Loe this season?

In 2011, Loe has seen his ERA jump more than two runs. Obviously, that sounds like trouble. However, he has also seen both his FIP and xFIP decrease this season. That would be a sign of an unlucky pitcher. In fact, Loe's strikeout rate has actually increased to 7.3 K/9 this season. Also on the increase is his already stellar groundball rate, which currently sits at 62.6% (up 3% from last year).

While those are all good numbers for Loe, he is running into problems in other areas. His LOB% (percent of his runners that don't score) currently stands at 64.1%, which is 9% lower than the league average. Easily put, when a runner reaches on Loe, he is touching the plate more than 1/3 of the time. While that may be something very difficult to control, especially for a reliever, it also can lead people to believe you're not very good. It's just another day in the life of a reliever. Even starters have full seasons where luck is just not on their side. For a starter, they have 200+ innings to even out their fortune. For a reliever, they get maybe 1/3 of that same time.

Takashi Saito was signed this offseason to assume the eight inning duties. With Saito returning from injury last week, that is something he will likely regain after getting some work under his belt. However, that's not to say he is incapable of throwing quality, high leverage innings for the Brewers. Loe is throwing very good baseball right now. The stats just don't lead fans to think that's the case. Over time, hopefully things will level out for Kameron and the Brewers bullpen.

You Can't Control Baseball

2011-05-26T23:52:00.001-07:00

If there is one thing that has been pretty indicative of the first seven weeks of the Brewers season, it's been that there are simply some things out of the control of those involved with the game. Batters can hit the ball right on the screws and not find holes. Or, in Zack Greinke's case, pitches can make all the correct pitches and still end up with no so dominant results.

Obviously the Brewers weren't expecting Greinke to come in and have an ERA of 5.79 through his first five starts of the season. Surely, those are disappointing numbers for the former Cy Young award winner. However, how Greinke has gotten that ERA is much more important than the number itself.

Taking one glance at Greinke's numbers, it's pretty tough to understand why they are where they are. He has struck out 39 batters in just 28 innings. That's not the problem. Maybe he is walking batters. Well, again that can't be it as he has allowed just three free passes all season. If you really want to understand why Greinke has 'struggled' this season, one has to take into account things the pitcher just can't control.

Greinke has cruised through inning after inning this season, only to see one inning come back and bite him. Generally, the damage has come through the home run ball. Greinke's HR/FB ratio is currently at an astounding 17.9%, or 11.2% higher than his career average. Batters have also found hits with 34.8% of the balls put in play against him this season. Again, that is 4% higher than his career norm.

Obviously, those are numbers that will come back to earth and are contributing to Greinke's woes this season, but are not the most telling stat. Even though so few batters have been able to make contact against Greinke, and even fewer have reached base, those who have, have been scoring. In fact, 48% of the baserunners Greinke has allowed this season have come around to score. That's one of the most ridiculous statistics I have ever heard. For reference, in Jeff Suppan's worst season as a Brewer, just 29% of his runners were scoring. In fact, that number has little to do with talent and much more to do with luck. Simply put Zack Greinke has pitched incredibly this season. Take that in two ways: incredible and incredibly unlucky. If he continues this incredible pace he is on, his ERA is going to end of much closer to his current xFIP of 1.58 than his current ERA.

The Return of John Axford

2011-05-22T22:28:00.000-07:00

After a rough start to the season, Brewers fans had reasons to be concerned about John Axford. He seemed to struggle with his location and simply wasn't getting batters to chase the pitches that made him successful in 2010. Sure, it was only 6.1 innings, but some signs for regression were there.

I wrote an article depicting the struggles from Axford and blaming most of it on location. The velocity was still there, but Axford wasn't placing his pitches where he wanted them. Looking back, Axford has seemed to solve this issue and return to his 2010 form of a dominant arm at the back end of the Brewers bullpen.

Since those problematic 6.1 innings, Axford has been unhittable. Looking at his numbers before and after are a pretty good representation of Axford's turnaround.

Before April 19th

6.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 6 BB, 6 K, 3 Saves, 2 Blown Saves

Since April 19th

15 IP, 4 ER, 15 Hits, 2 BB, 21 K, 9 Saves, 0 Blown Saves

The outcome looks even more promising for Axford. Thus far, batters who put the ball in play have had that ball land for a hit 38.6% of the time. While Axford has done a very good job of limiting the amount of contact being made against him (11.5 K/9), his has been unlucky thus far. If those numbers dip to the league average of 29-31%, Axford's late inning effectiveness will only increase.

He has also improved his ability to throw strikes during this span. Through those first seven outings, Axford was throwing strikes at a 60.4% clip. As that number has increased, so has his productivity. Since April 19th, Axford's pitches have gone for strikes 68% of the time. This obviously leads to the increased strikeout and reduced walk totals. Also leading to that positive turn has been Axford's ability to get hitters to swing and miss when he is throwing those strikes. Right now, Axford's getting swings and misses at 21.3% of the pitches inside the strike zone. For a reference, Axford recorded just 15.8 in that category last year.

However it's looked at, John Axford's production is on the rise. For a closer who is controlled very cheaply, this is great news for the Brewers. As long as Axford continues to throw strikes and use his plus arm, the Brewers have a very nice asset at the back end of their bullpen.

Offensive Offense

2011-05-06T19:11:00.000-07:00

Let's be blunt, the Milwaukee Brewers are pretty tough to watch right now. The bullpen is struggling. The defense has been horrendous. Most important, they have lost seven in a row.

How they have looked in those seven games has been an even worse story. The offense has been just awful. The stats are very simple over the past week. In those seven games, they have scored just seven runs. They have just 34 hits over that same span. Even worse, they have struck out 62 in those games. That is pretty terrible, but even worse considering they have walked just nine times. What does that come out to? A near seven to one strikeout to walk ratio for opposing pitchers.

Looking at the numbers for the opposing pitchers during the streak is just incredible. One way to analyse how good someone pitched is by looking at their game score. The formula for game score is, start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk. While that may seem complicated, just remember the higher the score, the better the outing and the average score in baseball is 53.

Wandy Rodriguez 74

Bud Norris 81

Jair Jurrjens 61

Tommy Hanson 63

Tim Hudson 90

Brandon Beachy 70

Jaime Garcia 90

Sure the pitching isn't exactly doing it's job right now, but the responsibility of this losing streak lies with the offense. Drastic steps need to be taken. Carlos Gomez should never see the two hole again. Wil Nieves needs to be sent down. Yunieski Bentancourt needs to sit more. Until these steps are taken, the Brewers are not giving themselves the best chance of breaking out of their current slide. I'm not going to jump ship yet on this offense, but changes need to be explored.

Braun's Incredible April

2011-04-29T14:08:00.000-07:00

There was little question coming into this season that Ryan Braun was a very good hitter. He has always shown an ability to hit for high average, high slugging seasons. However what Braun has been able to do so far in 2011 is only expanding his reputation as one of the game's elite.

The biggest knock on Braun throughout his career at the plate has always been his inability to so elite patience. Sure, no one is saying Braun never walked, but to be on the level of baseball's best, Braun had some work to do. In his first four pro seasons, Braun posted walk percentages of 5.9, 6.3, 8.1 and 8.2 in order. While trending up in the base on ball category is always a good sign, Braun has taken it to a new level this season. Through his first 24 games, Braun is walking 14.8% of the time. What makes this even more impressive is the way Ryan has accomplished this.

In 2011, Braun is seeing first pitch strike at a higher rate than any other point in his career (67.6%). What Braun has been able to do to combat that is go deeper into counts and foul more pitches off. Only 59.9% of pitches that Braun has seen have gone for strikes. In 447 pitches this season, Braun has swung at just 42.2% of them. That again is a career low.

Even better, Braun has done incredible damage in the limited number of times he has swung the bat. His line drive percentage sits at a staggering 25.7%, which is more than 6% higher than any other point in his career. Of the 26 fly balls Braun has hit, nine have left the yard for an unbelievable 34.4% HR/FB ratio. Can he maintain those numbers, obviously not, but Braun has some things going for him.

His BABIP in 2011 currently sits at .353. While that is surely high, it's not that far off his career average of .336. His pitches per at bat currently sits at 4.14, which again is a career high. These are numbers that Braun could maintain and would continue to mean incredible success at the dish.

All said, in the month of April, Ryan Braun, along with Prince Fielder have carried the Brewers offense. In just 90 at bats, Braun has already produced a 1.4 WAR. While that is pretty unheard of, think of how tough that is with the defense Braun plays. According to UZR, Braun's defense is already four runs under league average this season. If he was just producing at a league average rate, the Braun's WAR would be right near two. Wow. If Braun is even a shell of what he produced this month, Brewers fans are in for quite a show.

Brewers Extend Braun

2011-04-21T17:23:00.000-07:00

The Milwaukee Brewers announced Thursday, they have agreed to a five-year extension with left fielder Ryan Braun. The contract, which locks up Braun through 2020, is for $105 million.

I think every Brewer fan would be lying if they said they saw this coming. The biggest flaw in this deal is Braun was already locked up cheaply through 2015 (age 32). Essentially, the risk just is too steep. Extending Braun an additional five years was just not that necessary.

Contrary to what you may think after reading this article, Ryan Braun is one of my favorite players. The point of this article is not to say Braun is a bad player, he isn't. The point is not to say this contract is a terrible waste of money, it isn't. However, the point of this article is to analyse the strategy the Brewers used in locking up their young superstar.

To start, let's look at where the Brewers and Ryan Braun stood prior to Thursday's extension. Braun had $40.5 million and five years remaining on his old contract, which Braun signed in 2008. Now of course, Braun would be worth more money when that contract would've ran out assuming he stayed healthy and kept a similar performance up.

The breakdown of this article is not saying the value isn't there. Again, if he stays healthy and keeps a similar performance level up, this is a bargain. Where my problem is with this deal is was it really necessary? Braun was already locked up through his prime at a very reasonable price. I question the reasoning in rushing to sign Braun for his age 33-37 seasons for $21 million annually.

The biggest problem with the signing is the things the Brewers just don't know. Sure, Braun's doesn't have a history riddled with injuries, but what's to say he's going to stay healthy throughout the entire contract. In addition, there has to be some concern about Braun's ability near the end of his career. Sure, we aren't talking the same risk of an Alfonso Soriano type contract, but that's not to say some uncertainty isn't there.

Could Braun remain an incredible hitter throughout the rest of his time with the Brewers, yes. Could Braun also fall off and have a large contract with average production near the end of his career? Yes. That's the problem with this deal. There is some reward if everything works out until the end. However, that reward doesn't outweigh the potential problems that could arise.

Cause for Concern: John Axford

2011-04-19T10:51:00.000-07:00

There are many out there who immediately diagnosed John Axford as trouble after the first game of the season against the Cincinnati Reds. Axford blew a three run lead and the Brewers lost their opening game 7-6. The scrutiny didn't really seem all that warranted considering just how effective Axford was last season. After all, it was one inning. That's pretty simple to shake off.

What transpired over the next couple of outings is where concern really starts to set in for Brewers fans. The problem seems rather easy to diagnose: he's not throwing strikes. However, that really isn't the problem at all, which leads to even more confusion.

At the moment, Axford has thrown a total of 136 pitches this season. Of those 136, 82 have gone for strikes, or 60.3%. While that isn't the highest strike percentage, it's not that bad. Take Axford's 2010 for comparaison. Last season, Axford threw strikes on 607 of his 989 pitches. That translates into 61.4% pitches thrown for strikes. Sure that is better than this season, but really doesn't seem to be the problem.

Axford seemed to have a tendency to get batters to swing at pitches out of the zone last season. To the naked eye, that ability has eluded him this year. However, again, this doesn't seem to be the problem. In fact, Axford has actually gotten hitters to swing at a higher percentage of pitches outside the strike zone this year (33.9%), than last year (32.1%). It's not like the hitters aren't chasing pitches, they are. Where Axford's problem lies is what happens when the chase those pitches.

This season, despite getting hitters to chase balls, they are making contact with them. This surely has a direct correlation to where Axford's pitches have been. Axford has seemed to lose control of the slider that was so deadly last season. Time and time again, Axford has left his slider up this season. When it's up and possibly missing the strike zone, it's much easier to make contact than when it's sharp and diving out of it. So far this year, batters are making contact at a 89.5% rate of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Last season, those same pitches were only hit 57.3% of the time when the batter swung.

Are Axford's six walks in 6.1 innings a concern? Sure. Were Axford's control troubles in Philadelphia Monday apparent? Yes. Outings like Monday are going to happen for pitchers like Axford. Where my concern lies in is where Axford is throwing pitches. A floating slider is easy to hit, even if it is a ball. Pitches are going to walk batters if they are unable to get batters to swing and miss at pitches out of the strike zone. Until Axford is able to regain the biting slider from last season, the ninth inning will be a concern for Brewers fans.

Production Without Main Pieces

2011-04-14T22:03:00.000-07:00

When the Milwaukee Brewers broke camp just two weeks ago, they were without some very big members of their club. Starting the year on the disabled list were newly acquired ace Zack Greinke, the power hitting right fielder Corey Hart and starting catcher Jonathan Lucroy. The goal for many was to simply keep the boat afloat until those clogs returned. That proved pretty tough in the beginning.

The Brewers started their season in Cincinnati, getting swept in the process by the Reds. After an opening day loss to the Atlanta Braves, the Brewers then found themselves 0-4 and having many questions to answer. Was this team really capable of making a run at the division? Was the bullpen really improved? Could they be okay for the time being until their weapons returned?

What this team has over the past eight games in answer all those questions with a resounding yes.

In an offensive where Carlos Gomez, Yuniesky Bentancourt, Erick Almonte and Mark Kotsay receive regular playing time, a lot of responsibility falls squarely on the backs of the pitching staff. That pitching staff has taken that responsibility and ran with it. Over the past eight games, Brewers pitchers have thrown a combined 72 innings. Of those 72, 52.2 innings have come from Brewers staring pitching. That's an average start of just under 6.2 innings per start.

If there is one thing that has troubled the Brewers over the past couple of seasons, it has been inconsistent pitching that has led to the bullpen picking up too many innings. Sure the Brewers starters struggled last season, but them wearing out the bullpen had just as much to do with the 26th ranked 'pen in baseball as those relievers did. The formula for success is simple. Good starting pitching leads to good relief pitching. If the Brewers are able to pitch deep into games, they have plenty of arms down in the bullpen who are talented enough to get batters out. Over the past eight games, that is why the Brewers are winning. Here are their numbers respectively.

Brewers Starters: 6-1, 52.2 IP, 2.22 ERA, 40 K, 14 BB

Brewers Bullpen: 1-0, 19.1 IP, 1.39 ERA, 14 K, 9 BB

That's equates to a very impressive team ERA of 2.00 over that eight game stretch. With no coincidence, the Brewers are 7-1 in that same span and have climbed two games above .500.

What's even more encouraging is where this team could go. Keep in mind, this is all without the Brewers best starting pitcher, starting right fielder and best catcher (played just last two games). When Greinke returns, the Brewers, in my opinion, will have the second best rotation in baseball. When Hart returns, he takes the place of a platoon, Kotsay and Almonte, currently hitting .152/.222/.273/.495.

These are all very good signs to see out of a ballclub who was just looking to tread water until their big guns came back. If there pitching staff is able to pitch anywhere near there until then, treading water should be no problem. In fact, playing winning baseball should be the new goal.

Randy Wolf's Rough Start

2011-04-13T22:06:00.000-07:00

It's very easy to fall into the trap of thinking Randy Wolf is back to his old antics after two very rough starts to begin 2011. He's back surrendering home run after home run and looks to be dealing with some of the problems that caused him a rough start to 2010. Well, looks can be deceiving.

Let's start with the obvious statement. The defense played behind Wolf this season has been pretty bad. In his last start against the Northsiders, Wolf allowed six runs, but only two were earned. It started in the fourth inning when Rickie Weeks dropped a pop up off the bat of Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez then scored on a home run from Geovany Soto. Later in the inning, Wolf surrendered a three run HR off the bat of Jeff Baker, which broke the game open. A case could be made that those runs would have never scored had Weeks caught the ball.

I don't really subscribe to that style of reasoning, but the argument could be made.

For me, Wolf's start has had some encouraging signs, but has been marred with unfortunate numbers with little chance of continuing. The first start that jumped off the page to me was the amount of fly balls that are leaving the park against Wolf. Wolf has allowed 11 fly balls this season, four of which have gone for long balls. That equates to a ridiculous HR/FB% of 36.4%.

What I take from that is something completely different and positive. When Wolf has gotten into trouble, he has allowed too many balls in the air. This season, Wolf is currently sporting a very nice 1.55 GB:FB ratio. If Wolf is able to stay anywhere near there, he will have a very good 2011.

Another good indication for future success is Wolf's continued control. After a miserable first half in 2010, Wolf was able to significantly improve his strikeout and walk numbers in the second half. He has managed to maintain those numbers after a very shaky spring training. Through his first 10 innings this season, Wolf has struck out ten batters, while walking just three.

Take Wolf's start for what is it. Any pitcher can have two bad outings. What makes a pitcher successful is prolonged success. If Wolf is able to keep up what he is doing currently, things will turn around. However, if he reverts back to his first half of 2010 form, the Brewers could be in trouble. During his time in Milwaukee, you really don't know what Randy Wolf is going to show up. One thing is for sure, facing the Pirates is a lot easier than the Reds and Cubs lineups which can thrive against left handed pitching.

The Conundrum in Center

2011-04-11T23:14:00.000-07:00

Just 10 games into 2011 and there seems to be an interesting storyline developing. Who should start in center field this season for the Milwaukee Brewers?

The job was handed this offseason to Carlos Gomez early. The Brewers made it known that center field was not up for grabs and Gomez was going to start everyday. While I still feel this is the thought with many of the Brewers officials, fans don't seem so convinced. In the first two weeks of the season, they have seemed to side with Nyjer Morgan and his hot bat and good defensive plays. While the play of Morgan has been exciting, I'd argue the excitement surrounding Morgan has just as much to do with the early struggles of Gomez.

It seems like the same story year after year for Gomez. An inability to get on base, with far too many strikeouts and good defensive ability. While I'm not arguing that his defense isn't valuable to the team, I don't think it should solidify him into the everyday lineup batting second. Gomez has proved time and time again he should be nowhere near the top of the order and his value lies pretty much entirely in his glove.

In theory, that would mean Nyjer Morgan would be a lock for that job, but a closer look would suggest Morgan also has some issues. He also excels with the glove and is a better hitter than Gomez in my opinion. However, his ability to take over in center full time is hampered by his inability to hit left handed pitching. Morgan's numbers against lefties over the past three seasons are as follows.

(AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)

Morgan vs LHP:

2008: .240/.321/.320/.641, 25 AB's
2009: .175/.283/.223/.507, 103 AB's
2010: .200/.280/.252/.532, 135 AB's

Simply put, Morgan should never be allowed to face left handed pitching. Easy solution, right? Gomez is a righty and would make an ideal platoon option with Morgan. Well, it's not that simple. Here are Gomez' numbers against lefties during that same time frame.

Gomez vs LHP:

2008: .270/.310/.403/.713, 159 AB's
2009: .204/.275/.333/.608, 108 AB's
2010: .196/.271/.309/.580, 97 AB's

Obviously, those numbers are better than Morgan's but still not something a team would want in their everyday lineup. However, one thing that is impossible to overlook is Morgan's numbers against right handers.

Morgan vs RHP:

2008: .304/.349/.385/.734, 135 AB's
2009: .344/.395/.434/.829, 366 AB's
2010: .273/.333/.337/.670, 374 AB's

While those 2010 numbers aren't impressive, that was his worst season during his career. Despite that, it seems rather obvious that against righties, Nyjer Morgan should be starting over Carlos Gomez in center field. I understand the Brewers still want Gomez to succeed and still want to give him a chance, but starting him over Morgan against righties is not justifiable. Sure Gomez may struggle mightily against lefties, but that is where he should get his playing time. If he reverts back to his 2008 form against them, it would be a huge lift to the Brewers. In the meantime, the recipe for success seems pretty obvious: Morgan vs RHP and Gomez vs LHP.

The Wil Nieves Experiment

2011-04-05T13:34:00.000-07:00

When the Milwaukee Brewers signed Wil Nieves this offseason, I thought little of it. The Brewers had two catchers who were clearly better than Nieves and he would likely play in the minor leagues, if at all for the Brewers organization.

That was until Jonathan Lucroy fractured his pinkie and had to start the season on the disabled list.

That injury left the Brewers with just one healthy catcher on the roster (George Kottaras) and hoisted Nieves into relevance. Just how relevant he would be was up for debate though. Based on his prior ability to perform in the major leagues, Nieves couldn't have expected much playing time. At age 33, playing Nieves has hardly any upside. So why is he getting at bats over George Kottaras?

Last season, Nieves had an absolutely terrible .244 OBP in 158 at bats for the Washington Nationals. While that may be a small sample size, Nieves has never really been known to have anything other than a strong defensive presence. His wOBA over the past three seasons are .285, .277 and .241. Those kind of numbers don't belong in the major leagues regardless of how good that player is defensively.

What also should come into question is just how good of a defensive catcher Nieves is. Over the past three seasons, base runners have stolen successfully on Nieves 75.9% (104 SB, 33 CS) of the time. Nieves' throw out percentage of 25.1% is right around the league average.

It's understood the Brewers have a problem at catcher until Lucroy returns. The problem with it is how they are handling that problem. Playing Will Nieves over George Kottaras everyday is the wrong decision. Kottaras is a superior hitter over Nieves and should be getting regular playing time. Sure, Kottaras struggles behind the plate defensively, but with Corey Hart and Lucroy out, the Brewers need every offensive option in the lineup. Starting Wil Nieves against right handed pitching just confuses me.

Series Preview: Cincinnati Reds

2011-03-31T01:29:00.000-07:00

Thursday March 31st

Brewers- Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Reds- Edinson Volquez (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Gallardo looked very strong this spring. In just 18.1 innings, he struck out 23, while only issuing five walks. While I rarely looked to deeply into spring training, those are encouraging numbers from Yo.

I officially have no idea what to expect out of Volquez. Could he return to his 2008 (pre-injury) form, or will he be relegated to his injury plagued seasons of 2009 and 2010? Based on his velocity and location, I'd say the latter. If he keep the current pace he was on each of the past two seasons, it could be a huge red flag for the Reds.

Edge: Brewers

Saturday April 2nd

Brewers- Shaun Marcum (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Reds- Travis Wood (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Since the Brewers acquired Marcum this past offseason, fans were looking forward to the third game in Cincinnati. While an injury to Zach Greinke may have bumped Marcum's debut up a start, it did little to temper my excitement. It's funny how the Brewers can go from having a horrendous pitching staff last season to having the luxury of Shaun Marcum as your third best starter. I look for a big season out of Shaun.

The Reds have to be utterly thrilled over the progression of Travis Wood. After a very average 2009 season in the minors, Wood excelled in 2010. It first started at AAA Louisville and only continued after joining the Reds mid-season. I do expect his numbers this season to regress, but that doesn't mean he won't be a clog in the Reds rotation for years to come. Regardless, I'll take my chances with Marcum over him any day of the week.

Edge: Brewers

Sunday

Brewers- Randy Wolf (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Reds- Bronson Arroyo (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Wolf's 2010 was about as jekyll and hyde as they come. After statistically ranking as one of the worst pitchers in the first half of the season, many, including myself, immediately regretted the large contract he received after 2009. However, Wolf was able to rebound and salvage 2010 with an impressive second half. He began pitching deeper into games, something the Brewers signed him for. If Wolf pitching like he did in the second half this season, it could go a long way in a Brewers run at the division.

Arroyo is another interesting case for the Reds. He saw his K/9 drop last season to nearly five. Sure Bronson doesn't issue many free passes, but that's getting pretty close to danger-zone. While Arroyo may be regressing a little, he is still proven himself every year as a solid pitcher. He's combined for a WAR near 14 over the past five seasons. While the majority of that may be front loaded, he still seems like he has plenty left in his take.

Edge: Reds

Series Prediction: Brewers take two out of three.

Brewers Acquire Morgan from Nats

2011-03-27T18:13:00.000-07:00

After the trade of Chris Dickerson, it became pretty apparent the Brewers were in a pretty desperate state for an outfielder. With just Carlos Gomez as an option in center field, the Brewers quickly acted. On Sunday, they nabbed Nyjer Morgan from the Washington Nationals in exchange for Cutter Dykstra and cash.

It was pretty obvious that Morgan and the Nats wanted a split. This week, Morgan was quoted as saying, "Maybe I'm not a fit here anymore. It's time to move on." His personal battle with Jim Riggleman became news pretty much everyday. It got to the point where Morgan simply wasn't going to be a part of the plans in Washington.

Morgan, 30, is always a player I have seemed to like. He's a very good defense centerfielder and shows serviceable patience at the plate. While his career walk rate of just over 7% isn't exactly amazing, when you're backing up Carlos Gomez (career BB% of 5.1%), it looks decent. Plus, he's got a pretty nasty left hook.

Morgan does have some problems with his game. Most notably, Morgan seems to be prone to making outs on the bases. Last season, he had just a 67% success rate while stealing bases, getting caught 17 times. He is coming off a very disappointing 2010 where he hit just .253/.319/.314 in 509 at bats for Washington. Also, Nyjer isn't exactly what you would consider a power hitter. His isolated power (ISO) numbers over the past couple of seasons have been really bad (.081, .081, .061). That rarely translates into a very good slugging percentage, of which Morgan's career high is just .430, which was only in 118 AB's.

In return for Morgan, the Nationals received pretty decent compensation for someone they were likely going to release. Cutter Dykstra isn't exactly a top prospect, but did show some promise last season in A-ball. In 353 at bats last season, Dykstra posted a rather impressive .312/.416/.411 line. I wouldn't look too much into that seeing as that was the first impressive season for the 21-year old third baseman.

Take this move for what it is: insurance. The Brewers had absolutely zero options if Carlos Gomez struggled out of the gate. In getting Morgan, the Brewers now have that insurance. I'd be very surprised if Gomez was given a long leash considering a capable backup is waiting behind him. Morgan is just two years removed from a very impressive season where he posted a 4.9 WAR. Is that a realistic goal for Morgan? No, but it's not too unlikely he will outproduce Carlos Gomez this season.

Brewers Deal Dickerson, Acquire Mitre

2011-03-25T09:38:00.001-07:00

The Brewers made a surprising move today, sending Chris Dickerson to the New York Yankees in exchange for RHP Sergio Mitre.

I have to say, this trade really shocks me. If there was one position the Brewers were overwhelmingly questionable at, it was center field. In Dickerson, the Brewers had a perfect option to replace Carlos Gomez if he struggled out of the gate again.

While the trade may shock me, I do understand what the Brewers were trying to accomplish in this deal. With Zack Greinke banged up for a couple of regular season starts, the Brewers were scrambling for some depth at starting pitching. In Mitre, the Brewers are getting another option who has starting pitching experience in the major leagues. However, experience doesn't necessarily translate to success.

While Mitre, 30, hasn't been completely useless in his career, he hasn't exactly been tearing it up either. Over the last three seasons, he is striking out just five batters per nine innings. He has been able to keep his walks down (2.51 BB/9), but still isn't blowing anyone away. During that same stretch, Mitre has a FIP near five. The one thing Mitre has been solid at is his ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.9% last season). If he is able to keep those walks down and the ball on the ground, he should be somewhat useful in Miller Park.

While weighing the positives and negatives in this deal, it's pretty clear the Brewers got the worse of this trade. By trying to salvage a couple of starts out of Mitre, the Brewers have really put themselves in trouble in the outfield. With Corey Hart likely headed to the DL, the Brewers outfield other than Braun and Gomez will consist of Brandon Boggs, Jeremy Reed and Mark Kotsay. That's troublesome to say the least. If anything, I was excited to see Dickerson get regular playing time while Hart was out.

The Brewers had internal options who were just as good, if not better than Mitre. Marco Estrada has looked very good this spring and likely loses his chance with this trade. Even if he were to come out and struggle, it would've likely been for only a couple of starts. Why deal a need for something that isn't as necessary.

In the grand scheme of things, this trade may not make or break the Brewers 2011 season. However, downgrading at positions that are very frail to begin with is never a good decision. The Brewers have been linked to Nyjer Morgan and I'm really hoping something gets done on that end. Call me crazy, but I'm just not that confident in the center field with what the Brewers currently have.

The Weeks Extension

2011-02-16T12:38:00.000-08:00

The Milwaukee Brewers announced Wednesday they have agreed to a four year extension with second baseman Rickie Weeks. The deal, in its entirety, would pay Weeks $38.5 million through the 2014 season, with an $11.5 million option for 2015.

This news could not have come at a more opportune time. Weeks had taken an Albert Pujols like stance on negotiating his contract with the Brewers. With Weeks' deadline fast approaching, give both sides credit in getting this deal done.

When analyzing this deal, it seems to be a simple case of risk reward. While Rickie was entirely healthy in the 2010 season, his past has been something that raises flags. When looking at Weeks, you can't overlook the injuries that have plagued him in his career. However, you also can't dismiss the incredible talent he has showed when staying healthy. This season, Weeks was able to put everything together in a very impressive 6.1 WAR, which ranked highest among all Brewers.

When looking at contracts in baseball, it generally is broken down by who got a better deal; the player, or the team. Then, based on that assumption, the deal is either looked at positively, or negatively. In this case, it seems pretty clear that both sides won. Weeks, 28, succeeded in securing his future financial responsibilities and the Brewers got a top of the line talent for cheap.

Weeks was going to become a free agent after this season. For arguments sake, let's say Weeks stayed healthy and replicated his 2010 production. On the free agent market, Weeks could have easily fetched $15 million per season. Elite, power hitting second basemen are tough to come by, especially ones who are prone to draw walks. Worst case scenario, if Weeks' injury problems resurface, the Brewers are only on the hook for four seasons. Having that $11.5 as a safety zone makes this deal look even better for the Brewers. Based on fair market value, Weeks would have to accrue 10 WAR during the length of his contract. With his talent, Weeks should easily surpass that number.

This contract will take Weeks through his age 32 season. Getting a player of Rickie's caliber, in his prime, for this price is an absolute steal. Sure he has a tendency to strike out, but Weeks is able to combat that with power and patience. Getting him locked up will go along way to securing the success of this franchise for years to come. The future after 2012 may have looked dark before today, but that just got much brighter. Congratulations to Gord Ash, Doug Melvin and the Milwaukee Brewers on a fantastic offseason.

Ranking the Staff

2011-02-07T13:47:00.000-08:00

Since the acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum, there has been a lot of talk of just how good the Brewers starting staff is. With the value that is put on starting pitching in today's game, it shouldn't be surprising that there are numerous teams with strong pitching staffs. Let's take a look at how the Brewers staff ranks amongst the best. For a general reference point, we will be using their 2010 WAR.

Milwaukee Brewers

Zack Greinke (5.2 WAR)
Yovani Gallardo (4.6 WAR)
Shaun Marcum (3.5 WAR)
Randy Wolf (0.7 WAR)
Chris Narveson (1.7 WAR)

Brewers Staff- 14.7 WAR

Philadelphia Phillies

Roy Halladay (6.6 WAR)
Cliff Lee (7.1 WAR)
Roy Oswalt (4.7 WAR)
Cole Hamels (3.8 WAR)
Joe Blanton (1.9 WAR)

Phillies Staff- 24.1 WAR

San Francisco Giants

Tim Lincecum (5.1 WAR)
Matt Cain (4.0 WAR)
Jonathan Sanchez (2.6 WAR)
Madison Bumgarner (2.0 WAR)
Barry Zito (2.1 WAR)

Giants Staff- 15.8 WAR

St. Louis Cardinals

Adam Wainwright (6.1 WAR)
Chris Carpenter (3.7 WAR)
Jaime Garcia (3.2 WAR)
Jake Westbrook (2.3 WAR)
Kyle Lohse (0.7 WAR)

Cardinals Staff- 16 WAR

Oakland Athletics

Dallas Braden (3.0 WAR)
Brett Anderson (2.6 WAR)
Trevor Cahill (2.2 WAR)
Gio Gonzalez (3.2 WAR)
Brandon McCarthy (DNP 1.3 WAR in 2009)

Athletics Staff- 12.3 WAR

Minnesota Twins

Francisco Liriano (6.0 WAR)
Carl Pavano (3.2 WAR)
Scott Baker (2.5 WAR)
Brian Duensing (1.7 WAR)
Nick Blackburn (0.4 WAR)

Twins Staff- 13.8 WAR

Based on this result, the rankings would go as follows for the best team staffs in baseball:

Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics

That's a pretty impressive jump for the Brewers, who finished 26th in team ERA last season. One thing to keep in mind is the way Randy Wolf's year went. Just after the all-star break, Wolf had pitched his way to a WAR of -1.0. He was able to find his stuff down the stretch and salvage 2010. If he is able to pitch that way in 2011, the Brewers could easily have the second best starting staff in baseball. Very encouraging news for Brewers fans accustomed to seeing large numbers posted on Miller Park's scoreboard for visiting teams.

Brewers Ink Saito

2010-12-27T14:14:00.000-08:00

One of the biggest questions for the Brewers this offseason was relief pitching. They took a huge step forward today and addressed that concern by signing veteran right-hander Takashi Saito. According to reports, Saito can earn up to $3.2 million this season if he reaches all of his performance bonuses.

Believe it or not, last season's bullpen wasn't all that bad. Despite ranking near the bottom of baseball in ERA, their peripherals suggested a bit of bad luck was to blame. It was concerning to see the Brewers demolish the eight best bullpen in baseball according to FIP, but changes have been frequent this offseason. The Brewers cut ties with Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey and Trevor Hoffman in past couple of months.

Saito, 40, is an upgrade over any of those pitchers if he can stay healthy. After suffering a major arm injury in 2008, many were concerned about the veteran regaining his form. Despite a drop off in his production in 2009, Saito returned to his dominant form in 2010. While pitching for the Braves last season, Saito was incredible. He registered a very impressive 69 strikeouts in just 54 innings, good for a 11.5 K/9 rate. His control also came back as he walked just 17, or a 2.83 BB/9. That good control and movement led to a 2.83 ERA, which just do happened to be his highest while pitching in North America. He also had his highest groundball rate of his career, inducing 43.6% of hitters to keep the ball out of the air. The increased strikeout and GB rates, coupled with better control was good enough to produce a very good 2.43 FIP.

What's even more to like is the price of Saito. Sure injuries and Saito's age are a concern, but they also really helped the Brewers in negotiations. If Saito was a little younger and a more reliable to stay healthy, he would have easily been able to garner a three-year deal, which has been handed out on numerous occations this offseason. But due to those factors, Saito comes really cheap. Better yet, even if Saito is injured, his entire contract isn't even guaranteed. Reports are that the Saito base contract is worth less than $2 million. A really good price for a really good pitcher.

With the signing of Saito, the Brewers now have addressed their bullpen issues. Near the end of games, opposing teams will have to contend with Saito, John Axford and Zach Braddock. If the Brewers are able to bring back Chris Carpuano in a bullpen role, I would assume the roster would be complete. That's one pretty indimidating pitching staff.

E-6

2010-12-20T13:26:00.001-08:00

This post is not going to be about just how bad Yunieski Bentancourt is. I know, it's tempting to write one so close to acquiring one of the worst players in baseball, but not this post. This going back to one major error the Brewers organization made during last offseason.

Pretty much everyone remembers the trade. The Brewers sent J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Carlos Gomez. Immediately, the were many skeptics of this trade. What was even more disappointing was the way the Brewers handled their excess shortstops they had at the time.

The reason the Brewers were so ready to trade Hardy was the young shortstop waiting in the wings: Alcides Escobar. Escobar, 22 at the time, was just coming off a nice season where he actually hit pretty well. In AAA, Escobar had a pretty impressive .298/.353/.409 line, while playing just about everyday. He was then called up to the majors after J.J. Hardy's demotion to AAA. It seemed like an interesting move considering if Hardy stayed in the minors for the remainder of the Sounds' season, he wouldn't hit free agency until 2011. Hardy stayed down there and would have to wait (until after this season) to hit free agency.

However, the move also did another thing.

Sending Hardy to the minors was heavily criticized as the Brewers were just trying to gain another year of service time. While Hardy was struggling, I think everyone could agree this was the Brewers intended action. Hardy was not happy, but while under team control, what choice did he really have?

What happened that offseason was where the mistake occurred.

Hardy was immediately placed on the trading block. What irritated me about this was the way the Brewers did it. They never said Hardy had no chance to return to the club, but the writing was on the wall. They received offers from the Pirates and Orioles, but ended up deciding to go with Minnesota's offer of Gomez. Someone they thought could solidify centerfield in Milwaukee.

By giving the reigns over to Escobar and trading Hardy, the Brewers forced their hand. During his big league career, Hardy was always an asset to the Brewers. He had consecutive 4.0+ WAR seasons prior to 2009. Even in 2009, despite struggling with the bat, his defense was again incredible, as he was still able to post a 1.4 WAR season.

My question to Doug Melvin is, what was the rush? Hardy was under team control and still pretty cheap. Why start Alcides Escobar's service clock a year early? Hardy could have, and should have remained in Milwaukee in 2010. The correct move would have been to let Escobar get more at bats in AAA, further making him ready once 2011 came. There was no question how much Escobar struggled in 2010. A extra year of experience in AAA could have been the remedy.

If the Brewers would have done this, nothing would have affected yesterday's trade. Escobar would have been sent to Kansas City as part of the package and the Brewers would still have Hardy on the team under one more season of control. How appropriate is it the Brewers are now in NL contention and have two glaring weak spots to go along with a great rotation? Carlos Gomez (CF) was traded for Hardy and Yunieski Bentancourt (SS) now plays in the spot where Hardy would have been. Knee jerk reactions, like the Brewers had last season, lead to mistakes. In baseball, mistakes can be very costly.

Brewers Land Greinke; Send Package

2010-12-19T10:06:00.000-08:00

The Brewers said this offseason they were looking to add two starters after a dismal 2010. After acquiring Shaun Marcum less than two weeks ago, the Brewers made a huge splash today in reeling in Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals. Along with Greinke, Yunieski Bentancourt heads to Milwaukee in exchange for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress.

My first reaction to this trade was skepticism. There is no question Greinke is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but at what cost was he coming to Milwaukee. A lot of young talent was shipped in this trade. Young talent that also was very cheap and could have helped for a longtime. It's very difficult to analyse this trade considering just how many variables go into it.

The Good

In Greinke, the Brewers have landed an absolute ace and now have one of the best rotations in all of baseball. Placing Greinke with Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf and Narveson, the Brewers rotation really only trails the Philadelphia Phillies compilation of studs. If this season can tell us anything, pitching wins games in baseball. With the staff the Brewers have assembled this offseason, winning games should happen pretty often in Milwaukee. At least for the next two years.

Greinke, 27, is locked up through the 2012, making $13.5 million each of the next two seasons. With a contract extension with Greinke being very tough, this essentially is the window for the Brewers to win. Over the past three seasons, Greinke has racked up an average WAR of 6.5 a season. That was highlighted by his 2009 season, where after posting a 9.4 WAR, he was awarded the American League Cy Young award. He regressed a little bit last season and saw his ERA raise from 2.16 in 2009, to 4.17 in 2010. While a drop in strikeouts could have been to blame, I would say his numbers were a little skewed by a low LOB% (runners left on base). His career average was 76.3% before last season, but he saw that fall to 65.3%. His FIP of 3.34 last season is a much better representation of where his numbers should have been. Coming over to the NL Central, Greinke should thrive. There is no question he could be a Cy Young candidate again in 2011.

It was really tough to see Lorenzo Cain go in this deal. He has been a pleasant surprise during his time in Milwaukee. Couple that with him playing meant Carlos Gomez wasn't, and many will understand just why Cain quickly became a fan favorite here. But, by all accounts, this was the right time to sell Cain. High. There's no question Cain posted good numbers while in Milwaukee, but he had two things working against him.

Cain's BABIP was one of the main reasons he was excelling. During his three stints in different levels last year, Cain had BABIP's of .402, .371 and .370. There is no doubt those numbers are unsustainable and will come down. If Cain is going to be a good major league player, his strikeout numbers need to come down from the 20% range. If he continues to strikeout at that pace, his value will be limited.

The Bad

Yunieski Bentancourt. Yikes. In trading for Bentancourt the Brewers have acquired one of the worst shortstops in baseball. He can't hit. He doesn't walk. He's not fast. He doesn't play defense. That about sums up Bentancourt's game. His career line of .272/.296/.393 is not inspiring. He does have some power, which should only improve after trading in the very large ballparks in Seattle and KC for Miller Park. He was able to post a career high 16 home runs last season. Even though, if you are expecting a good hitter in return, keep dreaming.

But wait, Alcides Escobar couldn't hit either. While that may be true, Escobar was at least capable with the glove. Bentancourt isn't. Over the past three seasons, his UZR of -37.6 ranks at the bottom for major league shortstops. In 2009, Bentancourt had a -16.7 UZR, the same season where he had an incredibly bad -1.7 WAR. Yes you read that correctly: a -1.7 WAR. The more playing time Bentancourt gets, if any, hurts the Brewers and the value of this trade. He has one year left on his contract, where the Brewers will need to pick up $3 million and a $2 million buyout the Royals will pick up next year in the trade. I really wonder if acquiring Greinke and Bentancourt together was the only way. My guess is it was.

The Brewers parted with a lot of cheap, young talent in this trade. The key to creating a successful franchise is building a good farm system and utilizing them before they are eligible to cash in big. By trading players like Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi and Jeffress, the Brewers forfeited that. The player I'm most worried about giving up in this trade is Odorizzi. Yes he is years away from the bigs, but he has all the tools to be a good front line starter. Parting with him and Jeffress, two pitching prospects, in the same trade is tough to swallow. Especially considering the lack of pitching prospect the Brewers have.

Wrap

After the trade was first announced, I was disappointed. I'm starting to come around to it however. The Brewers did give up a lot, but really didn't part with proven major league talent, or top tier prospects (other than Odorizzi). In order to acquire a pitcher like Greinke, you are going to have to give up talent. I think the Brewers gave up their share of that in this trade, but have set themselves up for a really good team for the next two years. What worries me is what happens after that. A trade that wipes out a good portion of your farm system can be very tough to cope with over the long haul. It's trades like that that can set up teams for prolonged periods of losing. I'm beyond excited for the next couple of seasons, but worried to say the least for what happens after that.

Monday's Rumors: Cain, Uehara, Loney

2010-12-06T09:52:00.000-08:00

The Brewers have moved quickly the past couple of days and apparently have no signs of slowing down. Here are the early rumors coming out of Orlando.

The Brewers are apparently willing to trade Lorenzo Cain in order to secure another starting pitcher, according to Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse. Trading Cain would mean Carlos Gomez starting everyday in centerfield. Yikes.

The Brewers are reportedly one of six teams who are interested in free agent reliever Koji Uehara, according to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. They say Uehara is Japanese for control. Let's see, 55 strikeouts and five walks. Yeah, I'd be interested too.

There have been some mumbling connecting the Brewers to James Loney, if Prince Fielder is dealt. This one comes from Ken Rosenthal, who cites sources. It's pretty tough to get excited about Loney, who has only posted a WAR above two once (2.1 in 2007). If Fielder is traded, Derrek Lee should be the bat coming back to Milwaukee via free agency in my opinion.

Stay tuned.

Brewers Acquire Marcum from Jays

2010-12-05T21:51:00.001-08:00

The Brewers went a long way in shoring up their 2011 rotation Sunday by trading for Toronto Blue Jays starter Shaun Marcum. However, the move didn't come cheap as the Brewers had to send one of their top prospects, Brett Lawrie, in exchange.

The early reaction I have gaged from this trade is Lawrie is a lot to give up for a pitcher like Shaun Marcum. That may be true, but I also believe many are underestimating the talent level of Marcum.

The evaluation of this trade breaks down to two different points.

1) Marcum's talent and health issues

2) Marcum's signability

3) Lawrie's future

When looking at the first point, there's little doubt that Marcum is a talented pitcher. Last season, he was able to post an ERA of 3.64 in the high powered AL East. That was right about where he should have been as he registered at a 3.74 FIP. Last season was highlighted by his sparkling 1.98 BB/9 and a strikeout to walk ratio of nearly four to one. Those are very good numbers, but there was also some concern with Marcum's finish to the season and how it related to his past.

Near the end of the 2008 season, Marcum left a start with elbow pain. Days later, it was revealed Marcum would have to undergo Tommy John surgery to repair a ligament in his pitching elbow. Marcum subsequently missed all of the 2009 season before returning to be the Blue Jays opening day starter in 2010. During the first half, Marcum cruised to a 3.44 ERA, but struggled in the second half. After the All-Star game, Marcum's ERA was more than a half run higher than prior to it. Many attributed it to his increased workload and shoulder fatigue after coming off the surgery. One closer look at the numbers revealed an increase in Marcum's strikeout rates, while decreasing the amount of walks he issued after the break. If anything, his peripherals would suggest he pitched a little better after the break last season.

To be successful in Milwaukee, Marcum will need to keep the ball on the ground more frequently. Prior to the injury, Marcum was able to induce groundballs better than 40% of the time in his career. In 2010, he saw that number drop to 38.4%. Not a huge dropoff, but something to look at in the future.

Many are hinging the success of this trade of if the Brewers are able to retain Marcum. Right now, Marcum is entering his second season of arbitration, meaning he'll hit the free agent market after the 2012 season. I'm personally very high on Marcum and think locking him up sooner than later is the correct route the Brewers should take. The closer Marcum comes to free agency, the more the Brewers are going to have to shell out to keep him. Coming off a serious arm injury, the risk does come high by doing this. However, having a full healthy season under him puts my mind at ease a bit. I also believe the injury could leave Marcum more willing to listen to extension offers and lock up his financial security for years to come. Word of out Milwaukee is the Brewers "think they have a chance to sign Marcum longterm," according to Ken Rosenthal.

On to Lawrie.

There is no question the Brewers parted with a valuable piece in this trade. Lawrie, 20, is one of, if not the Brewers top prospect. His major league service clock is yet to start ticking, giving him a full five or six seasons under team control. At AA Huntsville this season, the second baseman was able to post a pretty impressive .285/.346/.449 line in full time play. That equated to a very nice .361 wOBA. While Lawrie's offense seems to be progressing nicely, his glove work hasn't. There has long been questions on if Lawrie is too much of a liability to stay in the infield. Scouts have said it's an alarming problem that could easily land Lawrie in a corner outfield spot sooner than later. If that's the case, that really hurts Lawrie's value as slugging second basemen are much more difficult to find than a productive corner outfielder.

I'm not saying Lawrie wasn't a lot to give up, but I do like this trade for the Brewers. They landed a front line starting pitcher to help Yovani Gallardo atop the rotation. This year's playoffs are a perfect indication of just how important starting pitching is. By landing Marcum, the Brewers helped close the gap that they will need to overcome to compete in the National League. They may still be a pitcher away, but this is a step in the right direction.

Breaking Down the Carlos Villanueva Trade

2010-12-03T14:05:00.001-08:00

In a surprising move to say the least, the Milwaukee Brewers traded reliever Carlos Villanueva to the Toronto Blue Jays Friday. In return, the Brewers will receive a player to be named later in the deal.

Pretty safe to say this one came out of nowhere.

Just one day after essentially cutting ties with Todd Coffey, the Brewers wasted no time in dealing Villanueva. What the Brewers are set to get in return could a difficult answer.

The player to be named later tag doesn't always mean garbage is coming back. Sometimes there are matters that do not allow the player to be named during the deal. One of those matters would be the impending Rule 5 draft. So likely, the Brewers will be getting back one of Toronto's Rule 5 candidates. After quickly looking over the list, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers pick up Brad Emaus.

Emaus, 24, has put up solid numbers in each of the past couple season while playing in the Blue Jays minor league system. This culminated in 2010, where between AA and AAA, Emaus posted a .290/.398/.476 in 534 plate appearances. Those are some pretty impressive walk and power numbers from a second baseman. Also, selecting Emaus makes even more sense after recently letting Joe Inglett go. Better yet, Emaus is a right-handed bat, something the Brewers desperately need of the bench.

Of course, this is all speculation, but it seems like an okay return for Villanueva. I'm disappointed to see Villanueva go, but this is a much better way than if they were to just have non-tendered him. At least the Brewers are able to possibly get a useful piece in return.

Villanueva, 27, has a lot of talent. Last season, he struck out an incredible 11.45 batters per nine innings pitched. However, his inability to keep the ball on the ground usually is not a good recipe for success in hitter friendly Miller Park. Despite the high strikeout and low walk totals, Villanueva limped his way to a 4.61 ERA. His FIP would suggest he was a bit unlucky as he came in with a 3.74.

I've always like Villanueva. I think if he is put in the right situation, he would be a very good pitcher. I don't know if the right situation is Toronto though. The Rogers Centre is a tough park for a flyball pitcher like Villanueva to succeed. I hope he can bounce back, but it's tough to imagine running through the gauntlet of AL East lineups will help matters.

Time will tell if this move pays off, but the Brewers need to start it off correctly by selected Emaus as their return. Now down two bullpen arms, I expect the Brewers to heavily explore the free agent market for a reliever. Quite possibly, they could even select one in next weeks Rule 5 draft. One thing is for sure, as of now, the talent in the Brewers bullpen has talent a step back.

Brewers Non-Tender Inglett, Coffey

2010-12-02T23:36:00.000-08:00

The Milwaukee Brewers decided to cut ties with pitcher Todd Coffey and infielder Joe Inglett Thursday. Here are some quotes from Brewers General Manager Doug Melvin on the moves.

Todd Coffey:

"We felt we'd look at what else is out there. I talked to Todd and he understood. This gives us more flexibility with our money."

While there is no way to argue not signing Coffey frees up money, there are some things to be cautious about in that statement. It leads me to believe the Brewers are going to test the free agent market for help in the bullpen. Contracts in recent seasons are exhibit A on just how risky that proposition can be. Just last season, over $11 million was shelled out to Latroy Hawkins and Trevor Hoffman, who responded with a combined ERA over seven. I'm not saying that bargains can't be found out there, but I think the Brewers dropped the ball here. If I had the chance to sign Todd Coffey to a one year deal with little financial risk, there's no way I'm passing that up.

Joe Inglett

"We wanted to keep ourselves open there. I told Joe we might get back to him if he doesn't find something else. He did a good job for us."

Despite struggling horribly near the end of the season, Inglett have a solid season in Milwaukee. I was a little more surprised with this move considering how successful Inglett was off the bench. However, that's not to say I didn't understand it. If there were some thing the Brewers struggled with last season, it was the lack of a right handed bat and power off the bench. By non-tendering Joe Inglett, the Brewers allow themselves room to address those problems. Generally speaking, utility infielders who can handle the bat are tough to come by and many would question this move. However, looking at the state of Milwaukee's bench, I would argue this was the correct move.

To Tender or Not: Todd Coffey

2010-12-02T00:46:00.001-08:00

With less than 24 hour before Thursday's 11 PM CT non-tender deadline, the Milwaukee Brewers have an interesting question to answer. Should they tender a contract to Todd Coffey?

Coffey was a Cincinnati castaway during the 2008 season. With a bilegured bullpen, the Brewers quickly snatched up the righty and never looked back. Over the final weeks of the '08 season and all of 2009, Coffey was arguably Milwaukee's most consistent reliever. During that year plus, Coffey logged 91 innings while posting a very strong 2.67 ERA. His peripherals also suggested this was no fluke.

Over that time, Coffey's K:BB ratio was nearly 3.5:1. Coffey always excelled during his career as a groundball specialist, which followed him to the Brew City. His GB:FB rate check in strongly at 1.25. There was little to suggest a fall off was coming. Well, in 2010, those peripherals didn't really fall off at all. In fact, Coffey was able to check in with a career high 8.1 K/9. Problem for Coffey was that also came with some regression in other areas. He walked nearly one more batter per nine innings and watched his groundball rate go from 52.3% to 47.6%. Making matters worse, his HR/FB rate increased to his highest since arriving in Milwaukee. Coffey surrendered the same amount of dingers in 21 fewer innings between 2009 and 2010.

In the end, this all lead to a lofty 4.76 ERA for Coffey. By anyone's account, one can assume luck wasn't on Coffey's side in 2010 (His FIP was more than a half run less at 4.20). The real question for the Brewers is what do they do now?

Todd Coffey made just north of $2 million last season. If the Brewers offer him arbitration, he is likely going to see a raise despite his troubles. For sake of keeping it simple, let's assume that if offered, Coffey's 2011 salary would check in right under $3 million. So, is Todd Coffey worth that figure next season? Many say no, I say yes.

Although bullpen help can come cheaply from the minor leagues (i.e. 2010 Milwaukee Brewers), there are just too many unanswered questions for the Brewers to non-tender Todd Coffey. Despite his poor performance in 2011, Coffey is still a workhorse out of the bullpen. The past couple of season's, the Brewers bullpen has been extremely overworked. Is it really worth saving the $3 million we could give to Coffey just to watch the same problem happen year in and year out? Sure a lot of blame lies with starting pitching, but once in the bullpen, a team needs guys who are able to go multiple innings, or pitch in back to back games. If there is one thing Coffey has proved in his time in Milwaukee, it's that he is always ready to take the ball.

I fully expect Coffey's number to revert back to normal. Does that mean a sub-three ERA next season? Maybe not, but I highly doubt that a 4.00+ ERA is in store in 2011. I fully agree wasting money in the bullpen can be a huge mistake. Maybe I'm missing something here, but tendering Todd Coffey would hardly be a waste.

End of Season Awards

2010-10-03T17:40:00.000-07:00

The Milwaukee Brewers lost Sunday, wrapping their season up with a 77-85 record. Let's take a look at the team awards.

MVP: Rickie Weeks

This was a lot easier for me than most would think. Sure Corey Hart had a higher batting average, more home runs and more RBI's, but this argument isn't even close. Weeks plays second base, while Corey Hart plays in right field. Second base tends to be a much lighter hitting position than the average right fielder would produce. Secondly, Weeks plays average defense, while Hart is an absolute hack in the field. This season, advanced fielding statistics said Weeks's defense saved the Brewers 1.6 this season. Hart's troubles ended up costing the Brewers 5.9 runs in the same measure.

Anyway, Weeks posted an incredible 6.0 WAR on the season. That was the highest on the club by far. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder finished tied for second with a 4.3 WAR each. Rickie Weeks is a very good player who deserved a healthy season to show what he could do. He got that in 2010 and didn't disappoint.

Cy Young: Yovani Gallardo

Yovani, much like in 2009, was a lone wolf this season. The pitching struggles that cost the Brewers this season had little to do with their ace. Here's what you need to know:

31 Games Started
185 Innings Pitched
3.84 ERA
3.03 FIP
200 Strikeouts
75 Walks
178 Hits

That 3.84 ERA doesn't do justice to just how good Yovani was this season. Anytime a pitcher nears 10 K/9, that's a very impressive season. For the year, Yovani was able to rack up a WAR of 4.6. He's an absolute run away for Cy Young of the staff considering the next closest pitcher in term of value was John Axford at 2.0. If Yovani is able to limit his walks a bit next season, the sky is the limit for him.

Comeback Player of the Year: Corey Hart

This a no brainer. The difference between 2009 Corey Hart and this season's version was astronomical. His ISO (isolated power) jumped nearly .100 points. His slugging percentage was raised by .105 points. Although his OBP stayed pretty much the same (.003 higher), he was a great #2 hitter. Betting behind Rickie Weeks led to a ton of RBI opportunities this season and Hart cashed in. He was one of three Brewers to reach the 100 RBI plateau. Pretty incredible for a guy who was nearly cut at the beginning of the season. Hopefully he is able to keep up this level of production after signing his healthy contract extension. If I were the Brewers, I would strongly consider moving Hart to first base to cover up his horrid defensive prowess (-5.9 UZR this season). Despite his struggles in the field, Hart still had a 3.3 WAR, or 2.6 wins better than 2009.

Rookie of the Year: John Axford

Talk about coming out of nowhere. Axford burst onto the scene in a mop up role after being promoted mid-season. With the struggles only increasing in the 'pen, Axford soon got his chance to pitch in meaningful games. That responsibility only increased after Trevor Hoffman lost his ability to close ball games. Axford recorded his first save of 2010 in Minnesota on May 23rd. He would go onto to close out 24 games, while blowing just three saves. In 58 big league innings, Axford struck out a ridiculous 76 batters, while walking 27. Those are impressive numbers for a pitcher who came out of nowhere. He had a 2.0 WAR in 2010 and looks to be a mainstay in the bullpen for years to come.

Surprise of the Year: Lorenzo Cain

In 2009, Lorenzo Cain had a tough season. After being diagnosed with a knee injury early in the season, Cain really never recovered. He played injured the entire season and his numbers suffered greatly. That year, Cain had an OBP under .300, while playing between A and AA. In 2010, Cain regained his top prospect form. While playing between AA and AAA, Cain was able to post an OBP of .402 in 331 at bats. After seeing the terrible play of Carlos Gomez and an injury, the Brewers were left with a void in centerfield. Cain grabbed the bull by the horns. In 144 at bats, Cain hit .306 for the Brewers. His walk rate took a slight dip, resulting in a lower OBP of .344. However, Cain was able to slug .417 in his big league at bats. He also played tremendous defense. In limited playing time, advanced fielding statistics pegged Cain at a 2.7 UZR. All that added up to a 1.1 WAR, despite playing just 20% of the season. Pretty impressive after Cain's 2009.

Chris Narveson is Dealing

2010-09-30T23:11:00.000-07:00

As the Milwaukee Brewers struggled their way through the middle of the summer, they started losing their followers. Let's face it, there's not a ton to get excited about a team just 'playing out the games.' However, one very big reason to get giddy is the close to Chris Narveson's season.

On Thursday, Narveson held the Mets to one run over 6.2 innings. It was just another impressive start for Narveson, something that has become normal over the past two months. He fanned nine Mets and walked just three. Even more encouraging was Narveson's ability to keep the infield busy. Of the 11 in-play outs, eight were on the ground. It was a great way to cap a good season for Narveson.

Entering August, Narveson was 8-7 with an uninspiring ERA of 5.68. While advanced statistics suggested he deserved a better fate, there's not too much to write home about with an ERA in the high fives. His main problem seemed to come from his fly ball tendencies. While his HR/FB ratio wasn't out of the ordinary, Narveson was only able to keep the ball on the ground 35% of the time. Needles to say, with hitters consistently elevating the ball, home runs were going to be surrendered.

Then August came.

Narveson immediately seemed like a new pitcher. It started at Wrigley Field on August 3rd and ended tonight at Citi Field. Here are Nerveson's numbers over his final 11 starts.

64.0 IP, 53 Hits, 26 Runs (25 ER), 4-2, 3.52 ERA, 57 K's, 22 BB's

Although Narveson was never blessed with a triple digit fastball, he has shown a pretty good ability to locate the ball. That has been even more apparent of late.
Narveson was tagged in two of those 11 starts. In both outings, his control was missing (seven walks to just one strikeout). Even with those poor outings, Narveson was able to post a 2.5:1 K:BB ratio in the final two months of 2010. Very encouraging stuff to see from the young southpaw.

So just exactly where does Narveson's value stand for the Brewers? Despite his success of late, I'd say everyone can pretty much agree Narveson isn't an ace, but more a very good back end of the rotation type. He can strikeout batters regularly and doesn't walk too many. Just how good he will come down to how well he can get ground balls. In a stadium like Miller Park, flyball pitchers don't last too long. In 2010, Narveson's groundball rate was just over 40%. While that's not terrible, it's not that good. For him to succeed that will need to come down.

Despite his high flying frequency, Narveson was still able to post a FIP of 4.21 this season. That's exactly what the Brewers are going to need out of him next season. He wont be able to file for free agency until 2015 and isn't arbitration eligible until 2012. His value to this organization is immense. It's not too often good young pitchers can be had for next to nothing. A thanks has to be given to the St. Louis Cardinals for parting ways too soon with him. It's just a great find by Doug Melvin. How about instead of worrying about developing our own pitching talent, we just take other teams? I guess that's easier said than done.

Farewell Dave Bush

2010-09-29T21:17:00.000-07:00

Despite meaning little to either organization, Wednesday's game between the Mets and Brewers held some meaning. After holding the Mets scoreless for six innings, Dave Bush was pulled in what will likely be his final start in a Brewers uniform.

This is a tough post to write for me considering Dave Bush is one of my favorite Brewers. I've always seen him as a reliable pitcher who, although not spectacular, was a good value to the organization. Could he throw in the upper 90's? No. Could he be considered an ace? No, but Bush always seemed to somehow contribute something to the team. His fastball topped out in the mid to upper 80's and he gave up his fare share of gopher balls, but at the end of the year, his numbers suggested just how underrated he was.

Bush was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays during the 2005 offseason as part of the trade that sent Lyle Overbay out of town. At the time, I considered Bush and Zach Jackson a relatively minor return for Overbay, but Bush came into Milwaukee firing strike after strike. His 2006 season was very impressive. Bush went 12-11 that year and posted a 4.41 ERA. Although those numbers might not blow you away, his advanced numbers suggested a much different outcome.

In 2006, Bush registered as a near four WAR player. His strikeout to walk ratio was a mere 4:1. Speaking of walks, Bush just didn't issue them. His 1.63 BB/9 ranked next to the top in the NL. His FIP was a much more respectable 3.98. Easy to say, the future looked bright for Bush.

Although Bush was useful in his next four seasons, he just wasn't the same pitcher. After his 3.8 WAR season in 2006, Bush combined for just 3.1 WAR from '07 to '10. His strikeouts and walks were still decent, although not as impressive. So, what lead to Bush's average seasons? Simply, Bush wasn't able to keep the ball on the ground.

In 2006, Bush induced grounders 46.6% of the time. He saw that number consistently drop over the next three seasons ('07: 43.4%, '08: 41.1%, '09: 34.4%). This season, Bush was able to up that total to a still disappointing 39.7% of the time. Combine those numbers with Bush's tendency to allow the bleacher bums to take home a souvenir. He was very consistent over that time frame by average a HR every 12% of the time a ball was hit in the air in just about every season. While that is just above average for a pitcher, Bush allowed many more flyballs than the average hurler. More flyballs led to many more home runs.

As Bush's command and ability to avoid bleachers left, so did they majority of his success. It all culminated this season when Bush was only able to produce a 0.1 WAR season. A season that will likely be his final in Milwaukee.

I really like Dave Bush, but he's just not that good of a pitcher anymore. After this season, Bush will be a free agent. I just don't see the Brewers spending free agent money on him. Sure he's a relatively decent (way too close to replacement level) option at the back end of a rotation, but the Brewers really have no need for that. After the emergence of Chris Capuano and Chris Narveson, Bush's days were numbered. He will be missed in Milwaukee, but if Bush makes another start in a Brewers uniform, Doug Melvin will have done something wrong.

I was there in Game 3 of the 2008 NLDS, when Bush was able to pitch the Brewers to their first playoff win in a quarter of a century. He was a big reason the Brewers even made the playoffs that season. Thanks for the memories Dave. Your contributions to this organization didn't go unnoticed.

The Resurgence of Randy Wolf

2010-09-22T23:12:00.000-07:00

After signing this offseason, Randy Wolf did little to earn his large paycheck throughout the first half of 2010.

In his first 21 starts in Milwaukee, Wolf was bad. Actually, Wolf was beyond bad. After those starts, Wolf was 7-9 with an ERA of 5.12. Even more alarming was Wolf's peripherals. His walks were up (63 in 128 IP) and strikeouts had drastically dropped below his career average (82 in 128 IP).

With those struggles, Wolf managed an incredible WAR of -1.1 in that span. Needless to say, the Brewers weren't receiving much of a return on their $29.75 million investment.

When the Brewers signed Wolf, I wasn't entirely blown away. He was a good pitcher who had shown the ability to possess good control, while striking batters out. He was surely an upgrade over the 2009 staff, but the cost wasn't cheap. Shelling out $30 million is always risky, but Wolf seemed like an alright gamble. But after his first half struggles, that contract began to look Suppan-esk. For his first half performance, I gave Wolf an F and deservedly so.

Then, Randy Wolf started pitching more like Randy Wolf.

Start after start Wolf started showing some of his old form. It started on July 26th against the Cincinnati Reds where Wolf went seven very strong innings, striking out five, while walking one. He surrendered just two runs in that game and the Brewers went onto beat the Reds 3-2.

After that, it was like Wolf was again ready to pitch. Between that start and Wednesday's win over those same Reds, it's been an entirely different Wolf on the mound.

In his past 11 starts, Wolf is 6-2 with a 2.57 ERA. What's been even more impressive to me has been his control throughout that stretch. He has walked just 22 batters in 73.2 innings and fanned 53. That also includes one terrible start where Wolf walked five batters without recording a strikeout, which heavily detracts from just how good he has been of late. In those 11 starts, Wolf has managed a 1.6 WAR. For the season,

Wolf's WAR for the season now stands at 0.5. Surely that's not what the Brewers were expecting when they signed him, but Wolf has managed to salvage what would have been one of the most disappointing years for a Brewers pitcher in recent memory.

Going forward, I have a lot more confidence in Randy Wolf. That's something I couldn't have said with a straight face just two months ago.

Brandon Kintzler Interview Rerun

2010-09-13T18:41:00.000-07:00

Brandon Kintzler was kind enough to talk to me this summer while playing for the Nashville Sounds. He dominated the minor leagues and has been called up for September. Here is a rerun of his interview from back in June.

As Brandon Kintzler delivered his 12th pitch of the at bat to Memphis Redbirds shortstop Tyler Greene Tuesday, he had to be frustrated. He's noticed quite a difference in his 4.1 innings since being promoted to AAA Nashville.

"They don't want to strikeout up here for some reason," Kintzler said.

It has been quite a difference from his time as closer in AA Huntsville where hitters could do little but swing and miss. In 22.1 innings there, Kintzler struck out 23, while walking just one batter. He converted every one of his 10 save opportunities there and has started to show up on the Brewers radar. I'm sure his 0.40 ERA in 22.1 AA innings doesn't hurt either.

However, the road to a possible big league promotion for Kintzler hasn't always been so smooth.

Kintzler was drafted in the 40th round of the 2004 amateur draft by the San Diego Padres. He went onto pitch in two seasons for the Padres minor league affiliates before being released because of health concerns.

"They said they were getting impatient with me and basically cut me loose," Kintzler said. "I tried rehabbing it for six months and ended up having to have surgery."

From there, Kintzler was open to just about anything that could keep his career going. That including a trip to the Northern League in a place Kintzler wasn't too familiar with.

"I didn't even know Winnipeg even existed, let alone where they were," Kintzler said. "They said it was kind of near North Dakota, so I said alright. They told me I needed a passport, so I hopped on a plane. I ended up getting rookie of the year and had a so so year the next. I saw a lot of guy weren't getting picked up there, so I asked for a trade."

Kintzler noticed the majority of players who were signed by teams were playing in the United States, so he requested a trade and found himself in St. Paul, MN.

"I knew the Saints were essentially the Yankees of Independent ball, so I asked to be traded there," Kintzler said. "It worked out well for me."

After the Independent League all-star game, Kintzler caught his break when the Brewers came knocking.

"They sent me straight to Double-A, which was kind of a shocker," Kintzler said. "I had never even pitched above Low-A, so I was pretty excited about that chance they gave me."

During his brief tenure under Brewers control, he has impressed. Kintzler finished the 2009 season with Huntsville, striking out 32, while only walking nine in 35.1 innings. His success only continued to impress while closing games this year, but he felt his only walk was questionable.

"That was one walk was a strike by the way, it shouldn't have been a walk," Kintzler said.

He's also combined that solid K:BB ratio with an ability to keep the ball on the ground. Last season, his GO/AO (ground outs/air outs) ratio was a very solid 1.4:1. This year, those numbers have only gotten better. In 26.2 innings between Huntsville and Nashville, Kintzler has upped that ratio to 1.67:1. That probably helped lead to opponents batting just .149 off him.

"I was kind of nibbling when I got to Double-A last year," Kintzler said. "My mentality is just to attack hitters. If I can keep the ball down, they are just going to hit groundballs anyway."

With his solid numbers so far this season, if Kintzler is able to stay healthy, he could be yet another option to look at from the Nashville Sounds bullpen. John Axford, Kameron Loe and Zach Braddock have all made positive appearances after their callups. It's quite a story for a pitcher who found his career all but over a couple of years ago.

Could Cliff Lee Land in Milwaukee?

2010-08-29T20:47:00.000-07:00

With nearly $50 million coming off the books in 2010, the Brewers have made it pretty apparent they plan on focusing on starting pitching. I know, what's new? Although they have been burned in the past, the Brewers have some options on the free agent market, including Cliff Lee.

In all honesty, the Brewers are not that far away from being a major force in 2011. Brewers owner Mark Attanasio has expressed hesitation to give big money to another pitcher. This has led many to believe the Brewers will ship first baseman Prince Fielder for a front line starter. My question is why?

I completely agree trading Fielder is in the best interest of the team, but not for a soon-to-be free agent starter. The maximum value for Prince would come in the form of a couple of top prospects; one of which being a starter. By doing this, the Brewers will have six full seasons of control over that player. By trading Fielder for a pitcher like Matt Garza (I heard some rumors of this), the Brewers would still be on the hook for a large contract and have limited control before Garza leaves for free agency.

Say the Brewers ship Fielder for a top pitching prospect. They know will also have Fielder's contract off the books, which could immediately be used to throw at Cliff Lee. This would give the Brewers both a young starter to build around and the bets left hander on the planet.

If there was any debate who the best lefty in the game was coming into this year, Lee has silenced it.

Lee, 31, has always been an incredible pitcher, but has been unreal this year. After missing a full month, Lee still ranks 6th in the American League in innings pitched with 179.2. How is that possible? Well, Lee has averaged nearly eight innings a start. Considering how overworked the Brewers bullpen has been in recent years, that's a huge addition.

It's one thing to throw innings, but it's another to dominate during those frames. That's exactly what Lee has done. This season Lee has struck out 156 batters. That's very good, but what makes it incredible is his control. He leads MLB with a gaudy 13:1 K:BB ratio, issuing only 12 walks. According to FanGraphs, Lee has racked up a WAR of 19.8 over the past 2.5 seasons. Like I said, he's the best southpaw baseball has seen in a while.

The real question is the price tag that comes along with Lee. Seeing as he is the best pitcher on the market, he won't come cheap. I'd venture to guess Lee wants something around five years somewhere in the range of $80 million. Even that might be a little light. I agree that's huge money, but Lee could really put the Brewers over the top. Ryan Braun and likely Rickie Weeks will be locked up over the next five seasons at reasonable prices. In Lee, the Brewers would then have a solid starter to put alongside Yovani Gallardo. A 1-2 of Lee and Gallardo could reek havoc for the next couple of seasons in the Brew city.

Brewers Release David Riske; Make Room for Gomez

2010-08-23T09:52:00.000-07:00

To clear room for Carlos Gomez, whose DL stint is over, the Brewers released David Riske Monday. The move was a longtime coming considering Riske's struggle to stay healthy and poor performance.

Riske signed a three-year deal worth $13 million in the 2007 offseason. The contract will go among the worst in franchise history. Worse yet, it was just another failed pitching signing by Brewers GM Doug Melvin.

In his three years in Milwaukee, Riske was constantly battling injuries. Riske had an elbow injury from the start of his contract. He ended up having to undergo Tommy John Surgery last June, missing almost of all 2009 and a large chunk of 2010. Here are Riske's season statistics as a Brewer.

2008: 42.1 IP, 5.31 ERA, 47 Hits, 25 BB, 27 K's, 5.47 FIP
2009: 1.0 IP, 18.00 ERA, 4 Hits, 0 BB, 0 K's, 3.10 FIP
2010: 23.1 IP, 5.01 ERA, 25 Hits, 8 BB, 16 K's, 4.12 FIP

Taking those numbers into account, over his tenure in Milwaukee, Riske managed to rack up a -0.6 WAR. Using fair market value, Riske's performance actually produced a negative performance based salary of $3 million. Not a very good return on the Brewers original $13 million investment. The contract might not be as bad as Jeff Suppan's, but few are and Riske's isn't that far off.

Another troubling decision today was the Brewers bringing Carlos Gomez back. With the return of Gomez, the Brewers now have too many outfielders, with too few spots for them to play.

With the additions of Lorenzo Cain and Chris Dickerson, Gomez immediately became the worst outfielder on the team. There is absolutely no justification for Gomez taking playing time from either player. He has options remaining, so why not put him in Nashville? I don't think he will ever amount to anything, but why not give him everyday playing time in Nashville. If there is something there, playing in Nashville can only help him. Taking playing time from Cain and Dickerson is the worst thing the Brewers can do for the remainder of the season.

Now that Riske is now done in Milwaukee, the Brewers have almost rid themselves of every useless player on their roster. I fear Gomez will be given too many chances in the future and I truly believe it is in the best interest of the club to release him. Time will tell the intentions of the Brewers, but tendering a contract for Gomez next season seems pretty dumb.

Gamel Time?

2010-08-17T09:57:00.000-07:00

If you ask Mat Gamel about his 2009 season, I would venture to say he was all that happy with it. After a mid-season callup, Gamel batted just .246 in 130 big league at bats. However, he was able to walk a bit and show some power in that same time, with a .340 OBP and .431 slugging percentage. Not bad numbers, but numbers Gamel would like to improve on.

He has responded in 2010. Gamel has been a very good hitter at AAA Nashville. In the Sounds 7-6 win Monday, Gamel went 3-4 with a double, walk and grand slam. After yesterday's performance, Gamel has now posted a .322/.397/.513/.911 line in 267 at bats in AAA. He has also accumulated 10 homers and 58 RBI in that same span.

So who is the real Mat Gamel and what can he bring to this franchise?

Throughout his minor league career, Gamel has shown just exactly what kind of baseball player he is. He struggles defensively. He strikes out and walks a lot. He shows decent, but not overwhelming power with his above average bat. To me, that sounds like a player with some pretty decent value.

Gamel's 2010 has much more reminiscent of his career line of .304/.377/.489/.866. He has been very consistent at every level with those numbers and should have little trouble producing good numbers at the big league level. Where he would play is another huge question.

With Prince Fielder all but gone in the future, first base does have an opening. Gamel's 6' frame isn't all that conducive to the position, but then again, neither did Fielder, who was two inches shorter. Playing Gamel at first base does make sense, as the Brewers could hide Gamel's biggest problem: his glove.

Coming up through the minors, Gamel has always played third base. It seemed to work perfectly coming into last season, as the Brewers had a glaring need there. However, Casey McGehee has shown he can play third and likely would get the nod over Gamel. This season, McGehee has a 2.4 WAR, despite costing the Brewers nearly six runs with his glove. I firmly believe Gamel can outproduce McGehee with the bat, but his glove makes McGehee look like the second coming of Mike Schmidt. I just don't see the Brewers playing Gamel long term at third base.

The other option I have heard is in right field. This really depends on what the Brewers are going to do with Corey Hart. Hart's UZR this season in right has been a very bad -11.5. I have heard some rumblings of Corey moving to first base and placing Gamel in right. This would make some sense considering Corey's large 6'6" frame. However, doing this would introduce two players to positions they have never played. I doubt Gamel could do much worse than Hart in right, so I am hoping this is the route the Brewers explore.

In the meantime, the Brewers hands are really tied. I expect them to trade Prince Fielder in the offseason, but until that happens, there is no place to play Gamel in Milwaukee. Thus, there is no sense in calling him up just to ride the bench (i.e. 2009). The best way to handle things for now is to get him some starts at either first base or right field. Something tells me Adam Stern and Joe Koshansky don't really have a chance to make a big impact in the future. Getting Gamel acquainted to those position should be priority one for this club.

Breaking Down the Edmonds Trade

2010-08-09T10:47:00.000-07:00

If there has been one thing Doug Melvin has excelled in during his time in Milwaukee, it's getting good value out of his bench. That continued this season with Jim Edmonds and also allowed Melvin to grab a nice return when the veteran was dealt today.

Jim Edmonds was sent to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for outfielder Chris Dickerson. Another example of how finding value in the offseason can translate into great value at the deadline.

Edmonds, 40, played tremendously for the Brewers this season. In 217 at bats, he has a .286/.350/.493/.843 line. One thing I criticized Edmonds for this offseason was his defense. Although Edmonds clearly doesn't possess the speed he once had, he still played a very good centerfield this season. His 7.0 UZR this season is his highest since he posted an 8.4 UZR for the 2005 Cardinals.

So what does a great bat and solid defense translate to? Despite not playing everyday and battling injuries, Edmonds was able to rack up a 2.5 WAR. Given the market average of $4 million per 1.0 WAR, this Brewers $800K investment is very successful. According to fangraphs.com, Edmonds worth this season is exactly $10 million. With Drew Stubbs struggling in centerfield, Edmonds is an excellent pickup for the stretch run in Cincy.

Dickerson, 28, is an absolutely brilliant pickup by Melvin and the Brewers. He has shown an ability to show patience at the dish and has shown decent power for a centerfielder. Combine that with very good defense and fans can understand how valuable Dickerson could be to the future of the Brewers. Speaking of the future, Dickerson will not eligible for free agency until after the 2014 season. He is cheap, under control and good, three things that are very nice in a player.

Like I said, Dickerson has always had a very good understanding of the strike zone. Throughout his minor league career, he has drawn a free pass in about 14% of his plate appearances. His 6'3", 230 lbs frame has also lead to some power. He has 35 extra base hits in 357 big league at bats. As usually is the case, that big body has also lead to some holes in his swing, leading to a high strikeout rate. In those same big league at bats, Dickerson has fanned 30% of the time. Although high strikeout rates can be a cause for concern, if he is able to balance them with walks, he should prove very valuable.

Another very nice attribute in Dickerson is his glove. In just shy of 850 innings in the outfield, Dickerson has a 10.4 UZR. Every scouting report I have read praises Dickerson's strength and accuracy with his arm. Those are two things that are tough to find in center. The Brewers are looking for a longterm solution in centerfield. I really like Lorenzo Cain, but having another player, like Dickerson, can only help.

Dickerson first broke into the majors in 2008 with the Reds. In limited playing time (102 AB), he was able to post a .413 OBP and an OPS over 1.000. His power regress a bit in 2009, when he posted a .743 OPS in 255 at bats. Despite the drop off in power, Dickerson was still very selective, walking 13% of the time en route to a .370 OBP.

Hampered by injuries this season, Dickerson is currently rehabbing in the minor leagues. He broke a bone in his hand back in April on a swing and only was able to log 44 at bats this season. In his current rehab stint, he is murdering the ball. In 43 minor league at bats, Dickerson has homered three times, walked nine and has an OBP of .528, with a 1.296 OPS. Granted that's a very small sample size, but I'd say he'll be ready to join the Brewers very soon.

This move really impacts three other Brewers. Trading Edmonds made a ton of sense, because it translated into immediate playing time for Lorenzo Cain. Considering the Brewers playoff chances are pretty much non-existent, playing Edmonds did nothing for the future of this club. Until Dickerson is able to join the team, Cain should start everyday in center.

Adding another centerfielder also means the Brewers are not impressed with Carlos Gomez... and why should they be? Gomez has been absolutely terrible this season and shows no signs of being a productive player in the foreseeable future. The J.J. Hardy trade was an absolute joke. It's time to admit that and move on. Not renewing Carlos' contract is a move that makes too much sense. Another Brewer who will likely not rejoin the team is Jody Gerut. With Dickerson and Cain sharing the majority of the playing time in centerfield, Gerut's days are likely numbered. As long as Joe Inglett remains on this club, giving the Brewers another outfield option, I don't see Doug Melvin using a roster spot on Gerut.

No one really wanted to see Jim Edmonds leave, but this move was an absolute must for the Brewers. After announcing he would likely retire after this season, keeping Edmonds would've only hurt the Brewers and the development of their young players. It is smart to not just save face and play for a couple of meaningless wins at the end of the season. With the farm system severely lack in outfield talent, landing Dickerson was an excellent acquisition for the Brewers. Celebrate Milwaukee.

The CF Debate (Or Lack There Of)

2010-08-07T10:27:00.000-07:00

If the Milwaukee Brewers are lacking one thing, it's a deep farm system. Prospects have not progressed well, or have been dealt and that has left Milwaukee scrambling to find help.

However, one prospect has made his way back from injury and into the plans of the Brewers organization: Lorenzo Cain.

When Doug Melvin traded for Carlos Gomez this offseason, he thought he was getting his centerfielder of the future. "Carlos brings to our club great speed, athleticism and energy at a position that we needed to fill," Melvin said. By those statements, one can assume Melvin expected Carlos Gomez to fill the centerfield void left after Mike Cameron departed to free agency. Problem for Melvin and the Brewers is that speed, athleticism and energy don't always lead to talent.

Is Carlos Gomez fast? Yes

Is Carlos Gomez athletic? Yes

Does he bring energy? Sure

Is he a good baseball player? No

Gomez has shown the exact same problems that plagued his in the Twin Cities. He doesn't walk. He doesn't hit for power. He strikes out way too much and, to put it lightly, he is lacking baseball knowledge. For further explanation, check this play out. Gomez leads the team in outs on the bases: a category you don't want to be atop.

The problem with Gomez is he just doesn't get on base. Entering today, Gomez is hitting .228/.286/.350/.636 in 75 games this season. With this season, Gomez' career OBP in the majors is a horrid .291. His plate discipline can only be defined as terrible. This season, Gomez has struck out four times per every walk he draws. Those are just numbers that don't belong in the major leagues.

Cain, 24, has a much better track record for success in his pro career than Gomez. Although not touted as a 'top prospect' like Gomez has always been billed, he has outperformed him at every level.

This season, Cain has spent time in both AAA Nashville and AA Hunstville. Combined between his two stops, Cain has posted a .317 batting average and a very promising .402 on base percentage. I know many fans like the speed Gomez has, but Cain also has shown his burners. Better yet, he knows when to use it.

I've never really been a huge fan of the stolen base, but when used effectively, it can be a nice weapon. With Cain, he has that weapon. This season, Cain has stolen 26 bases and only been caught three times for an 89% success rate. Cain also has nine triples on the season and 11 doubles.

One big question on Cain was his 2009 season when he hit just .218/.294/.330/.624. Cain tore his PCL early in the 2009 season and never really recovered. He was only able to log 206 at bats. Considering his past success and the small sample size, it pretty reasonable to throw out his 2009 numbers.

One big thing both players have in common is they still have options remaining. This means the Brewers could send Carlos Gomez to the minor leagues and not have to wait and see if he clears waivers. Why play Gomez over Cain when he gets back? Cain has a much higher ceiling and could have a positive impact on the future of this team. Sure Gomez was once considered an 'A-level' prospect, but just because he was labeled that by scouts does not make him a good player. If the Brewers are smart, the majority of the playing time this season should go to Lorenzo Cain. It's time to admit the Gomez trade was a mistake. Let's not make it worse by stunting the growth of a talented young player like Cain.

Not So Glovely

2010-08-03T09:12:00.000-07:00

Everyone knows the old sports saying: 'Defense wins championships."

Well, in baseball, that's not exactly true. If you can't hit the ball, you're not going to win much. Just ask the 2009 Seattle Mariners. They finished the season 85-77, but they were absolutely incredible in the field and on the mound. Their team UZR was an incredible 85.3. To put it simply, that means their defense saved them a run in just about every other game.

Those numbers probably help lead to their 3.87 ERA, good for sixth best in all of baseball. Keep in mind that was before Cliff Lee arrived in town. If you tack on those runs, their team ERA raises to 4.40, or 19th best. If you are looking for a reason why the Mariners didn't go onto the playoffs, examine their lackluster offense who managed to only post 3.95 runs a game.

Conversely, the Milwaukee Brewers can hit. They are currently eight in baseball with 506 runs scored, or 4.73 a game. The problem for the Crew has been inconsistent pitching and defense. Brewers arms have given up 519 earned runs this season, which equates to a team ERA of 4.93. That's already good enough for fifth worst in MLB, but factor in bad fielding and the Brewers have been a joke when not batting.

Only the Astros (56), Cubs (60) and Nationals (54) have surrendered more unearned runs than the Brewers (53) this season. That means the Brewers average an unearned run in every other game. If you follow advanced fielding statistics, it's been just as ugly for the Brewers. Here are the UZR (runs saved or lost) for every player who has logged over 300 innings at a position.

Ryan Braun -10.2
Corey Hart -8.1
Casey McGehee -7.4
Prince Fielder -5.1
Rickie Weeks -2.5
Carlos Gomez 0.2
Alcides Escobar 0.2
Jim Edmonds 5.4

Combining all of those numbers, Brewers starters have cost the team 27.5 runs this season. That makes them the fifth worst defense team in baseball this season. With a team that struggles to pitch already, giving extra outs and extra runs is a recipe for disaster.

Contrary to belief, the Brewers were a pretty decent defensive team last season. The managed a team UZR of 3.5, which ranked them 12th in baseball. The two defensive minded Brewers who departed were J.J. Hardy and Mike Cameron. Cameron saved an incredible 11.4 runs last season, while Hardy saved 6.8 himself. Craig Counsell also received much more playing time and was able to save 5.9 runs.

Clearly pitching has been a big problem for the Brewers this season, but the defense is not helping matters.

The Corey Hart Extension

2010-08-02T08:59:00.000-07:00

I was surprised, like many of you, when I woke up and read the news.

The Milwaukee Brewers signed Corey Hart to a three year deal that will keep him in Milwaukee through 2013. The pact is reportedly worth $26.25 million.

Hart, 28, is having a career season for the Brewers. After going yard Sunday, Hart now sits with 23 home runs. He is hitting .288/.346/.565/.911 in 347 at bats. Pretty incredible numbers for a player many wanted cut earlier this season. It hasn't been all perfect for Hart though. He has struggled in right field this season posting a -12.8 UZR/150, easily his worst season defensively in his career. Despite those very poor fielding numbers, Hart has still registered as a 2.1 WAR player this season.

My favorite part of this contract is the length. Seeing as Hart was still under team control for one more season, the deal really only extends him for two additional seasons. Based on projections, Hart was likely going to make around $7-9 million dollars in his final season of arbitration, so the deal doesn't seem to unreasonable. Many who dislike this deal cite a possibility of Hart regressing back to his struggling form. Even if that happens, the length of this contract really won't hurt the Brewers future plans too bad.

Taking the final year of arbitration into account, Hart's deal breaks down to two years, somewhere in the range of $17-19 million. Not cheap, but not too bad considering just how well Hart has hit this season. With the going market rate of $4 million per 1.0 WAR, the deal seems fair. I don't think there are many people out there who don't think Hart can realistically accumulate a 7.0 WAR over the next three seasons.

What I take from this deal is what it means to the future of the organization. The two other players scheduled to hit free agency with Hart were Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks. After the extension, the writing is now on the wall for both players.

Hart will be scheduled to make around $10 million in 2013, the final year of the deal. Combine that with the other players signed through that date (Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo), the Brewers now have $ 27 million already committed that season. If the Brewers were really serious about signing Prince Fielder long term, Hart would not have been offered an extension. If Fielder were to sign after this deal, the Brewers would have nearly 60% of their payroll committed to four players that season. In a small market like Milwaukee, that just can't happen.

However, with Weeks, the Brewers can now shift their focus to him. I have to say, I'm disappointed Hart's extension was given precedence over Weeks. I've said all along I think Weeks could be an absolute steal.

Looking around the league, second basemen are severely underpaid. The only second basemen making over $10 million per season are Chase Utley and Brian Roberts. Roberts has been injured this season, but has still racked up 13.0 WAR combined over the last three seasons. In Utley, the Phillies have been just spoiled. Over the last three years, Utley has a combined WAR of over 22.0. Those numbers are unheard of. At fair market value, he should fetch $28-30 million a season, or $18 million more than his current contract.

The best part about extending Weeks is the Brewers wouldn't even need to sniff that pay range. I think a five year deal worth $35-40 million would get the job done. Considering Weeks is swinging the bat better than ever and is already a 4+ WAR player this season, that's very reasonable.

In short, the Corey Hart signing was a decent deal for the Brewers. Hopefully Hart is able to keep up his current torrid bat and start playing better defense. If he does both, the deal could be incredible for the Brewers, If not, they are only on the hook until 2013. It's the type of low risk, high reward deal fans like to see. If they are able to fetch some decent players for Fielder this offseason, the future doesn't seem so bad. It's tough to imagine how quickly these negotiations progressed. In the span of 48 hours, Corey Hart went from possibly being dealt to signed long term. Like they say, baseball is a game of inches.

Missing: Ryan Braun

2010-07-28T17:40:00.000-07:00

Despite starting the mid-summer classic in Anaheim, Ryan Braun has not been an all-star this season. After Wednesday's 1-4 performance, Braun has seen his OPS drop to .791. Although a .791 OPS isn't terrible, it's pretty incredible just how far it has fallen.

On May 10th, Braun's OPS was an incredible 1.048. That included a .445 OBP and .603 slugging percentage. Then, Braun just stopped hitting. Here are his numbers since that day.

May 10-31: 72 AB's, .236/.267/.403/.660, 2 HR, 7 RBI
June: 110 AB's, .264/.299/.409/.708, 3 HR, 16 RBI
July: 98 AB's, .204/.233/.388/.621, 5 HR, 15 RBI

Since May 10th: 280 AB's, .236/.268/.401/.669, 10 HR, 38 RBI

Throughout his career, it would have been tough to find months where Braun struggled to hit .300. This year, it is tough to find months where Braun's on-base percentage surpasses that mark. If you are looking for a reason why nearly every one of Prince Fielder's home runs have been solo shots, look no further than Braun.

With his current struggles, Braun's value to the team has completely vanished. On May 10th, he already was a 1.4 WAR player. He current is a 1.0 WAR talent, or -0.4 WAR below what he was 280 at bats ago.

Okay, I understand Ryan Braun is a really good player, but his recent trends are very worrisome. Since 2007, Braun's isolated power has declined every season.

2007- .310
2008- .268
2009- .231
2010- .187

One encouraging sign for Braun has been his ability to keep his strike outs down. Over the last four years, Braun has seen his K rate fall more than 7%. Here are Braun's strikeout percentages each of the last four years.

2007- 24.8%
2008- 21.1%
2009- 19.1%
2010- 17.7%

Even more encouraging has been the development of his plate discipline. Even though he has regressed in 2010, Braun's walk rate has improved tremendously since his rookie season.

2007- 5.9%
2008- 6.3%
2009- 8.1%
2010- 7.1%

So why is Braun struggling so much considering he's making more contact? Well, the contact he has made has not been very solid, as evidence by his declining ISO numbers. Also, Braun has seen the amount of fly balls he hits greatly reduce over the past four years.

2007- 44.9%
2008- 44.1%
2009- 34.1%
2010- 35.9%

There's really no rhyme or reason as to Braun's struggles. The fans can just hope Braun returns to his rookie form. I wonder if substituting contact for power is what is holding Braun back. If you ask me, I'm willing to stomach 150+ strikeouts if it means Braun's power being rediscovered. Sure strikeouts can be frustrating, but so can a player not playing up to his full potential.

Corey Hart Trade Series: Tampa Bay Rays

2010-07-24T13:15:00.000-07:00

For the final segment of the Corey Hart trade series, I will be looking at a potential deal to the Tampa Bay Rays. I have thought for some time the Rays are the leading candidate to acquire Hart, as they have a lot of young pitching; something Doug Melvin is seeking.

Currently, the Rays have Ben Zobrist alternating between second base and left field. Zobrist is a really, really good player, but could be that much valuable if he was playing at second base (a position not usually frequented by offensive threats). If the Rays acquired Hart, that would move Zobrist to second base full time and Sean Rodriguez to the bench. It would also give the Rays the option of DHing Hart, seeing as Will Aybar isn't the best option for that slot. With all the options Corey Hart can provide for the Rays, it makes too much sense for them to acquire.

As to what the Brewers could pry away from the Rays, that's up in the air. As stated above, Doug Melvin is insistent on acquiring young pitching, so let's start there.

Wade Davis

With the names of David Price, James Shields and Jeff Niemann, Davis was mentioned as next in line for the young stud staff in Tampa. However, this season, Davis has been anything but a stud. In 102 innings, he has struck out just 65 batters and allowed 43 free passes. To be blatantly honest, his 4.41 ERA has been very lucky. His 5.48 FIP and -0.1 WAR tell a much gloomier tale for Davis.

That's not say Davis doesn't have ability though. Since being drafted in the 3rd round of the 2004 amateur draft, Davis was very good in the minors. In 138 minor league starts, Davis had a 3.28 ERA. Over 767.1 innings, he fanned 745 batters, while walking 283. Those are pretty good numbers.

However Davis is already pitching in the major leagues, which could be looked at as a positive and negative for the Brewers. Sure trading for Davis would immediately give the Brewers a major league ready starter, but he service clock has already started ticking. Granted it is still well under one full season, but any used time can be considered as something the Brewers don't want to see. In short, I'm not saying Davis is a bad pitcher, but he is not the type of pitcher I would like as a return for Hart. There are just too many question marks that go along with him.

Jeremy Hellickson

You may remember Hellickson from starting the Futures Game last week in LA. Hellickson, 23, is one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball. With a very strong rotation already, the Rays may be willing to part with Hellickson.

This season, Hellickson is 12-3 with a 2.51 ERA at AAA Durham. He has struck out 119 in 114.2 innings with only 35 walks. Every scouting report I have seen says Hellickson is a sure fire ace and should be the main target in a trade for the Brewers.Of course this all hinges on the Rays and if they want to part ways with Hellickson. He is yet to throw an inning in the major leagues, giving him six full seasons before he can hit the free agent waters. Combined that with the ability he possess and prying him away from the Rays could be tough.

Matthew Moore

I have started to hear Moore's name surface more in recent trade talks with the Brewers. Moore, 21, is currently pitching at Single-A Charlotte. After being drafted in the 8th round of the 2007 amateur draft, Moore has spent parts of two seasons with the Rays. In that time, he has pitched 301.2 innings and averaged 12.7 K/9. Control has been a little bit of an issue with 158 walks, but he still maintains a really strong K:BB ratio.

The one main drawback for the Brewers with Moore is how far he is away from the major leagues. Despite having incredible stuff, I would imagine the Brewers would take their time maturing Moore. The one thing that scares me is the Brewers are in a win now mindset and might pass on Moore just because he couldn't contribute right away. I think he would be able to hit the majors by 2012. With Fielder's contract running out after next year, the Brewers might not want to wait until then for another arm in the rotation.

Matt Joyce

Joyce, 25, is a name I haven't heard yet, but could be a very nice piece to look at for the Brewers. He is currently spot starting in right field for the Rays, but receiving much playing time. This season, he has posted a .220/.387/.441/.827 line in just 75 at bats. His high walk rate is no fluke though. Throughout the minor leagues and during his brief tenure in the bigs, Joyce has always been a very patient hitter. At every level he has maintained a near 10% walk percentage, while still showing power.

The one main problem in shipping Hart is the Brewers absence of a corner outfielder to fill the void. The only upper level outfield prospect the Brewers have is Lorenzo Cain and he is a centerfielder. By adding Joyce, the Brewers would have that option and still have it under plenty of control. Joyce is still yet to rack up a full year of service time and would come very cheap for the next five seasons. Another reason the Rays would be willing to part with Joyce is the abundance of outfield prospects they enjoy. Waiting in the wings are both Fernando Perez and Desmond Jennings. Granted Perez' stock has fallen off late, but he does still hold some value.

Wrapup

If Hart come back healthy in the next couple of days, I really expect a deal to get done with Tampa. If the Hellickson offer is on the table, by all means take it. However, if Hellickson is not offered, it gets a bit more complicated. In a deal for either Moore or Davis, I would require Matt Joyce also be included. Sure the Brewers would be selling very high on Corey Hart, but he is a high value player based on this season. In deadline deals, recent stats tend to outweigh past success. There are few outfielder available who can match Hart's success this season, so acquiring top-level talent shouldn't be a problem.

Corey Hart Trade Series: ATL Braves/SD Padres

2010-07-22T19:23:00.001-07:00

Continuing the Corey Hart trade series, let's take a look at what a potential trade to the NL East leading Atlanta Braves would mean for both teams.

Right field in Atlanta is currently occupied by Jason Heyward, so something tells me Corey Hart will not be taking over there. However, left field is a little more wide open. Sharing the duties in left are Eric Hinske and Matt Diaz. Hinske has had a nice season with the bat this season, posting a .273/.340/.492/.832 in 183 at bats. However, it's pretty safe to say the Braves would prefer to use Hinske off the bench. He has a -10.4 UZR/150 in left this season.

In Diaz, the Braves have a much better defensive option, but he has also struggled with the bat. In 117 at bats, Diaz is batting .256/.293/.453/.746 for the Braves. Despite posting a UZR/150 of over 30 in LF, he has still only has a 0.5 WAR this season. However, Diaz has 13 hits in his last 34 at bats, with four homers. He looks to be back to his normal form at the plate. I'd be very surprised if the Brewers and Braves are able to strike a deal, seeing as the Braves probably won't overpay for Hart and the Brewers are overly looking to ship him.

So, instead of breaking down a trade suitor unlikely to happen, I'll look at the San Diego Padres.

If there is one team in need of a bat in the major leagues, it is the San Diego Padres. If there is one team in the major leagues in need of a right fielder, it is the San Diego Padres. That has led to a lot of attention on Corey Hart.

The Padres are currently averaging 4.35 runs per game, good for 12th in the National League. Starting in right field is Will Veneble. In 217 at bats, Veneble is hitting .235/.321/.410/.731, with above average defense (4.0 UZR/150). That's good enough for 1.4 WAR this season. Not bad, but also not as good as Corey Hart.

In left field, it's a similar story for the Friars. They are currently starting Scott Hariston, who has a pretty similar line, with much worse defense. He is currently hitting .240/.319/.397/.717 in 229 at bats, with a -7.0 UZR/150. Still not as good as Hart, but remember where both these players are playing. In San Diego, the ball doesn't go anywhere, leading to power outages from just about everyone. Going off topic, I wonder what Adrian Gonzalez could do in another ballpark. Anyway, what could the Brewers fetch in a trade with the Pads?

The biggest problem in completing a trade with the Padres is their lack of upper level young pitching. Doug Melvin has let it known he wants young arms at the deadline if anything is to be completed. Sure they have Mat Latos, but he is going nowhere. Other than Latos, the only other top 10 prospect that is a pitcher in their organization is Adys Portillo, but he is A-ball and not pitching well there.

One piece that could be of interest to Melvin, however is Jaff Decker. He is the third ranked prospect in the Padres organization and could help fill the outfield void after Hart leaves. Decker, 20, was drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft. In three minor league seasons, Decker has posted a .435 OBP and a OPS just under .900. Those are really impressive numbers. Even so, I don't know if Melvin will be willing to part with Hart for a player who is a couple of seasons away from the majors.

If the Padres were willing to include Clayton Richard in a trade with the Brewers, they might be a little more willing to part with Hart. However, the Padres, as stated above, aren't blessed with upper level pitching talent, so parting with Richard creates another hole. Something I'd be willing to bet the Padres are unwilling to do. That's why, if I had to guess, Hart has little chance to end up in SoCal with the Pads. I'm not saying it can't happen, but the odds aren't as likely as a move elsewhere.

Stay tuned as I'll have an article soon on Hart and a possible destination to Tampa Bay.

Corey Hart Trade Series: San Francisco Giants

2010-07-22T13:25:00.000-07:00

Let's face it, 2010 has not been a good season for the Milwaukee Brewers. Currently, they sit 43-53, 11.5 games back in the NL Central. According to CoolStandings.com, the Brewers have a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs this season. Like I said, it hasn't been pretty.

That's not to say there hasn't been bright spots. Rickie Weeks is tearing the cover off the ball. Young relievers have come to the major leagues and shined. Although the Brewers best story lives in right field.

Coming over a very disappointing 2009, many wanted Corey Hart out of Milwaukee. Rumors of his release followed him throughout Spring Training and the beginning of the season, culminating in sitting the bench on opening day in favor of Jim Edmonds.

Hart ended up rebounding to the tune of his second all-star appearance in three seasons. What makes this even better for the Brewers is what it could mean for the future.

Hart currently has a .908 OPS and is second in the national league in home runs. He is free agent eligible after the 2011 season. He is likely to receive a raise in arbitration after his strong season.

If Corey Hart and Prince Fielder are part of the 2011 Brewers, they will have a better chance at the playoffs, but at what price? Is having a shot in 2011 worth selling off the future of the franchise? I agree the Brewers have a much better chance of signing Hart long term than Prince Fielder, but that doesn't mean he's going to come cheap. Signing Hart long term would likely cost the Brewers $10 million per season in a multi-year deal. I'm not saying Hart is not worth that, but why give him that much money when he could be dealt for a nice package? With the Brewers chances for success in the near future looking rather slim, there is no time like the present to trade Hart.

With divisional races so tight, a big piece at the trade deadline could propel a team to the playoffs. Lucky for the Brewers, the teams in those races are in need of a right fielder and would likely part with good talent to acquire one. Corey Hart has been linked to numerous teams, but three have stood out. Here is the start of the Corey Hart trade series and what each deal could mean for the Brewers.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have a big need in right field. They're currently trotting out either Nate Schierholtz, or Aubrey Huff, who also starts at first base. Starting Huff in right field leads to poor defense (-35.8 UZR/150 in RF) and starting Ishikawa at first base (a normal power spot) leads to fewer runs. Granted Ishikawa has hit the ball well this season, but he has never really been that good of a hitter and his 77 at bats indicate a small sample size. If Corey Hart came to the bay, it would a go a long way to securing a possible playoff spot for the Giants.

That's not to say Corey Hart is going to be easy to acquire. After already racking up 2.5 WAR this season, the Brewers really don't want to part ways with Hart. In return for his services, many have said the Brewers are asking for either Madison Bumgarner, or Jonathan Sanchez in return. Let's take a look at each player and what acquiring them would do.

Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner, 20, is already pitching in the major leagues. In five starts this season, Bumgarner is 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA, including eight scoreless at Miller Park on July 6th. He has struck out 24 batters in 33.2 innings, while walking seven. Pretty good numbers for someone who is younger than me (that's scary).

In the minors, he was just as good. Over three seasons, Bumgarner went 34-6 with an ERA of 2.00 in 355.2 innings. He fanned 315 batters and walked only 77. He was recognized as the 9th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2009 and 14th best this season.

The most exciting part about acquiring Bumgarner to me is how cheap he will come. Bumgarner's major league service time currently sits at 0.027 years, meaning he will not hit free agency for another six seasons. With how cheaply he will come and the ceiling he has, I am jumping up and down with his name being mentioned as a possible return.

Jonathan Sanchez

Sanchez, 27, is also a pretty good pitcher with an incredible arm. He tops out in the high 90's, with good movement on his pitches. His career is highlighted by the no-hitter he tossed last July against the San Diego Padres.

This season, Sanchez is 7-6 with a 3.42 ERA in 19 starts. He is striking out nearly a batter an inning (110.2 IP, 109 K's) and walking one every two (110.2 IP, 54 BB's). This season's ERA is the best in his career, likely due to some luck. His BABIP this season is .275, which is by far the lowest in his career.

One thing that worries me with Sanchez is the high amount of fly balls he tends to surrender. His GB:FB ratio this season is .81. While he might be able to get away with that in the cavernous AT&T Park, Miller Park is not so forgiving. Another less attractive thing on Sanchez is he has been in the majors for a while. He has accumulated just over three years of service time thus far and would hit the open market in 2013. Sure that's down the road, but he is also due for a large arbitration raise soon.

The strangest thing about this deal is mentioning Sanchez and Bumgarner is the same sentence. If Doug Melvin is saying we will take either player, does he really think the Giants are going to part with Bumgarner? He is much cheaper and could very well be a better pitcher than Sanchez next season. That just seems odd to me. If Bumgarner is on the table, take it. If Sanchez is the only one being offered, I think the Brewers are best inclined to explore their options. I'm not saying Sanchez is a bad return, but the great thing about the trade deadline is the amount of options teams are given for players in demand.

Stay tuned, I'll have more on Corey Hart and his possible destinations coming very soon.

Catching Lightning Without Spending

2010-07-19T15:47:00.000-07:00

Remember the month of April? Gregg Zaun was in the middle of his poor start to the season, while Jason Kendall was hitting single after single in Kansas City.

While the hatred of Zaun grew incredibly fast, so did the appreciation for Kendall's departed service. In short, Zaun started the year 0-21, during the same stretch as Kendall's 14 game hitting streak. Many questioned Doug Melvin for not extending Kendall and all the 'veteran leadership' he provided. Never mind his below average production and high asking price... Doug Melvin was wrong.

And then reality set in.

Kendall's OPS is back where it belongs: in the mid-.650's. He has played below average defense as well. All Kendall's 314 at bats have led to is a 0.6 WAR for a player in a two year, $8 million contract. Not very good return on the Royals investment for a team looking to rebuild with a 36 year old catcher.

The fans in Milwaukee have seen a much different kind of story behind the plate this season: production without paying much for it. Below are the current lines for Milwaukee catching this season.

Gregg Zaun: 102 AB's, .265/.350/.392/.743, 2 HR's, 14 RBI
Jonathan Lucroy: 93 AB's, .280/.316/.376/.692, 2 HR's, 5 RBI
George Kottaras: 143 AB's, .203/.326/.427/.752, 7 HR's, 21 RBI
Brewers Catchers: 338 AB's, .243/.330/.404/.734, 11 HR's, 40 RBI

All told, Brewers catching ranks 14th in OPS and OBP and wOBA. Not bad considering their best option (Zaun) went down early in the season. Brewers backstops have been productive. Zaun, Lucroy and Kottaras have all racked up 0.6 WAR, despite limited playing time, equaling the production of Kendall in nearly 1/3 the at bats.

Brewers backstops have also thrown out 20 of 87 would be base stealers this year, which is slightly above the league average.

With Jonathan Lucroy seemingly ready to take control of catching for seasons to come, fans have to be excited over what might be. Better yet, the Brewers are not on the hook for a $4.5 salary for a below average, aging catcher next season. I know it hasn't been said much this season, but kudos to Doug Melvin and the front office on this one.

First Half Breakdown (Outfielders)

2010-07-15T14:52:00.001-07:00

Note: (.AVG/.OBP/.SLG/.OPS)

Corey Hart- A

2.3 WAR

.288/.349/.569/.918, 306 AB's, 21 HR's, 65 RBI

.247/.340/.416/.756. That was Corey Hart's line after an 0-5 game on May 14th. The Philadelphia Phillies were in town and the Brewers lost the game 9-5. This game stands out to me after hearing Corey Hart booed loudly in every one of those five at bats. Corey Hart had become public enemy number one in Milwaukee and rumors of a possible Jermaine Dye sighting were murmured throughout the talk shows and papers. And then, Corey Hart started launching balls. In his first 89 at bats up to that point, Hart homered just three times. After that, he has gone deep 18 times in 217 at bats, or once every 12 times up. He has also stopped his alergic reaction to extra bases. Of his 88 hits this season, 42 have went for extra bases. He has resurrected a swing Brewers fans became accustomed to before the 2008 All-Star break and is now one of the most sought after trade chips on the market. After almost being released by the Brewers, his name is swirling in San Francisco, with Madison Bumgarner or Jonathan Sanchez as possible returns. His defense hasn't been good this year (-8.9 UZR/150), but we'll let that slide after where Corey was just months ago.

Ryan Braun- C+

1.2 WAR

.292/.348/.479/.827, 13 HR's, 54 RBI

Fitting that Ryan Braun would come up right after Corey Hart considering just how different their seasons have gone. Ryan Braun started the season on fire. On May 9th, Braun was hitting .365 with an OBP of .445 and an OPS well over 1.000. Things change really quickly though. In both June and July, Braun's OBP was under .300. Braun's power also deserted him, posting slugging percentages on .409 and .415 in those months. Brewers fans should have also noticed below average defense in left as Braun is posting his second straight poor defense season (-15.8 UZR/150). Braun started to show signs of turning things around right before the All-Star break, so hopefully that can coincide to Braun-like production for the rest of the season. Braun is just too good of a hitter for this recent slump to continue.

Carlos Gomez- F

0.2 WAR

.229/.282/.356/.638, 205 AB's, 5 HR's, 20 RBI

I don't know how else to put this: Carlos Gomez is a bad baseball player. When the Brewers traded J.J. Hardy for Gomez, I was upset. I became furious after learning the Brewers were offered Ryan Doumit for Hardy and passed on the trade. I was irate after Carlos Gomez began the season batting in the two hole. There are just so many things that are frustrating with Gomez. He doesn't walk. He swings at way too many pitches out of the zone (36.6% of the time he chases). To make matters worse, Gomez' best attribute has disappeared. He's always been a phenominal defender in the big leagues, but is posted a -UZR this season (-0.8). I understand Gomez is a young player, but there is nothing to suggest he might actually turn into a productive major leaguer. He has a lot of time before he can test the free agent waters and I fear the Brewers might be willing to stick with him until then. Everyday Gomez remains a Brewer, I get more and more anxious to see what Lorenzo Cain can do in Milwaukee.

Jim Edmonds- B

1.4 WAR

.273/.337/.448/.785, 172 AB's, 4 HR's, 12 RBI

When Jim Edmonds signed with the Brewers, I wanted him nowhere near centerfield. His advanced fielding statistics suggested even playing him in a corner outfield position was a risk. I figured Edmonds would be a nice bench option, but underestimated just how bad Carlos Gomez would play. Despite being injured and not playing everyday, Edmonds has still managed a 1.4 WAR. While playing in centerfield, Edmonds has given the Brewers a good bat in a position where few exist. Even better, Edmonds has played solid defense this season, ranking highest amoung UZR's among Brewers outfielders. Not bad for a one year deal worth little money.

Jody Gerut- D-

0.0 WAR

.197/.230/.366/.586, 74 AB's, 2 HR's, 8 RBI

Gerut didn't get much playing time when he was healthy, but has been injured for an extended period of time. I still feel Gerut could be a productive CF with consistent playing time, but has really struggled this season. However, he did hit for the cycle in one of his starts. Although Chad Moeller and Carlos Gomez have hit for the cycle in their careers, so take that with a grain of salt. When he returns, I look for him to rebound.

Adam Stern- F

-0.2 WAR

.000/.000/.000/.000, 8 AB's, 0 HR, 1 RBI

I felt I'd throw in Stern for some humor. Nothing suggests he is of major league caliber talent and should never sniff Milwaukee again. His promotion immediately reminded me of Corey Patterson's last year.

First Half Breakdown (Infielders)

2010-07-15T12:09:00.000-07:00

Note: (.AVG/.OBP/.SLG/.OPS)

Jonathan Lucroy- B

0.4 WAR

.267/.300/.372/.672, 86 AB's, 2 HR's, 5 RBI

Lucroy has been a pleasant surprise for the Brewers. He struggled in AAA and was forced into action when Gregg Zaun went down with a season ending injury. Lucroy was thrust into becoming the main catcher and has played well. He has thrown out seven of 21 potential base stealers and has been alright with the bat. I'm really hoping his great plate discipline returns. After leading the majority of his minor league teams in walks, Lucroy has been issued a free pass just 4.4% of the time this season.

George Kottaras- B+

0.7 WAR

.207/.331/.444/.775, 135 AB's, 7 HR's, 28 RBI

So how does one bat just .207 and still post a .775 OPS? With power and patience. Of George's 28 first half hits, 17 have went for extra bases. He also ranks 6th on the team in walks, despite logging far fewer at bats than everyone else. For a reference, Kottaras has walked four more times (27) than Alcides Escobar (23) in 148 fewer at bats. Pretty good numbers for a backup catcher. The only thing holding him back is his inability to throw out baserunners (17%), although that has gotten better of late.

Prince Fielder- B-

2.6 WAR

.265/.401/.494/.895, 324 AB's, 20 HR's, 39 RBI

After a characteristically slow power start, Fielder has been driving the ball of late. He has 13 long balls in his last 137 at bats. Despite the slow start, Fielder never lost his patience at the plate. He has walked 15.4% of the time this year and posted an impressive .401 on base percentage, despite hitting .265. His .494 slugging percentage is still well below his career average, but that will rise by the end of the year. His defense has slipped (according to UZR), but Fielder still remains an elite first baseman. My guess is as good as yours, but I'm thinking Prince remains a Brewer until this offseason, although I'm not saying I agree with that. There is no way the Brewers can/should meet any of Fielder's contract requests.

Rickie Weeks- A

2.5 WAR

.269/.370/.449/.819, 361 AB's, 15 HR's, 53 RBI

Weeks has established himself as one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball this season. His ability to get on base and hit for power as a second baseman are a huge asset to the Brewers. A lot of people will tell you Weeks belongs in the two-hole, but I ask why? Sure he hits for power and strikeout a lot, but who on this team is a better option to bat first? As long as Rickie is reaching base 37% of the time, there's no place I would rather see him. The combination of Weeks, Hart, Braun and Fielder has to be one of the best top four in baseball right now. Look no further than that to find this club's offensive success.

Alcides Escobar- D-

0.3 WAR

.244/.301/.323/.624, 283 AB's, 2 HR's, 24 RBI

I've never been really high on Alcides. Throughout the minor leagues, his numbers never blew me away. He never really walked much and obviously lacked power, but he is young and cheap, so he does hold value. But 2010 has been just terrible for him. The struggles at the plate and in the field have been one of the main reasons this club has been mediocre. My frustration has only grown with Escobar while watching hit weak ground ball after weak ground ball. Part of the reason for Escobar's struggles are what he swings at. In 2010, Escobar has swung at 30.5% of pitches out of the strike zone. Making matters worse, he is connecting on 78.1% of those swings. Subsequently, Escobar continues to chase pitches, while failing to make solid contact, leading to outs. His defense has also been bad (-2.0 UZR/150). His 14 errors are tied for second most in the majors.

Casey McGehee- B-

1.3 WAR

.274/.342/.455/.797, 325 AB's, 13 HR's, 53 RBI

After a red hot start to the season, McGehee really fell off. He has just four home runs in his last 177 at bats, after hitting nine in his first 148. Even so, McGehee has been an alright hitter. I'm just worried his recent struggles at the plate could be McGehee regressing back to his pre-Brewer form. Couple that in with a -14.6 UZR/150 at 3rd base and red flags really start to rise. One nice thing to see from McGehee has been his patience. He is walking a career high 9.4% of the time this season.

Craig Counsell- D+

.238/.306/.308/.614, 130 AB's, 1 HR, 13 RBI

-0.1 WAR

April 29th, 2010. Craig Counsell doubled off Wade LeBlanc in a 9-0 Brewers loss. Why do I bring that up? Well, that was the last time Craig Counsell actually had an extra base hit. Could this finally be the end for Craig Counsell? He has really struggled at the plate this season, but what worries me more is his glove. One of Counsell's main attribute has always been his defense, but even that has fallen off. His UZR/150's by position are as follows: SS:-0.9, 2B: 7.4, 3B:-25.2. Granted his time at third has been limited and those aren't the worst numbers, but not what the Brewers need from Counsell. He was incredible last season and has been a useful player throughout his career, but the end seems near for Counsell.

Joe Inglett- A

1.0 WAR

.328/.416/.507/.923, 67 AB's, 0 HR, 2 RBI

So just how does a player tally a 1.0 WAR in just 67 at bats? Well it's pretty tough, but by player like Inglett has this season. Granted his .415 BABIP is sure to help, but Inglett has been a force off the Brewers bench. Nine of his 22 hits this season have gone for extra bases, including three pinch hit triples. He's always had pretty good plate discipline, but Inglett's eye has been incredible this season. He is swinging at just 18% of balls out of the strike zone (league average- 28.6%). That has lead to his 11.4% walk percentage. He last played SS in 2008 for the Blue Jays. It has me wondering if he might be able to give it a try again. What do the Brewers really have to lose there? Also, Inglett has accumulated just over two years of service time, meaning he should be a Brewer for the foreseeable future. Pretty good snag by Doug Melvin.

CHECK BACK SOON. I'm currently working on the outfielders wrapup and should have it posted with an hour or two.

First Half Breakdown (Relief Pitching)

2010-07-12T09:24:00.000-07:00

After looking at starting pitching, where better to go than the bullpen?

After a rough start to the year, the bullpen has pitched pretty well of late. Even with the recent success, the Brewers bullpen has accumulated a 5.25 ERA this season, which is good for 29th baseball. Here is a look at each pitcher and their first half grade.

Carlos Villanueva- B

0.4 WAR

4.26 ERA, 44.1 IP, 55 K's, 19 BB's, 39 hits, 21 runs (21 earned)

Villanueva has been very good in 2010. His 11.17 K/9 is second on the club. The way he has been able to limit contact has been a very good sign. Where Villanueva has gotten into trouble in when contact is actualy made. He has given up an incredibly high 28.1 line drive percentage. Even with the high amount of liners he has fallen victim to, Villanueva's season is going much better than his stats would suggest. His FIP is currently 3.65, which is 3rd on the team.

Todd Coffey- C+

0.3 WAR

4.41 ERA, 34.2 IP, 26 K's, 12 BB's, 36 hits, 21 runs (17 earned)

One of the main problems I've had with Ken Macha is his constant overuse of some bullpen pitchers. Last year, there was no one abused more than Coffey. Last seasons usage may be to blame for Coffey's slow start. He was walking more batters and giving up more line drive and flyballs. That has subsided of late. In his last five outings, Coffey hasn't surrendered a walk and struck out eight batters in six innings.

Trevor Hoffman- F

-0.9 WAR

8.33 ERA, 27 IP, 17 K's, 13 BB's, 34 hits, 25 runs (25 earned)

What a difference a year makes. Hoffman has been absolutely terrible in 2010. His K/9 were 8.0 in 2009; 5.67 this year, His BB/9 were 2.33; now 4.33. Hoffman's ability to get groundballs has also vanished. His GB:FB ratio this year is .39, easily the worst in his career. He is also allowing HR's on nearly 1/6 of his flyballs. He's been better of late, but still not that good. I wonder if he will actually reach the 600 save plateau.

John Axford- A

0.7 WAR

3.12 ERA, 26 IP, 32 K's, 11 BB's, 22 hits, 9 runs (9 earned)

With Hoffman's struggles have come Axford's chance and he has grabbed it. Since taking over Hoffman's closers role, Axford has been incredible. He is striking out 11.07 batters per nine innings. His groundball ratio is exactly 2:1. Axford started the trend of Nashville pitchers coming to Milwaukee and they haven't disappointed. With plenty of service time remaining, Axford should be a mainstay for a long time in Milwaukee.

Kameron Loe- B+

0.4 WAR

1.59 ERA, 22.2 IP, 18 K's, 8 BB's, 12 hits, 7 runs (4 earned)

Loe has really come out of nowhere. Throughout his career, there was little to suggest Loe could provide anything for a major league team. After getting his callup, Loe has been very good. I still expect him to regress a bit, but if he continues to keep the ball on the ground and limit walks, he should be alright.

Claudio Vargas- D

-0.1 WAR

7.32 ERA, 19.2 IP, 18 K's, 10 BB's, 28 hits, 16 runs (16 earned)

Vargas was eating a roster spot when he pitched for the Brewers. He wasn't that good and he was very frustrating to watch. It's nice to not see him in Milwaukee anymore.

Zach Braddock- A-

0.6 WAR

4.08 ERA, 17.2 IP, 22 K's, 6 BB's, 20 hits, 8 runs (8 earned)

Zach Braddock should be a very important arm in the Brewers bullpen for years to come. He has an incredible arm and shows very good life on his pitches. His command is also very good. He has shown the ability to keep his free passes down throughout the minor leagues and his first pro season. In his last nine outings, he has not surrendered a run. He also leads the team in K/9 with 11.21.

LaTroy Hawkins- D+

0.1 WAR

9.26 ERA, 11.2IP, 15 K's, 6 BB's, 14 hits, 12 runs (12 earned)

The Brewers haven't seen much of a return on their investment thus far. Hawkins has been injured for the majority of 2010, but was very unfortunate when healthy. His opponent BABIP was .421, despite having a LD% of just over 12%. That's unheard of. His current FIP is 3.46. That might be the biggest difference between ERA and FIP in baseball. If he is able to keep his velocity up when he returns, he should be a good option out of the bullpen. That's always a big 'if' though.

David Riske- C

0.0 WAR

2.31 ERA, 11.2 IP, 7 K's, 3 BB's, 7 hits, 3 runs (3 earned)

Despite the Journal Sentinel's reports, David Riske is not 'dealing.' His increasing flyball numbers and career low HR/FB% are examples of how Riske has been okay, but not great. Also, his current BABIP is .188. If I was Doug Melvin, I would try and trade him near the deadline, to at least shed the remaining $2 million on his contract. Riske is just not that good a pitcher. He is a prime example of what paying a hefty price on a bullpen arm can do to a team.

Bullpen Grade- C

That might seem a little high with their current 5.25 ERA, but this bullpen's peripherals would suggest better numbers. Their current FIP sits at 4.00. They are currently 7th in K/9 and 13th in BB/9. Granted those aren't the best numbers, but they aren't that bad either. Add in they cut the majority of the dead weight holding them back earlier this season, the second half should be pretty good.

First Half Breakdown (Starting Pitching)

2010-07-11T14:41:00.000-07:00

Over the next couple of days, I will break down the Milwaukee Brewers 2010 first half. Through their first 89 games, the Brewers are 40-49 (3rd place in the NL Central). They are 8.5 games behind the first place Cincinnati Reds and 10 games back in the NL Wild Card race.

I will first look at the starting pitchers and how they have fared thus far. Next to each pitcher is their first half grade.

Yovani Gallardo- A

2.9 WAR

8-4, 2.58 ERA, 111.2 IP, 122 K's, 48 BB's, 93 hits, 41 runs (32 earned)

What more can you say about Yovani? He's been really strong all season long and has turned it on the later it got. He currently ranks 8th in the National League in ERA, 7th in strikeouts and 9th in opponent batting average. He's been even better of late while his walks have started to decrease and strikeouts have maintained. If he keeps that up, there's no reason to think Yovani couldn't make a run at a Cy Young in the near future.

Randy Wolf- F

-0.5 WAR

6-8, 4.56 ERA, 116.1 IP, 74 K's, 58 BB's, 117 hits, 66 runs (59 earned)

As encouraging as Yovani has been, Wolf has been equally disappointing. His walks are through the roof. His strikeouts have fallen. He leads of all baseball in home runs surrendered with 21. That's not to say all hope is lost with Wolf. He has pitched better of late. In three July starts, he has a 2.79 ERA and has shown much better command. It should be an interesting finish to the season for Wolf. Hopefully he is able to build on his recent success.

Dave Bush- C-

0.4 WAR

4-6, 4.14 ERA, 95.2 IP, 52 K's, 40 BB's, 103 hits, 51 runs (44 earned)

You will not meet a bigger fan of Dave Bush than me, but he just hasn't been that good this year. His walks are up and his strikeouts have fallen to troubling levels. Like Wolf, Bush struggled mightily at the start of the season and has rebounded of late. One of Bush's biggest assets in his career has been his control. Pounding the strike zone has always been Bush's scouting report. The Brewers could also decide to move Bush in the near future. He has been mentioned in numerous rumors so far.

Manny Parra- C+

0.5 WAR

3-6, 4.65 ERA, 69.2 IP, 71 K's, 33 BB's, 86 hits, 41 runs (36 earned)

Parra has been the victim of some bad luck thus far. He currently has a BABIP against him this season of .380. Although Parra has had high BABIP's in the future, that number is unheard of. He is striking out more than a batter an inning and walking only four per nine innings. Combine that with a very good GB:FB ratio and Parra's FIP (fielder independent ERA) of 4.24 is much more where his ERA should be. With Doug Davis coming back, I'm very worried the Brewers are considering sending Parra back to the bullpen. Developing Parra should be one of the main goals this season, not stunting his growth.

Chris Narveson- C-

0.4 WAR

7-6, 6.02 ERA, 86.2 IP, 71 K's, 35 BB's, 101 hits, 60 runs (58 earned)

Speaking of bad luck, Narveson also has had his struggles this season. His opponent BABIP is .338, which although isn't as bad as Parra's, is still pretty unlucky. Narveson's biggest problems have come with the gopher ball. On average, one of every eight flyballs against Narveson has left the ballpark. Narveson is giving up flyballs in nearly 40% of at bats against him, so HR's have been a problem. He has surrendered 1.35 HR/9, which ranks among the worst in the league. Even so, his ERA should be much closer to his current FIP of 4.71.

Doug Davis- F

0.0 WAR

1-4, 7.51 ERA, 38.1 IP, 34 K's, 21 BB's, 55 hits, 36 runs (32 earned)

Davis was signed this offseason to give the Brewers more depth to their rotation, but has been more a drain than anything. He has been injured for the majority of the first half and horrendous when healthy. It should really come as no surprise to fans what the Brewers have gotten out of him. He is pitching relatively consistent with his career numbers. He has always walked a lot of batters and has never struggled to get strikeouts. One of the reason I didn't mind the Davis signing was I thought they might be able to get something for his at the trade deadline, but with his injury and struggles, that may be tough. The worst thing that can happen right now is pitching Davis over a younger starter for the sake of saving face.

Jeff Suppan - F

Nothing more really needs to be said about Suppan.

Brewers Starting Pitching Combined- C

3.7 WAR

The combined WAR ranks near the bottom of MLB. Nevertheless, on paper they should be better. I'm really hoping the Brewers part ways with Doug Davis at the deadline and see what they have going forward. I'm expecting big finishes out of Narveson and Parra. Combined that with better command of late from Wolf and watching this staff down the stretch could be a little easier to stomach.

Stay tuned, I'll soon post the remaining grades for the relievers, infielders and outfielders.

Wait... This Game Means Something?

2010-07-06T00:02:00.000-07:00

I think the majority of you remember the 2002 MLB All-Star game played at Miller Park. I can remember laughing at the look on Bud Selig's face when he realized the game could end in a tie and the backlash that would coincide.

Anyway, Benito Santiago ended up striking out to end the tenth and, with his hand upwards towards the sky, Bud Selig told the umpire to stop the game. The game ended tied 7-7.

Of course, media and fans alike blew the situation out of proportion. The bullpens were depleted and it was an exhibition game. What else could they have done?

And then, the unthinkable happened. Bud Selig decided that ties could be no more. From now on, the mid-summer classic would determine home field advantage in the World Series. Not the best team in baseball, but the best league full of all-stars.

To date, the only team this has actually been screwed out of home field advantage is the 2004 St. Louis Cardinals, who were swept by the Boston Red Sox that season. In the future, one can only imagine how many times this will happen.

Believe it or not, this is now what this post is about. No matter how irrational Selig's ruling on the all-star game was, the managers who fill out the roster have been even more. This year's NL roster was filled out by Omar Infante, who Charlie Manuel labeled as the perfect 'utility' player. Nevermind Infante's .717 OPS, or his walk rate of 5.1%. Those are just the kind of players this league needs, right Charlie? It's not like the rosters have been expanded to 34 players. I'm sure there are just going to be too many tough roster decisions and not enough position players at the end of the game.

One look to the outfield tells a similar story. Selected from the Houston Astros is centerfielder Michael Bourn. That's not to take anything away from Bourn, who is not playing awful this season, but there are players who have simply been better than him. Case and point: Andres Torres of the Giants. In full time duty this season, Torres has accumulated a WAR of 3.2, which leads all major league centerfielders. He has posted an OPS of .845 (Bourn .677) and OBP of .382 (Bourn .331). Combine that with an incredible UZR/150 of 23.6 in CF and there is absolutely no reason he shouldn't be in LA next week.

Obviously, the injustice of Joey Votto has been well documented, so I won't get into that. Long story short, he's another victim of an incorrect system. Below are some listed examples of other players who also fell victim this season. The player who actually got the nod is also listed.

National League
(Value in WAR)

Joey Votto (3.6)... Ryan Howard (1.2)
Miguel Olivo (3.0)... Yadier Molina (0.6)
Luke Gregerson (1.4)... Matt Capps (0.6)
Josh Willingham (3.1)... Jason Heyward (2.0)
Andres Torres (3.2)... Michael Bourn (1.7)
Ryan Zimmerman (3.2)... Omar Infante (0.5)

American League

Francisco Liriano (4.2)... Fausto Carmona (1.5)
Kevin Youkilis (3.2)... David Ortiz (1.6)
Jered Weaver (3.2)... Trevor Cahill (1.2)
Felix Hernandez (2.9)... David Price (2.1)
Alex Rios (3.1)... Jose Bautista (2.1)

I know, I know. Some of these players are the only representatives from their teams and that's the rules. My point exactly. If you are going to make this game mean something, put the best players in the game. Also, the managers need to stop selecting the rosters. I'm not saying Omar Infante hasn't been a good backup for the Braves this season, but he is just that, a backup for the Braves. There is no reason he should make the game over other, better players. Make the game an exhibition and have fun with it. Every franchise could still have their hometown player represented. This is just not the way to handle things. Snubs like Joey Votto, Francisco Liriano, Andres Torres, ect, only look worse when home field advantage in the World Series is on the line. If the game is going to be for that, stop letting managers butcher the rosters year after year.

The Loe Down on Kameron

2010-07-02T13:30:00.000-07:00

June 1st, 2010- Milwaukee Brewers purchase contract of RHP Kameron Loe from AAA Nashville

That was the headline I received on that day. I was less than enthused about Loe. I remembered hearing about his very large pet snake while he was pitching for the Rangers, but outside of that, there was little to be excited about as a Brewers fan.

He had started 10 games for AAA Nashville. His line was nothing to write home about. In 62.2 innings, he struck out just 39 batters and walked 19. Not bad, but not great at the same time. The one thing Loe was able to do was keep the ball on the ground, something many Brewers pitchers can struggle with. His career GB:FB ratio was just over two. Very good numbers, but his K:BB was still worrysome.

The Brewers got Loe after he pitched in Japan last season for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. In 27 innings there, he walked 12 and struck out just 18 en route to a 6.33 ERA. Keeping the ball on the ground can only do so much. Pitchers still need to somewhat limit the amount of balls put in play and not walk batters.

For these reasons, I'll admit, I didn't think much of Loe when he was called up.

Then, Loe started showing much more than his periferals would've suggested. Here are his numbers since his promotion.

14 Games
18.1 Innings
0.49 ERA
8 Hits
2 Runs (1 Earned)
15 Strikeouts
6 Walks

That already adds up to a 0.5 WAR. Pretty impressive for a pitcher the Brewers were expecting very little out of. His FIP currently stands at a very impressive 2.48, so his numbers would suggest some luck is involved in his start.

So what can we expect from Kameron going forward?

Loe has a current BAA of .134. His BABIP is .179. I think just about everyone can agree those numbers cannot continue. I don't care if you are Cliff Lee, that is unsustainable. His line drive percentage is at a relatively high 22.2%, which also coincides with the very good fortunes he has had thus far. Loe's career BABIP is .311, which is where I would expect him to go from here.

Even when Loe comes back down to earth a bit, it doesn't mean he can't be a productive pitcher out of the bullpen. If he is able to keep up his solid K:BB ratio and keep the ball on the ground, he could be okay. He is getting batters to swing at balls out of the zone 37.8% of the time. That is a career high for Loe and much better than the current league average of 28.5%. That could be the main reason for his increase in strikeouts and decrease in walks. Right now, Loe's GB:FB ratio for this year is better than 2:1. That can be a very solid weapon for Ken Macha to use to induce important groundballs in last game situations.

Regression for Loe is going to happen. No one can keep up the incredible amount of fortunate bounches he has gotten this year. If he is able to keep missing bats at a solid rate and induce a large number of groundballs, he could be a very nice find for the Brewers. One thing is for sure, I didn't see this coming.

The Usage of Chris Capuano

2010-06-29T12:10:00.000-07:00

Fans who tuned in long enough to yesterday's frustrating 9-5 loss at the hands of the Houston Astros saw an uncommon thing of late: Chris Capuano.

Capuano pitched a scoreless ninth inning, only allowing one base runner (single). It was his first appearance in 16 days, when he pitched one inning against the Texas Rangers.

So what exactly are the Brewers doing with Capuano?

I thought it was a bit ridiculous giving him one start before relegating him to the bullpen. In that start, he gave up three runs in 3.2 innings. To be fair, there were some rather questionable plays behind Cappy, including a botched double play ball Rickie Weeks. He walked just one batter and struck out four. All in all, a pretty encouraging start from Cappy after making a pretty incredible comeback.

After immediately being sent back to the bullpen, he pitched nine days later on June 12th. His next appearance came last night.

This completely ridiculous use of Capuano has made me worried. Doug Davis is going to be brought back to the majors when he is healthy. Considering just about every other pitcher has been used much more frequently than Capuano, he might be the one sent down. If I'm not mistaken, Capuano has less than five years of service time in the majors and, barring a clause in his contract, would have options remaining.

I just can't understand how the Brewers are not able to find a use for Cappy. Zach Braddock has been very good out of the 'pen thus far and looks very good against left handers, but Capuano could also help in that role.

In the minors this season, Capuano retired 24 of the 29 lefties he faced. He didn't walk any of those lefties and fanned seven. That coincides with his career trends that has seen lefties bat just .235 against him and posted an OPS under .700. Long story short, Cappy can get lefties out.

I understand it is kind of tough to get Capuano a start at the moment. When Davis returns, the Brewers will have seven viable options to start games. Maybe a trade is something worth exploring. If Davis is able to piece a couple of decent starts together, he might garner some interest in the trade market. Starters can be very sought after this time of year and Davis might fetch a prospect. Even better, he could clear another spot for either Capuano or Manny Parra to take.

Even if Capuano isn't starting games, he still needs to see more action than what he has thus far. He could bring some things to the table that could prove beneficial. Although he has been good, Zach Braddock doesn't need to pitch every night. There's no sense in wearing his arm down the same way Mitch Stetter was abused last year.

What To Do With Weeks?

2010-06-28T10:23:00.000-07:00

Since June 5th, Rickie Weeks has been a force atop the Brewers lineup. Here are his numbers.

.325 Batting Average (25/77)
.453 On Base Percentage (12 Walks, 6 HBP)
.597 Slugging Percentage (46 Total Bases; 6 2B, 5 HR)
1.050 OPS

This is a very nice stretch in what has been a great season thus far.

Weeks' struggles to make contact have been well documented. He has struck out 84 times this season (6th most in MLB). As of Monday, Weeks is striking out 27.5% of the time. He has always been a high strike out candidate, but that is the second highest rate in his career. Weeks career average for strikeouts is 26.5%, so believe it or not, he is pretty much in line with what is common for him.

What makes Weeks so valuable despite the strikeouts is his ability to hit for power and still show very good patience.

To combat the high strikeout rate, Weeks has walked 10.4% of the time this season. He stands right on top of the plate, which has led to quite a few HBP. Weeks has been beaned a major league high 13 times this season, including six times in June alone. Combine that with high nice walk total, Weeks has reached base 50 times via those two ways on base.

Rickie plays second base, which is usually not a place where teams expect offense. Here is where Weeks ranks among ML second basemen.

On Base Percentage- .370 (5th)
Slugging Percentage- .458 (10th)
On Base Plus Slugging- .828 (8th)
Runs- 50 (6th)
Home Runs- 13 (3rd)
wOBA- .366 (7th)

With these numbers, Weeks has already racked up a WAR of 2.0 this season. According to Fangraphs, that is equivalent to an $8 million value. This got me thinking.

With all the talk of what Prince Fielder is going to fetch in free agency, why hasn't Rickie Weeks' name been mentioned as a long term signing? Weeks has solidified himself as a very important player for the organization.

Currently, Weeks has accumulated just over four years of MLB service time. That means Weeks will hit the free agent waters after the 2011 season. With a year and a half remaining before Weeks could leave, the Brewers need to start thinking extension. I really believe Weeks would be open to this and could be had at a pretty good bargain. Here are his comments from an interview earlier this season.

"If it happens, it happens. If it doesn't, it doesn't," Weeks said. "You don't want to leave too much on the table, but then there's security."

Financial security is always a big draw for some players, but could be even more important for Weeks. He has had injury problems in the past and has already underwent two surgeries. It could be a risk for the Brewers, but from what I've seen from Weeks so far, it's a risk worth taking. They could lock up a very good player at a position where good players are tough to come by.

Randy Wolf: What's Going On?

2010-06-25T12:52:00.001-07:00

Arguably, Randy Wolf has been one of the worst starters on the Brewers staff thus far. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up. These are very discouraging signs for the Brewers who signed Wolf to a three year pact worth $29.75 million this offseason.

I stumbled upon an article from FanGraphs.com on just how bad Wolf has been so far. Below is the actual article from David Golebiewski. He titled it 'Randy Wolf's Woeful Pitching.' Enjoy.

Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers’ starting rotation consisted of Yovani Gallardo and “staff.” The club boasted a potent offensive attack, ranking third in the NL in wOBA and second in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs, but Milwaukee’s starting staff placed just 13th in xFIP. While there were many Bernie Brewer slides, Milwaukee finished the year with a disappointing 80-82 record due largely to the ineffectiveness of the non-Gallardo starters.

Over the winter, the Brewers sought to end those rotation woes by snagging a pair of lefties, Doug Davis and Randy Wolf, in free agency. Yet, even after yesterday’s 3-0 victory over the Mariners, the narrative for 2010 is much the same as it was last year. Milwaukee’s offense is second in the Senior Circuit in wOBA and paces the league in Park-Adjusted Batting Runs. But the starters are the bane of Bernie Brewer’s existence yet again — 12th in the NL in xFIP. At 34-41, the team sits 7.5 games back of the division-leading Reds and nine games behind the Mets for the Wild Card.

Davis tossed just 33.1 innings with Milwaukee this season (7.56 ERA, 4.49 xFIP) before being placed on the DL with pericarditis. Wolf, inked to a three-year, $29.75 million deal, has just been howling bad.

Anyone expecting the 33-year-old to repeat his 2009 season with the Dodgers was bound to be disappointed. Wolf posted a 3.23 ERA in 214.1 frames with L.A. last year, but his peripherals suggested he was the same low-four’s ERA pitcher on display in 2007 and 2008 — with 6.72 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9, his xFIP was 4.17. Heading into 2010, both CHONE and ZiPS expected that Wolf’s .257 BABIP would climb toward the .300 range, and his FIP would settle in around 4.20. CHONE and ZiPS valued the former Phillie, Dodger, Astro and Padres as a 2.2-2.3 WAR pitcher. The FANS were more optimistic, expecting Wolf to match his 2009 output with 3.0 WAR.

Instead of stabilizing Milwaukee’s rotation, Wolf has been the unit’s biggest offender. In his first 97 innings, he has -0.8 WAR, which ranks dead last among NL starters. He is striking out 5.29 batters per nine innings, the lowest mark of his career, while issuing 4.64 BB/9 — his highest rate of free passes handed out since 2006, when he was fresh off Tommy John surgery. Wolf’s 5.39 xFIP is worst among qualified NL starters.

From 2007-2009, Wolf induced swinging strikes 8.1 percent of the time (8.6% MLB average those years). This season, batters are coming up empty just 5.6 percent (8.3% MLB average). His contact rate, 82.4% from ’07 to ’09, is 86.5% (the MLB average has remained around 81%). Wolf’s not getting hitters to chase off the plate as much, either. His outside swing percentage was 24.3 percent from 2007-2009, with the MLB average ranging from 25% to 25.4%. In 2010, his O-Swing is down to 21.1% (28.4% MLB average).

On a per-pitch basis, Wolf’s fastball has gotten hammered. The upper-80′s offering was worth +1.01 runs per 100 pitches from 2007-2009. This year, the heater has a -1.41 runs/100 mark. Looking at Wolf’s Pitch F/X data from 2009 and 2010, he’s getting fewer whiffs, strikes, and swings. Last year, Wolf deceived batters to swing through his fastball 6.4 percent. This year, it’s 5.8 percent (the MLB average is around six). His strike percentage was 69.1 in ’09 and 65.8 in 2010 (62-64% MLB average). Batters swung at the fastball 49.2 percent last season, and 43 percent this season (45-46% MLB average).

Wolf likely won’t be this bad all season long, but the Brewers clearly haven’t received the return they were expecting. There’s also the question of whether he’ll come close to justifying a $9.5 million salary in both 2011 and 2012. Manny Parra is intriguing, Chris Narveson hasn’t embarrassed himself, and Davis could resume his average innings-munching, but Milwaukee needs Wolf to turn it around. In terms of clearly above-average starters, Gallardo remains the lone wolf.

Slumping Prince?

2010-06-20T21:05:00.001-07:00

There's no question Prince Fielder hasn't played up to expectations this season. He's dropped off in just about every major hitting category and the patience of fans is running thin.

Believe it or not, Prince Fielder has not been bad this season. He might not lead the league in home runs. He might not lead the league in batting average. However, he has still been a very good hitter thus far.

I think the main reason so much disappointment has been placed on Fielder this season is his 'conventional' stat line. When fans go to the ballpark, they see this line for Fielder.

.260 BA
13 Home Runs
27 RBI's

Those don't look like very good numbers for a cleanup hitter. One look behind the basics and it's easy to see Fielder has still been a very productive hitter.

A player really can't control his RBI count. There are just too many factors to consider. If the players in front of you don't get on base, it's tough to drive them in (see: Gomez, Carlos and his 25 starts batting second). If the players behind you don't hit, you're an easy target to pitch around. It's tough to criticize Fielder for something that he can't entirely control.

Although Fielder isn't leading the lead in homers, he still has left the park 13 times. Is it his fault that 11 of those home runs are solo shots? No. Despite popular belief, a player can't choose when to hit home runs. Anyone suggesting Fielder's inability to be 'clutch' this season, take one look at 2009.

Last season, Fielder hit 46 home runs. Almost half of those (22) were solo blasts. Fielder still had no problem driving in runs last season. He drove in 141 runs in 2009.

Fans really need to stop looking at RBI's as a huge indicator of personal success. Troy Glaus has been really good this year. He currently leads the NL in runs batted in. Here is a look at Glaus' 'conventional stats.'

.280 BA
14 HR
55 RBI

Does hitting 20 points higher with one more home runs really mean a difference of 28 RBI's between him and Fielder? Glaus hits cleanup for the Braves. Hitting in front of Glaus are Martin Prado (.380 OBP), Jason Heyward (.383 OBP) and Chipper Jones (.391 OBP). If you put those number in front of Fielder, something tell me he would have more than 27 RBI's.

It's not the fault of fans for thinking this way. I grew up with the same ways to evaluate a player. There are just better ways to look at how a player is performing now.

Ok, now that I'm done ranting, let's look at Fielder this year.

Despite hitting just .260, Fielder is tied for second in the majors in walks with 48. That has lead to a .397 on base percentage, which is pretty incredible considering the relatively low batting average. Sure that is down from a .412 OBP last season, but it's pretty tough to penalize Fielder for reaching base at a near .400 clip.

The biggest concern for Fielder is from his .453 slugging percentage. Of Fielder's 66 hits this season, 23 have gone for extra bases (34.8%). That's pretty good for a major league player, but more is expected out of Prince. In 2009, Fielder had 84 extra base hits (177 hits total), meaning 47.4% of his hits went for extras.

So why is this happening?

One main reason looks like an increase in groundballs. Last season, Fielder's groundball:flyball ratio was 0.94. This season, Fielder's ratio has climbed to 1.06.

When Fielder is elevating the ball, it isn't with the same amount of force. Of Fielder's 78 fly balls he has hit, 13 have left the park. That means Fielder hits a home run 16.7% of the time when he elevates the ball this year. That's down from 23.1% from last year (46 HRs, 199 Fly balls) and his career rate of 20.1%. One reason for that could be an increase in infield popups. Fielder has seen his infield flyball percentage raise to 11.5%; up from 5.5% last season.

Sure Fielder isn't repeating his incredible 2009 thus far, but how can that be expected. I've never seen such criticism of a player who is still producing at a very high level. I fully expect Fielder to increase his power numbers and finish strong this season. Seeing as a trade is likely in Fielder's future, it's important for the Brewers he picks up his production.

Carlos Gomez: Stuck in His Ways

2010-06-17T12:33:00.000-07:00

How many times have you heard someone describe a player as "having all the talent in the world, but doesn't know how to use it?"

If you've been to a baseball stadium in your life, you've probably heard it. I swear, every team has a player the fans determine has superstar potential, but doesn't know what he's doing out there. The Brewers version of this is Carlos Gomez.

From my experience, these "gifted" players all have one thing in common: speed. If there is one thing the majority of baseball fans are mesmerized by, it's a player who can run. That ability can give the illusion these players can overcome so many other things that make them below average talents.

When the Milwaukee Brewers traded for Gomez this offseason, I was skeptical to say the least. What could they have seen in Gomez that made them pass on a trade that would have landed Ryan Doumit in Milwaukee? Gomez always struggled to get on base and really showed no signs of improvement.

Despite his past problems of plate discipline, Ken Macha inserted Gomez atop the Brewers lineup to start the year. After numerous examples of his inability to get on base, Macha has now said Gomez will bat no higher than sixth for the foreseeable future.

So far this season, here are Gomez' numbers.

.242 Batting Average (37-153)
.284 On Base Percentage (8 Walks)
.386 Slugging Percentage (59 Total Bases)
.670 OPS

Less than inspiring numbers. Going beyond the basics, Gomez has continued to demonstrate the same problems that plagued him in Minnesota. His O-Swing% (% of balls he swings at that are not strikes) this season sits at 35.5%. That is 5.8% higher than last season and 0.4% higher than his career average.

As you would expect, swinging at more balls has lead to weak line drive percentages. This season, Gomez' LD% sits at 16.5%. That is down from 19.2% from last year and 17.6% for his career. Granted those are not great career percentages, but lowering them isn't helping matters.

One thing many have pointed out is Gomez' inability to bunt. This was one thing that surprised me when Gomez came over to the Brewers. Manager Ken Macha said right away one of Gomez' focuses would be bunting for hits. Why? What has Gomez shown to think this is a good idea? In 2009, he got a hit 22.7% of the time he laid one down. This season, he has actually upped that to 33.3% of the time, but let's take a look at what that actually means. If Gomez can reach base on one of every three bunts, he still is only getting on base at a .333 clip. Sure that is better than his current .284 OBP, but he also isn't slugging the ball in those attempts. At best, he reaches first base and maybe moves a runner up one base. To justify bunting, a batter must reach base at least 40% of the time.

One thing Gomez was highly touted for was his defense, and rightly so. From 2007-2009, Gomez posted UZR/150's of 22.0, 17.3 and 10.9. Those are very good numbers. It might come as a surprise that Gomez has actually been a below average defender thus far in Milwaukee. In the outfield this season, Gomez has posted a -4.6 UZR/150. That is in a pretty small sample size, but there's no question Gomez has misplayed several balls this season. Cameron Maybin's inside the park HR comes to mind for me.

I really don't know what the plan is for the Brewers here. The organization really don't have a top minor league prospect in CF. The closest would probably be Lorenzo Cain, but although he has played well in AA this season, is still aways away.

In my mind, Gomez really can't develop into much of a major league player. Sure he might be talented in some areas of the game (speed and defense), but has too much to overcome. Maybe when fans are talking of how talented players could be, they should look at that players ability to not swing at every pitch. Getting on base is important, especially for faster players who could do some damage on the bases. Problem for Gomez and the Brewers is he doesn't possess that ability.

Interview Series: Brandon Kintzler

2010-06-16T17:06:00.001-07:00

As Brandon Kintzler delivered his 12th pitch of the at bat to Memphis Redbirds shortstop Tyler Greene Tuesday, he had to be frustrated. He's noticed quite a difference in his 4.1 innings since being promoted to AAA Nashville.

"They don't want to strikeout up here for some reason," Kintzler said.

It has been quite a difference from his time as closer in AA Huntsville where hitters could do little but swing and miss. In 22.1 innings there, Kintzler struck out 23, while walking just one batter. He converted every one of his 10 save opportunities there and has started to show up on the Brewers radar. I'm sure his 0.40 ERA in 22.1 AA innings doesn't hurt either.

However, the road to a possible big league promotion for Kintzler hasn't always been so smooth.

Kintzler was drafted in the 40th round of the 2004 amateur draft by the San Diego Padres. He went onto pitch in two seasons for the Padres minor league affiliates before being released because of health concerns.

"They said they were getting impatient with me and basically cut me loose," Kintzler said. "I tried rehabbing it for six months and ended up having to have surgery."

From there, Kintzler was open to just about anything that could keep his career going. That including a trip to the Northern League in a place Kintzler wasn't too familiar with.

"I didn't even know Winnipeg even existed, let alone where they were," Kintzler said. "They said it was kind of near North Dakota, so I said alright. They told me I needed a passport, so I hopped on a plane. I ended up getting rookie of the year and had a so so year the next. I saw a lot of guy weren't getting picked up there, so I asked for a trade."

Kintzler noticed the majority of players who were signed by teams were playing in the United States, so he requested a trade and found himself in St. Paul, MN.

"I knew the Saints were essentially the Yankees of Independent ball, so I asked to be traded there," Kintzler said. "It worked out well for me."

After the Independent League all-star game, Kintzler caught his break when the Brewers came knocking.

"They sent me straight to Double-A, which was kind of a shocker," Kintzler said. "I had never even pitched above Low-A, so I was pretty excited about that chance they gave me."

During his brief tenure under Brewers control, he has impressed. Kintzler finished the 2009 season with Huntsville, striking out 32, while only walking nine in 35.1 innings. His success only continued to impress while closing games this year, but he felt his only walk was questionable.

"That was one walk was a strike by the way, it shouldn't have been a walk," Kintzler said.

He's also combined that solid K:BB ratio with an ability to keep the ball on the ground. Last season, his GO/AO (ground outs/air outs) ratio was a very solid 1.4:1. This year, those numbers have only gotten better. In 26.2 innings between Huntsville and Nashville, Kintzler has upped that ratio to 1.67:1. That probably helped lead to opponents batting just .149 off him.

"I was kind of nibbling when I got to Double-A last year," Kintzler said. "My mentality is just to attack hitters. If I can keep the ball down, they are just going to hit groundballs anyway."

With his solid numbers so far this season, if Kintzler is able to stay healthy, he could be yet another option to look at from the Nashville Sounds bullpen. John Axford, Kameron Loe and Zach Braddock have all made positive appearances after their callups. It's quite a story for a pitcher who found his career all but over a couple of years ago.

Suppan Makes Cardinals Debut

2010-06-15T23:09:00.000-07:00

After being signed by the Cardinals this week, Jeff Suppan made his first start as a Cardinal on Tuesday.

Here was Suppan's line against the light hitting Seattle Mariners:

73 Pitches (46 Strikes)
4.0 Innings Pitched
4 Hits
1 Run (Earned)
2 Walks
4 Strikeouts
1 Home Run

Take this with a grain of salt considering the Mariners' lineup is exactly the '27 Yankees. After Tuesday, they are averaging just 3.48 runs per game and rank near the bottom in every offensive category in the league.

The Cardinals pulled Suppan after four and went onto win 4-2. So what does this actually mean?

If anything, this is a good sign for the Brewers. If Suppan is in the rotation for an extended period of time, the better chance the Brewers can gain some ground on the Cardinals. Jeff Suppan is not a good pitcher. He doesn't belong on a major league roster.

Of course, the Cardinals were in need of another starter. Kyle Lohse just underwent surgery on a forearm injury and will miss an extended period of time. The Cardinals don't really have much starting pitching depth, so it is likely Suppan will be given the ball every fifth day for the time being. That is good news for every team in the NL Central.

Releasing Suppan couldn't have worked on any better for the Brewers. I laughed last week when Doug Melvin predicted Suppan would catch on somewhere in some teams rotation. What could've been better for the Brewers than him in St. Louis? Not only did they rid themselves of an awful pitcher, but he was picked up by a divisional rival the Brewers will need to catch.

Since 2008, Suppan's WAR stands at -1.0. Those numbers are unheard of. His FIPs (fielding independent pitching on an ERA scale) were 5.51, 5.70 and 4.89. I know, I know, Dave Duncan is amazing pitching coach, right? Maybe so, but there is no way, and I mean no way he can turn Suppan into a decent arm. There are just too many things working against him. Suppan might not have been worth $42 million when he left St. Louis, but he still had much better control, velocity and movement than the current state he is in.

One name to keep an eye on in the Cardinals organization if Suppan struggles is P.J. Walters. He has pretty good numbers thus far in AAA and should easily outproduce whatever Suppan brings to the table.

Mark your calendar for July 2nd. If the pitching matchups stay on schedule, Suppan will face the Brewers in St. Louis on that day. It should make for one entertaining day of baseball either way.

Casey McGehee: Back to Reality?

2010-06-14T09:00:00.000-07:00

Looking at the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers, one would have to be excited with the production of Casey McGehee.

After almost being cut prior to the season, McGehee went onto to post a .301/.360/.499/.859 line in 355 at bats. Even more impressive about that line was it came out of nowhere. McGehee's highest OPS in his pro career prior to 2009 was .776, and that was during the 2007 season while playing for AA West Tennessee.

There is no question McGehee's 2009 excited many fans, including myself, but many were also skeptical. How could Casey McGehee go from an average minor league hitter into an elite major league hitter in one season? That doesn't happen too often, so many predicted a regression from McGehee in 2010.

McGehee made skeptics look silly at the beginning of the year.

On May 20th, McGehee went 1-3 with two runs and a walk in a 4-3 Brewers victory over the Pittburgh Pirates. The win snapped a nine game losing streak for the Brewers. At the time McGehee had racked up 151 at bats. During that span, he posted a .325/.395/.570/.965 line.

Then, just as fast as McGehee had risen, he fell off. McGehee finished the month of May in pretty bad fashion. Here is his line over the final 11 days in May.

Batting Average: .214 (9-42)
On Base Percentage: .233 (one walk)
Slugging Percentage: .309 (4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR)
OPS: .542

That was not the finish to May fans were looking for, but it was just 42 at bats. Anyone can have a bad 42 at bats. What has occurred thus far in June has been a big red flag.

Batting Average: .159 (7-44)
On Base Percentage: .191 (two walks)
Slugging Percentage: .273 (2 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR)
OPS: .464

Over the last 22 games, McGehee is batting just .186. He has drawn just three walks, while striking out 19 times. He has only seven extra base hits and only homered once. His OPS, which was at .965 on May 20th, has fallen 165 points to an even .800. His walk rate on May 20th was 11.1%. He was striking out 13.6% of the time on that date as well. His walk rate has fallen to 8.8% and his strikeouts have risen to 16.9% after his recent struggle with plate discipline.

There is no doubt in my mind McGehee will not continue to struggle this bad. The main problem for the Brewers is what they are going to do going forward.

Mat Gamel has torn the cover off the ball since returning from his injury. He posted a 1.040 OPS in 28 at bats at AA Huntsville. Since his promotion to AAA Nashville, he has a .872 OPS in 28 at bats. He is knocking on the door to the major leagues.

The worst thing the Brewers could do would be to promote Gamel to the majors and limit his progress on the bench. Many seem to think Gamel is the future first baseman of this team. With that being said, getting him major league at bats needs to be a priority. Where do those at bats come from though? Should the Brewers sit McGehee in favor of Gamel? I thought a perfect chance to call Gamel up would come for the series in LA starting tonight. Even if he was promoted, that would solve little for the time being.

The move the organization seems to be considering is trading Prince Fielder at the deadline. If Fielder is dealt, Gamel could start immediately after the trade at first base. Seeing as it is unlikely Fielder will sign back with the Brewers, this needs to be the focus for now.

The Resurrection of Corey Hart

2010-06-13T18:51:00.000-07:00

When I did my 2010 season preview for the Brewers, one of the main players I focused on was Corey Hart.

Hart was coming off his second consecutive disappointing season and was at the forefront of trade talks. I heard many Brewers fans interested in a trade that would have sent Hart to the New York Mets for John Maine.

One of the biggest red flags surrounding Hart going into this season was his inability to drive the ball for power. There is a big difference between a .300 hitter who only hits singles and one who can deliver extra base hits regularly.

A very good stat to track that is ISO, or Isolated Power. Isolated Power is a hitters slugging percentage subtracted by his batting average. In 2007, Hart's first full season, he posted a very impressive .244 ISO. After that, it seemed like Hart's power was lost for good. In 2008, Hart's ISO dropped to .191. Although a .191 ISO isn't bad for a corner outfielder, it was a drop off from his very impressive 2007 numbers.

In 2009, his power numbers only got worse. In 419 at bats, Hart had 109 hits. Of those 109 hits, only 39 of them went for extra bases (24 doubles, three triples and 12 home runs). His ISO dropped another 33 points from 2008 to .158.

Then 2010 came. In 195 at bats this season, Corey Hart has 50 hits. Although hitting just .256 on the year, it's a very loud .256. Hart has 28 extra base hits. He leads the National League in home runs with 17. His .585 slugging percentage ranks 3rd in baseball. His ISO stands at .329, which is the best in the majors.

His patience at the plate is also encouraging. Hart's on base percentage currently sits at .335. Although that's nothing to write home about, it is 79 points higher than his batting average. He has drawn 23 walks this season. He is walking 10.4% of the time, which is 1.3% more than 2009.

There is a lot to be excited about with Corey Hart. This is a very pleasant surprise considering where Hart was after last season. Through nearly 200 at bats, there is evidence to think Hart can keep this up. He is very important to the success of the Milwaukee Brewers; this year and in the future. It's very easy to forget Hart is just 28 years old. He is not free agent eligible until 2012, although he would likely get a nice raise after this season.

The Brewers will have to look at the situation and figure out if Corey Hart is in their future plans. It's a nice problem to have after many had Hart's ticket punched out of town months ago.

Wolf Gone Wild

2010-06-09T23:50:00.000-07:00

When the Milwaukee Brewers inked Randy Wolf to a deal this offseason, they had a lot to like.

Wolf had nice strike out numbers. He had decent control. He was able to limit the longball and pitch deep into games. There were a lot of reasons why the Brewers used a good chunk of change on the 33 year old veteran southpaw.

Problem for the Milwaukee Brewers is a lot of those qualities Wolf possessed in the past couple of seasons have completely disappeared in Milwaukee.

Strikeout Rates

2007- 102.2 IP, 94 K's (8.24 K/9)
2008- 190.1 IP, 162 K's (7.66 K/9)
2009- 214.1 IP, 160 K's (6.72 K/9)
*2010*- 78 IP, 49 K's (6.28 K/9)

Walk Rates

2007- 102.2 IP, 39 BB (3.43 BB/9)
2008- 190.1 IP, 71 BB (3.36 BB/9)
2009- 214.1 IP, 58 BB (2.44 BB/9)
*2010*- 78 IP, 39 BB (4.50 BB/9)

Home Run Rates

2007- 102.2 IP, 10 HR's (0.88 HR/9)
2008- 190.1 IP, 21 HR's (0.99 HR/9)
2009- 214.1 IP, 24 HR's (1.01 HR/9)
*2010*- 78 IP, 15 HR's (1.73 HR/9)

Average Start Length

2007- 18 Starts, 102.2 IP (5.7 IP/Start)
2008- 33 Starts, 190.1 IP (5.8 IP/Start)
2009- 34 Starts, 214.1 IP (6.3 IP/Start)
*2010*- 13 Starts, 78 IP (6.0 IP/Start)

I really can't fault Doug Melvin with the signing of Randy Wolf. No one could have predicted this bad of a start from Wolf. His walks are up. His strikeouts are down. The number of fly balls he gives up has skyrocketed and has lead to an astronomical 1.73 HR per nine at the moment.

Coming off an absolute career season in LA last season made him one of the best free agent options last offseason. The only thing I was worried about with Wolf was he was coming from the NL West.

One look at Wolf's 2008 and 2009 season will reveal one thing: light opponent lineups. It's no secret, the NL West is not filled with offensive juggernauts. Wolf pitched in LA in 2007 and 2009 before pitching in Houston and San Diego in 2008. Facing the likes of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Padres and Giants can only help a pitcher.

Regardless of who he was facing, Wolf was still really incredible last season. I ask anyone to predict this bad of a fall off. Sure his strikeout numbers have dropped each of the last four seasons, but his walk totals had also dropped.

The biggest worry I have about this contract is the future. If Wolf is unable to regain his form, the Brewers could be in real trouble. It's gamble enough to spend a lot of money on an aging pitcher, but it's even worse when said pitcher fails to repeat any of his numbers from the prior year. The only thing I know if Wolf is a good pitcher who should only get better. Or at least I'm praying for that.

Jeff Suppan- A Tough Look Back

2010-06-07T11:03:00.000-07:00

Today, the Milwaukee Brewers did what should have been done a long time ago. By releasing Jeff Suppan, the club is now on the hook for about $10 million of his remaining salary. His 4 yr/$42 million contract now goes down as the worst in club history. Sure Jeffrey Hammonds was bad and the Eric Gagne experiment didn't work out, but nothing was as bad as Suppan. Let's take a look back at his career in Miwaukee.

December 24th, 2006

Brewers announce the signing of Jeff Suppan (4yr/$42 mil)

April 4th, 2007 to May 5th, 2007

Suppan starts the 2006 season with two losses, but rattles off five straight wins. After his first seven starts as a Brewer, Suppan is 5-2 with a 2.63 ERA. Even more encouraging, Suppan has learned to strike out batters and not issue walks. He starts the year with 27 strikeouts and eight walks in that span.

May 6th, 2007 to July 31st, 2007

Well, maybe Suppan hasn't learned. Over the next 16 starts, Suppan reverts to his current form. He walks 41 batters, while strikeout just 43 in those starts, spanning 91.1 innings. Over that time, Suppan goes 3-7 with an ERA over six.

August 2007 to end of season

Suppan rebounds to finish the season 12-12 with an ERA of 4.62. Fans begin to question if Suppan is overpaid, but at the time the Brewers got exactly what they paid for. Sure his ERA was a half run higher than his 2006 season in St. Louis, but his K rate actually rose and his walks decreased.

2008 Regular Season

Suppan's walks rise and his strikeouts fall. Not a good sign for a player in the second year of an abnormally large contract. Even worse, in the midst of a playoff race, Suppan takes the ball five times in September. His numbers is those starts were a joke. He averaged just over four innings in those starts and ended with a 8.44. He goes 0-3 on the month and the Brewers lose four out of his five starts. He ends the season 10-10 with a 4.96 ERA.

October 5th, 2008

(NLDS Game 4)- Dale Sveum wonders why he wasn't offered the managerial job after the 2008 season. Sveum allows Suppan to start Game 4 of the NLDS. The Brewers were facing elimination and gave the ball to their worst starter. Suppan is greeted rudely with a leadoff home run from Jimmy Rollins. It didn't stop there. Suppan is pulled after just three innings and the Brewers trail 5-0. He allowed six hits (three of which were HR's), five runs (all earned), walked two and struck out three. The Brewers lose the game 6-2 and are eliminated from the playoffs. So much for his playoff experience being a huge deal.

April 7th, 2009

Ken Macha starts his tenure in Milwaukee in a very confusing manner by selecting Suppan to start the season opener in San Francisco. Slated against Tim Lincecum, many Brewers fans assumed an 0-1 start to the season. Suppan doesn't disappoint. He goes just four innings and allows six runs (all earned). The Brewers lose 10-6.

July 27th, 2009

If there is one series where I can remember the fans being the most frustrated, it was last year against the Washington Nationals. Suppan starts the game and goes 5.1 innings and allows 10 runs (all earned). This is the first time I could remember the boos really resounding at Suppan. Sure there were rumblings before, but this terrible start really angered fans. It's one thing to get rocked, but another to get rocked by a Nationals team that was 30-68. The Brewers lose 14-6 after Josh Willingham launches two grand slams.

October 4th, 2009

With the Brewers long since eliminated for playoff contention, Suppan for some reason is given the start over Chris Narveson. He is pulled after two innings and ends the season with 80 strikeouts and 74 walks in 161.2 innings. In his 30 starts, he went 7-12 with a 5.29 ERA. Frustration with Suppan jumps to an all time high.

2010 Offseason

After the Brewers signed Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, they were left with seven starters for five spots. Suppan was not cemented in a spot, but is still in the running. He suffers and injury and starts the season on the DL. This bailed Ken Macha off the hook for the meantime considering the only justification for keeping Suppan was his awful contract.

April 15th, 2010

Suppan is activated off the DL and is given the 5th spot in the rotation. He starts against the Cubs at Wrigley and gives up four runs in five innings. Despite his rough outing, the Brewers go onto win 8-6.

April 23rd, 2010

Suppan is given his second start of the season (both against the Cubs). He is lit up to the tune of 10 hits, six runs (five earned) and is pulled in the 5th. The Brewers lose the game 8-1 and Suppan is sent to the bullpen.

May 30th, 2010

Ken Macha draws his biggest critics of the season by inserting Suppan into a tie game against the New York Mets. Suppan gives up two in the sixth and is left out for the seventh, where he surrenders two more runs before being taken out mid inning. He exits with the loudest roar of boos I've ever heard at Miller Park. The Brewers go onto lose the game 10-4.

June 4th, 2010

Suppan appears in a blowout in St. Louis. He goes 1.1 innings and gives up three more runs. It was Suppan's third game in a row he allowed a run to score. It also turned out to be the last time he appeared as a Milwaukee Brewer.

Today

Jeff Suppan is released and has his contract go down with some of the worst in baseball history.

Here are his numbers while pitching for the Brewers...

577 IP
29 Wins
36 Loses
5.08 ERA
700 Hits
302 Strikeouts
221 Walks
.303 BAA
1.5 WAR

In this market, the going rate for one win above replacement level is about $4 million. Multiply Suppan's 1.5 WAR in his time in Milwaukee by that and it's easy to see just how bad this contract was. A $6 million return on a $42 million contract is really tough to overcome for a smaller market team like Milwaukee.

Check back soon for a look at what the Brewers options are for Suppan's open roster spot. With the injury to Coffey, they now have two open spots to fill.

I'll leave you with a quote from Doug Melvin. " I am confident that he can return to a starting rotation with another organization." Come on Doug, you're not fooling anyone. Suppan is a bad pitcher who was overpaid for a couple of playoff starts. Anyone who gives him major league starts is in trouble.

The Wildcard: Chris Capuano

2010-06-02T08:22:00.000-07:00

It may come as a surprise to many Brewers fans, but Chris Capuano never left the organization. His last start in the major leagues was September 28, 2007 at Miller Park against the San Diego Padres.

So where has he been since then?

Checking the DL would be a good start.

During Spring Training prior to the 2008 season, Capuano suffered an elbow injury. That injury led to Tommy John surgery. It was Capuano's second Tommy John surgery of his career.

Like many fans, I wrote off the possibility of Cappy ever making a return to professional baseball. It's tough enough to come back from one TJS, let alone two.

For two years, it looked like I was unfourtunately right. Capuano finally appeared in a game for the Brewers rookie level affiliate near the end of 2009. Capuano was only able to rack up nine innings in the minors before the end of 2009. Sure it was a start, but it wasn't all that encouraging.

After being invited to Spring Training in 2010, Capuano was again shut down due to arm injury. He rehabed and was sent to the minor leagues to start the season. What Capuano did there completely put him back on the Brewers' radar. His numbers in Brevard County and Nashville this season were impressive.

Brevard County (A)-

3 Games (all starts)
(2-0), 1.23 ERA
14.2 IP
12 Hits
2 Runs (2 ER)
17 Strikeouts
0 Walks

Nashville (AAA)-

4 Games (all starts)
(1-1), 1.80 ERA
25 IP
21 Hits
6 Runs (5 ER)
16 Strikeouts
4 Walks

Those are very good numbers. Even more impressive to me was how deep Capuano was pitching into games at Nashville. He was pulled after four scoreless innings in his last start because he was being called up, so I'll throw that out the window. In three starts in Nashville, Capuano went 21 innings. That's an average of seven innings a start. His pitch count in those starts have been even more impressive.

May 13th- 8.0 Innings, 84 pitches
May 18th- 6.1 Innings, 84 pitches
May 23rd- 6.2 Innings, 98 pitches
May 28th- 4.0 Innings, 59 pitches (Pulled for callup)

That means Capuano threw an average of just 13 pitches per inning in Nashville. To put that in perspective, the Brewers have not been able to keep their pitches that low. Entering today, Brewers' hurlers have average 18.08 pitches an inning. That's good for last place in the majors. The Minnesota Twins have thrown the least amount of pitches with 15.31 an inning. He should provide a nice option to help limit the burden that is being put on the bullpen.

Eating innings is one thing, but Capuano should also provide quality innings. His 39:4 K:BB ratio is very impressive through seven minor league starts this season. If he is able to keep up anywhere near that place in Milwaukee, he will be a welcomed newcomer. I'm really hoping he can provide the Brewers something they weren't really banking on. Comeback player of the year could be on the horizon for Cappy in 2010.

Enough is Enough

2010-05-31T07:47:00.000-07:00

With the Brewers tied at two with the New York Mets after five innings Sunday, Brewers fans had reason to be excited. The Brewers had won five of six and were hoping to sweep and finish the homestand 5-1.

And then, with one phone call, those hopes diminished.

Jeff Suppan was called on to pitch the sixth inning. I've wrote about my disappointment on how Jeff Suppan was still on the roster, but then using him in a tie game? There was no justification for this. Sure the bullpen was used heavily after Saturday, but there were still options.

Nevertheless, maybe Suppan could salvage a scoreless frame. He wasn't exactly facing murderers row. The Mets were scheduled to send Angel Pagan, Jeff Francouer and Henry Blanco. Maybe there was some hope. Well, maybe not.

Here's how the inning went.

Angel Pagan bunted to Casey McGehee for the first out
Jeff Francouer singled
Henry Blanco singled
RA Dickey sacraficed Blanco to second
Jose Reyes was intentionally walked
Luis Castillo singled (Francouer and Blanco scored)
Jason Bay struck out

The Brewers found themselves down 4-2, but they were still in striking range. After a scoreless bottom of the sixth, my jaw literally dropped watching Jeff Suppan run out to the mound again to start the 7th. So how did that go?

Ike Davis struck out
David Wright hit a ground rule double
Angel Pagan homered (Wright scored)
Henry Blanco walked
RA Dickey sacraficed Blanco to second

Jeff Suppan was then pulled. His final line: 1.2 IP, six hits, four runs (all earned), two walks, two strikeouts. Three of Suppan's five outs were via bunt outs. The Brewers found themselves down 6-2 and missing an opportunity to inch closer to the .500 mark.

After his awful outing Sunday, Suppan's numbers are as follows:

13 Games (2 starts)
28.2 IP
44 Hits
24 Runs (23 ER)
4 Home Runs Allowed
11 Walks
17 Strikeouts

And they say $13.5 million can't buy you anything anymore.

I ask Doug Melvin this... Why is his still on the team? What does he provide that can't be found elsewhere?

Sure Melvin will say what the do with Suppan is not financially motivated, but how can't it be? The only thing keeping him on the team is his salary. Isn't it bad enough he is making that kind of money? Why compound matters by allowing to pitch (and pitch in meaningful situations at that)? My hope is just that when the Brewers decide to drop this 14 man pitching staff down, Suppan's is the head that rolls.

Moving Websites

2010-05-28T08:19:00.000-07:00

I purchased the domain brewers365.com the other day. I will be moving the blog over there. The website brewcrewdaily.blogspot.com will still be able to be used, but it will forward you to the new site. Should be working soon. Thanks.

Should He Stay, or Should He Go?

2010-05-19T08:51:00.000-07:00

That seems to be the question on everyone's mind right now. What are the Brewers going to do with Ken Macha?

The Brewers currently stand at 15-24. They stand alone in 5th place in the National League Central Division and are free falling towards the cellar. As is usually the case, someone needs to have blame placed on them. The resounding voice of Brewers nation thinks that man is Ken Macha.

He's boring. He's stupid. He doesn't know how to win.

Those are some of the ways fans describe Ken Macha. While I don't disagree Macha has poorly managed games this season, I think too much blame is being placed on him.

In sports, too much stock is put into managers and coaches. In baseball, that is taken to a whole new level. For the most part, the game is decided by the players. There is little a manager can do to change the fate of his team. He can change lineups, change pitchers and sit players, but at the end of the day, it's the responsibility of the players to perform.

However, while the players need to perform, the manager's job is to give his team the best chance to win. Has Ken Macha done that so far... no.

Adam Stern has gotten three important at bats. That's three too many.

Chris Narveson threw 130 pitches in his last start. Words cannot describe how incredibly unnecessary and dumb that is. Do you want to know what can happen when pitchers throw too many pitches, look at any Dusty Baker managed team. He destroyed Mark Prior's career and has is off to a similar start in Cincinnati (Edinson Volquez).

The bullpen is completely spent. Sure the starters deserve some blame, but pitching pitchers for multiple innings and on consecutive days doesn't help matters.

Jim Edmonds has started 15 games in centerfield. Despite an average UZR this season, Edmonds doesn't belong in center at this point in his career. Numerous times, Jody Gerut played a corner outfield spot even though he covers way, and I mean way, more ground than Edmonds.

Those are just some of the examples off the top of my head that would justify a pink slip in Macha's office. Personally, I don't really have a problem with his relaxed attitude. If he was winning games, fans would not grumble about it either. Just because a manager has a personality, doesn't mean he's a good manager (sorry to pick on you Dusty Baker). Jerry Royster got in a fight on the mound with Mike DeJean, he was fired. Davey Lopes was just about as fired up as they come, but couldn't dog a 3-12 start to the 2002 season andlost his job. Phil Garner is another example. The list goes on and on. Having an intense personality doesn't coincide with winning games.

Saying that Macha doesn't know how to win doesn't really speak to his tenure in Oakland. While managing the Athletics, Macha won an average of 92 games a year. Something tells me Brewers' fans would take a 92-70 record this season.

So why was Macha successful in Oakland? It all goes back to talent. Talent dictates the amount of games a team wins, not a manager. Those Oakland teams had much better pitching than the Brewers. It's tough to run a bullpen into a ground when the manager has multiple quality starters who consistently pitch deep into games. At the most, a manager can influence a couple of games a season, but the players have far more control than that.

With that being said, I think it is time for a change. Will Willie Randolph do anything better than Ken Macha? Probably not. Just ask New York Met fans their opinion of Randolph. I bet they wouldn't be the best reference on Randolph's behalf. Even so, I have to say, this team looks pretty defeated. Sometimes a shakeup is in order. What can it really hurt? The Brewers are playing some of the worst baseball I've seen since 2002. While it's not entirely in their control, that's how managers are evaluated. The Brewers are 70-92 in their last 162 games and have won 15 of 39 games so far this season. That is not a good way to keep your job in a city that is looking to win now.

Gregg Zaun: The Victim of Irrationality

2010-05-16T22:42:00.000-07:00

As is normally par for course, sports fans are very quick to judge.

If a basketball player knocks down his first three pointer in the league, he's an assassin. If a field goal kicker shanks his first kick, he is terrible. There is an example for every sport, so I'll just stop there.

In my 21 years in this great city, I have realized this is taken to the next level. I was there when Prince Fielder was booed after starting the 2006 season 0 for 11 with seven strikeouts. Sure Lyle Overbay was a big fan favorite, but there was no sense in that. Then of course, there was Brad Nelson. Nelson went 0 for 21 in 2009. He hit the ball relatively hard, but never really caught any breaks. I heard so many fans say Brad Nelson was the worst player ever. Sure not getting a hit in his tenure didn't help, but that statement is completely false. He had a tough run and it cost him his job. He was DFA'd by the Brewers and currently in is the Seattle Mariners organization.

That 0-21 streak stood until this season when Gregg Zaun had a similar start. In fact, they were way too similar. Zaun went 0 for his first 21 also. He hit the ball hard like Nelson. He, also, became the whipping boy of Brewers' nation.

If I had a $1 for every time I heard how bad Gregg Zaun was in the first two weeks, I might be able to help the Brewers resign Prince Fielder. It was an absolute joke. Of course, to make things worse, Jason Kendall recorded a hit in his first 14 games as a Royal. This brought in the "why did we get rid of Kendall for this bum" comments. The Brewers got rid of Jason Kendall because he wanted too much money and frankly, wasn't any good. The last time I checked, team success wasn't measured in terms of "grittiness," if that makes sense.

So what has Zaun done since that 0-21 start? Absolutely rake.

Entering Sunday, Zaun's was hitting .272/.346/.402/.748. That's in just 92 at bats for the season. It's so hard to raise your batting average in that short of a span following a prolonged slump. In those 71 post slump AB's, Zaun had 25 hits. He also had seven extra base hits (2 HRs) and drove in 13 runs. He walked eight times. Those are incredible numbers for any player, but even more impressive from a catcher.

Kendall has done nothing, but resort back to his old form. Since his 14 game hitting streak, he is 17-72 (.236). He has just four extra base hits (all doubles). He is nowhere near the offensive threat Gregg Zaun is and is not a better defender.

The upgrade from Kendall to Zaun is huge. Zaun is showing his original doubters he still can play baseball. It's nice to know the Brewers have a backstop who has some offensive production. The combination of Zaun and George Kottaras has some potential to be one of the better catching duos in baseball in terms of offensive production. Good backstops in baseball are few and far between. Fans need to realize that before calling for someone's head 21 at bats into a season. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Fans should realize that the next time they are caught in the heat of the moment.

Solving the Problem that is the 'Pen

2010-05-15T12:01:00.000-07:00

Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen Statistics through Saturday morning:

117.1 IP, 4-7 5.68 ERA, 79 Runs, 74 ER, 50 BB, 105 K, .292 BAA

To put it lightly, that's not very good.

Here are the Brewers ranks in each category in MLB out of 30 teams:

IP: (7th most)
ERA: (29th)
Runs Allowed: (28th)
ER Allowed: (28th)
Walks Allowed: (20th)
Strikeouts: (8th)
Batting Average Against: (30th)

It's been well documented; the bullpen is really struggling right now.

So what can be done to fix this?

Obviously, moves need to be made. Currently the Milwaukee Brewers are wasting very valuable spots on their roster. Players like Adam Stern and Jeff Suppan serve no purpose. Why waste roster space with players that don’t benefit your team? Jeff Suppan is in the last year of his deal. The Brewers are not fooling anybody. He is not going to garner any trade value, so why not release him?

Obviously Stern will be sent out of Milwaukee went Carlos Gomez returns, so where else can the Brewers find other space?

Look not further than Claudio Vargas.

Vargas is now exclusively a reliever. FSN has given him the nickname "Magic Man" due to the large amount of jams he gets into and somehow has escaped thus far. Even with the fortunate luck, Vargas is still allowing too many walks and has shown a propensity to the gopher ball. He could serve some use as a long reliever, but not at the back end of the bullpen.

My solution is to release Suppan and Vargas (possibly could land a low level prospect in a trade). By doing this, the Brewers would free up two roster spots to help out the drained bullpen.

Two players who would fill in perfectly are Zach Braddock and Chris Smith.

Braddock has been incredible in the Brewers system the past couple of years. Combined between A and AA ball last season, Braddock was lights out. In 40.1 innings, he struck out 62 batters. That's good enough for a 13.83 K/9. Even more impressive was his control. He walked only seven batters in that same span for a BB/9 rate of 1.56. He has only continued his amazing work at AAA Nashville this season. He has pitched 15 innings and struck out 27 with eight walks. He could be the lockdown lefty the Brewers are lacking in their bullpen. He would also give Ken Macha another lefty option other than Mitch Stetter.

Chris Smith pitched alright in Milwaukee last season. He has been able to avoid bats and shown very good control. He is by no means the best reliever in baseball, but has done the best he can with his lack of velocity. In AAA Nashville this season, Smith has been the closer. He has saved 12 games and thrown 13.2 innings. He has fanned 19 batters and walked only four batters.

With Smith and Braddock, the Brewers have to capable pitchers. The Brewers need any arm they can find to help the current crop of relievers. They need to stop wasting spots on players who won't help anything and use them on useful options. There is no reason not to give both pitchers and Ken Macha that chance to get back to some sense of assurance. It's tough to feel safe with any lead right now.

eHow: To Run a Bullpen into the Ground

2010-05-14T11:32:00.000-07:00

If there is one thing you can expect from a Ken Macha managed team, it's a depleted bullpen.

To be fair, Macha hasn't been blessed with a huge arsenal of starting pitching, but he hasn't helped either. Pulling pitchers from games early for no reason, pitching relievers on consecutive days for multiple innings are the perfect way to end up in the current situation they're in.

Wednesday April 14th at Chicago Cubs

Dave Bush was cruising at Wrigley. In six innings of work, Bush surrendered just two runs on seven hits. He had struck out two batters, while not walking anyone. Bush allowed an infield single off the end of the bat in the bottom of the sixth, but otherwise had a very easy inning. After six, the Brewers lead 3-2. I remember being at the game, looking in complete shock as Jody Gerut grabbed a bat to pinch hit for Bush. Dave had thrown just 77 pitches and was commanding all of his pitches. Gerut flew out for Bush and the bullpen allowed four runs in the eighth to lose 7-6. With 77 pitches, it was easy to think Bush could've finished one, if not two more innings.

Carlos Villanueva

Villanueva might be the biggest example of a pitcher who is overworked. He started the season on fire, but has fizzled out lately. In his last two appearances, Villanueva has given up six earned runs in 1.2 innings. He has been up in the zone and has seen a drop in velocity. So what's causing this?

It could easily be early season misuse.

Villanueva and Todd Coffey are tied for 11th in the National League in appearances. They both have pitched in 17 games this season. Worse yet, Villanueva has thrown multiple innings numerous four times this year (2.0 IP in each). Sure Villanueva used to be a starter, but multiple innings in consecutive outings really takes a toll on the arm.

Times Pitched in Consecutive Games

Villanueva-4
Coffey- 4
Hawkins- 3
Parra- 3
Hoffman- 2 (Blew Saves both times)
Vargas- 1
Narveson- 1

In the first 34 games this season, the Brewers relievers have had to appear in way to many consequetive games. I'm not faulting Ken Macha entirely. Short starts have lead to a lot of innings the bullpen has had to log. My biggest problem is what games the relievers were used in. Todd Coffey and Carlos Villanueva have worked in back to back games unneccessarily a couple of times. What is the point of pitching one of those pitchers in a blowout game if they pitched the night before? The only thing that can do is where down an arm.

I'm not really concerned about how they fare in that game, but the road that lies ahead. Todd Coffey was overused last year and has started to see it catch up with him. His velocity is down and his pitches aren't moving as much. Mitch Stetter saw a similar decline at the end of last season when he lost all ability to throw a strike.

On paper, the Brewers should have one of the best bullpens in the National League. The starting pitching is a big reason for the large amount of innings, but Ken Macha is also to blame. If he is unable to show any ability to manage a bullpen, it will cost the Brewers mightily. Possibly, also his job.

Adam Stern: The Confusing Promotion

2010-05-11T13:48:00.000-07:00

When Carlos Gomez was placed on the 15 day DL Monday, I was interested in seeing who would come up. The Brewers had a lot of options. Would Adam Heether get his first chance in the bigs? What about Zach Braddock? Chris Smith has been very impressive this season. Maybe he would get the nod.

Like I said, a lot of options.

That excitement immediately turned to confusion when the Brewers announced the callup of Adam Stern.

Stern, 30, is nothing more than a well traveled minor leaguer. Milwaukee is his fourth organization. He has only logged 35 at bats in the major leagues. In those at bats, Stern has just five hits and hasn't drawn a walk. That equates to a .143/.143/.257/.400 line. Granted 35 at bats in an extremely small sample size, but those numbers are not very good.

The main problem I have with the promotion is it made no sense. Calling Stern up did nothing to address the Brewers current concerns.

The Brewers are in need of a right handed bat off the bench. Adam Stern bats left handed.

The Brewers could use some help in a bullpen that has been overworked thus far. Adam Stern is a position player.

The Brewers could use a power lefty in the bullpen. Again, Adam Stern is a position player.

What makes matters worse is the three players mentioned at the beginning of this article are capable of helping the Brewers in at least one of those three categories.

Adam Heether could be a viable, right handed hitting option off the bench.

Chris Smith could help ease the workload of the bullpen.

Zach Braddock could also help eat some innings and has shown the ability to be a dominant lefty out of the 'pen.

To be fair, Ryan Braun was hit with a pitch Monday night and his status going forward is undetermined (he is sitting out Tuesday). However, the Brewers already had a surplus of outfielders to begin with. Even with Braun and Gomez out, the Brewers already have four outfielders on the roster (Inglett, Hart, Edmonds and Gerut).

Adam Heether spent time at every infield position in 2009 and even played in left field. While playing full time last season, Heether posted a .901 OPS. Even more encouraging, Heether drew 59 walks for a .400 OBP. Heether's 2009 was more of the same from him. He's put up very good numbers in the minors, but has never been given a chance.

Stern was hitting .349 in his time in Nashville. Sure that sounds good, but that was in just 43 at bats. Stern reminds me of Corey Patterson (Brewers edition). Patterson somehow put up a .963 OPS in Nashville last season. Because of his play, Corey was promoted to Milwaukee where he promptly had a single in 14 at bats and didn't draw a walk. The fact of the matter is Stern has failed to post an OPS over .800 after 2005 as a corner outfielder.

Sure I could be over thinking this, but moves like this frustrate me. I don't want Ken Macha to even have the opportunity of starting Stern for a game. Of course after posting this article, Stern will rake in his brief time in the majors. In baseball, the object of the game is to give yourself the best chance to win. Regardless of how he plays, Adam Stern is not the best option for the Milwaukee Brewers.

The State of the Brewers (May 4th Edition)

2010-05-04T09:55:00.000-07:00

Record: 10-15 (T-4th NL Central, 7.5 games back)

Runs Scored: 128 (5.1 per game)

Runs Against: 138 (5.5 per game)

Run Differential: -10

Pythagorean Record: 12-13

One of the biggest worries I had about this team in 2010 was the offense that was lost. After not resigning Mike Cameron and trading J.J. Hardy, it was tough to think this team could match it's offensive prowess. However, through 25 games, the Brewers are averaging better than five runs per game. They have a team OBP of .353 (4th in MLB). They OPS stands at a very solid .795.

So why is this team not better? Well, there's two easy answers to that. They can't play the Pittsburgh Pirates every game and they can't keep the other team off the scoreboard.

One thing I have noticed about baseball over the past couple of seasons is how quick fans can jump to conclusions. If you team goes into a slump, they suck. If a player goes 4-5 on opening day, he has superstar potential. Right now, the Brewers' pythagorean (run adjusted) record is 12-13. Usually, that is a decent way of determining how good a baseball team is. Problem is, it doesn't always work. You can fool the pythagorean record by having a great back end of the bullpen and winning close game. Or, you can fool it 2010 Milwauakee Brewers style.

This season, despite going only 4-2 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Milwaukee Brewers have outscored the Pirates 61-17. That means that nearly half of the Brewers 128 runs this season have come at the expense of Pirates' pitching. That also means that just 17 runs have scored in those games against the Brewers.

Let's have some fun and take away the Brewers games against the Pirates this season.

Record: 6-13

Runs Scored: 67

Runs Against: 121

Differential: -54

In the 19 games the Brewers have played this season versus opponent other than the Pittsburgh Pirates, they have been absolutely dominated. They are scoring just 3.5 runs per game, while allowing 6.4. Those numbers are not only alarming, they are unheard of. If it wasn't for back to back blown saves by Trevor Hoffman, half of the Brewers 2010 wins would have come against the Pirates.

After 2009, the main focus of the Brewers front office became pitching. Immediately they did whatever they could to address a glaring hole. Randy Wolf was signed to a healthy contract. Doug Davis was added for stability. LaTroy Hawkins was signed to lessen the blow dealt after the Mark DeFilice injury.

About a month into the season, it seems the Brewers didn't do enough to address the problem. The team ERA stands at 5.09, which is 26th out of 30 major league teams. The Brewers setup man and closer have combined to give up more runs than innings they've pitched. Trevor Hoffman currently leads the majors in blown saves with four (in those games, the Brewers have lost three). Oh yeah, and Jeff Suppan still wears a Brewers uniform.

Either way you look at it, it hasn't been pretty.

Believe it or not, pitching is not a huge concern for me about this team. As a staff, the Brewers have struck out 194 batters, while walking 90 in 223 innings. Brewers pitching has had awful luck this season. Opponents have a BABIP of .366 against Milwaukee pitching. No matter how you look at it, this is not one of the worst staffs in all of baseball.

Where the Brewers go from here is the important question.

I think it is very apparent the Brewers cannot compete with the St. Louis Cardinals this season. The are giving up only 3.0 runs per game, while scoring 4.7. They have the most wins in the National League with 18. They already have a 7.5 games lead over this Milwaukee team.

Does that mean this team can't make a run at the wildcard? Absolutely not. The wildcard is pretty much up for grabs this season in the National League, but common sense has to take over in Milwaukee. While a run at the wildcard is possible, it's not probable. Anytime you are already looking at the wildcard standings less than a month into the season, it's time to reevaluate your goals.

First things first, release Jeff Suppan and Claudio Vargas. Obviously the Jeff Suppan decision seems obvious, but with Vargas it's not so straight forward.

After watching this team, it's became very obvious they are in need to two things: a right handed bat off the bench and a lefty in the bullpen. There has been so many instances this season where the Brewers have been forced to stay with a player when they shouldn't have had to because no righties were on the bench. Adam Heether, who is in AAA, remains the best internal option for this need. Sure he's hitting just above .200, but still has shown high walk and power totals this season. He also has shown the ability to play multiple positions. He might not play them all well, but that has never stopped Ken Macha before (i.e. Jim Edmonds in CF).

For the much needed lefty out of the 'pen, there is no reason Mitch Stetter, or Zach Braddock shouldn't be in Milwaukee right now. Through his first seven appearances, Braddock has logged 11.1 innings. In that span, Braddock has struck out 22 batters and walked just four. That means he has struck out 55% of the batters who have stepped to the dish. Not surprisingly, he is yet to allow and run and has only given up three hits. Incredible. Mitch Stetter has gone down and thrown 7.2 innings and struck out eight, while walking two. He has allowed two runs. Also impressive, but Braddock is on another level.

The 5th Starter

2010-04-26T11:29:00.000-07:00

Now that Jeff Suppan has been relegated to the bullpen (finally), there is an open battle for the fifth spot in the Brewers rotation. The two internal candidates to fill the void are Chris Narveson and Manny Parra.

It has been announced that Narveson will immediately fill in for Suppan. This was very surprising considering how both pitchers have looked this season. Here are there stats thus far.

Manny Parra: (0-0, 0.00 ERA), 7.2 IP, 7 hits, 0 ER (0 R), 6:1 GB:FB ratio, 8 K, 1 BB

Chris Narveson: (1-0, 7.20 ERA), 10 IP, 17 hits, 8 ER, (9 R), 1.4:1 GB:FB ratio, 6 K, 7 BB

Sure those number are an extremely small sample size, but Parra's numbers are very impressive. Parra has always been pretty good at keeping the ball on the ground, but has a relatively high HR's per FB %. This has led me to think he has been an unlucky pitcher.

I was shocked considering the future potential of each pitcher. Narveson isn't over the hill, but doesn't have the upside as Parra. Parra still has four years until he hits free agency. He is surely in the future plans of this club, but is being relegated to the bullpen. Narveson clearly has the talent to pitch in the major leagues, but so does Parra.

While Narveson has struggled thus far this season, he is capable of keeping the fifth spot in the rotation. He was very impressive last season while starting, an possess very good control. He walked just 16 batters in 47 innings last season, while striking out 46. That equated to a 3.83 ERA. He isn't able to keep the ball on the ground as well as Parra, but has managed to keep it in the ballpark. In over 1000 minor league innings, Narveson's career HR/9 is just south of one.

However you look at it, the damage has been limited with Suppan. Sure he was given two starts over pitcher he is clearly worse than, but the Brewers were able to split the games. He will head to the 'pen with a 0-1 record and an ERA of 8.68. At this point I can hope, but figure the Brewers will not release Suppan. Sure there are better pitchers internally than Suppan, but they aren't making $14.5 million this season. Doug Melvin said Suppan's two starts weren't financially motivated, but how else could they be justified? I just don't see them releasing Suppan and paying more than $20 million this season to players who aren't on the ballclub (the Brewers are currently paying $7.15 of Bill Hall's contract).

One reason Parra might not be moving into the rotation is the need for a solid lefty out of the bullpen. This is even more reason to release Suppan and free up a roster spot. That roster spot could be used for Mitch Stetter, who was sent down when Suppan was activated off the disabled list. Since his demotion, Stetter is yet to allow a run in four games. In those four games, he has logged 5.1 innings and struck out six, while walking two. If last year's strike out streak is any indication of what Stetter can bring, there is no reason he should be in Nashville. Anyone can be a long reliever. There is no sense in wasting a valuable roster spot on someone for fear of releasing his enormous salary and looking bad. Jeff Suppan is of no value to this club. It's time to just cut your losses.

Moving forward, this is an immediate upgrade to a rotation that hasn't performed thus far. Something tells me the combination of Manny Parra and Chris Narveson can outperform the -0.7 WAR Suppan posted in 2009.

Domination in Pittsburgh

2010-04-22T12:31:00.000-07:00

Words cannot describe how badly the Milwaukee Brewers dominated the Pittsburgh Pirates this week. Here's a look at the pitching/hitting stats for the series.

Brewers starting pitchers: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 18 IP, 0 ER (0 R) 15 K, 7 BB
Pirates starting pitchers: 0-3, 15.82 ERA 9.2 IP, 17 ER (19 R), 8 K, 9 BB

Brewers relievers: 0-0, 1.00 ERA, 9 IP, 1 ER (1 R), 7 K, 2 BB
Pirates relievers: 0-0, 7.79 ERA, 17.1 IP, 15 ER (17 R), 13 K, 10 BB

Brewers hitters: 46-125 (.368), 36 runs, 8 HR, 91 total bases, 18 BB
Pirates hitters: 18-95 (.189), 1 run, 0 HR, 24 total bases, 12 BB

Now for the fun facts.

The Brewers scored 36X the runs as the Pirates (36-1)

The Brewers scored more runs than the Pirates had total bases (36-24)

The Brewers scored in 15 different innings; The Pirates scored in one.

Dave Bush walked as many times as the Pirates scored.

The Brewers bullpen recorded just two fewer outs than the Pirates starting pitchers (29-27).

Randy Wolf had as many hits as the Pirates middle infield (Wolf: 2-3; Iwamura and Cedeno 2-21).

The Pirates had six extra base hits; The Brewers had 25.

While on the topic... the Brewers had seven more extra base hits than the Pirates had total hits.

With RISP, the Brewers were 17-47; The Pirates were 2-25.

Pirates relievers recorded 52 outs; their starters recorded 29.

Pirates pitchers threw 562 pitches. The Brewers' staff threw 436.

The Pirates team ERA (already a league worst going into the series) raised from 6.34 to 7.23.

The Brewers team ERA dropped from 6.06 to 4.88.

The Pirates were averaging 4.42 runs per game coming into the series. That dropped to 3.53 after the series.

The Brewers were averaging 5.42 runs per game. That ballooned to 6.73 after the series, which is good for tops in MLB.

Anyway you look at it, this one of the most lopsided series in history of baseball.

Coming into this roadtrip, the Brewers had to like their chances. Playing nine games against the Cubs, Nationals and Pirates should be an easy roadtrip. But after dropping four of the first five, the Brewers were staring a losing road trip in the face. They scored 47 runs over the next four games, winning all of them. That secured a winning road trip.

The Brewers will now head home to face the Chicago Cubs. Stay tuned for a preview coming soon.

Jason Marquis and Doug Davis

2010-04-18T11:56:00.001-07:00

Top of the first (Brewers batting)

Weeks singled
Counsell singled, Weeks to third
Braun singled, Weeks scored, Counsell to second
Fielder hit by pitch, Counsell to third, Braun to second
McGehee walked, Counsell scored, Braun to third, Fielder to second
Edmonds hit by pitch, Braun scored, Fielder to third, McGehee to second
Zaun singled, Fielder scored, McGehee to third, Edmonds to second

That was the entire day on Sunday for Jason Marquis. He didn't record an out and was responsible for three runners, all of whom scored. His final line...

0 IP, 4 hits, 7 runs (all earned), one walked , 2 hit batters, no strike outs

It wasn't the first time he has struggled this season. In his first two starts as a National, Marquis was 0-2 with a 12.96 ERA. So after today, Marquis is 0-3 with a 20.52 ERA.

Marquis was an all star in 2009 while pitching for the Colorado Rockies, but struggled in second half. After the mid-summer classic, Marquis' ERA was 4.56. Despite the rough finish, the Nationals rewarded Marquis with a two year, $15 million contract.

The best part of this was how big of a bullet the Brewers dodged here.

I found it very interesting Marquis was matched up with Doug Davis on Sunday. Both pitchers were linked to the Brewers this offseason. Both are at the back end of their careers. Both have struggled with their new teams in 2010.

The key for the Brewers is both don't have the same contracts. I was cringing when the Brewers were linked to Marquis early in the offseason. After reports that the Mets were pursuing him hard, the Brewers interest cooled. Marquis was looking for a three year, $30 million contract when the Brewers had interest. Signing Marquis would've been Jeff Suppan v 2.0.

Davis was signed instead to a one year deal worth $5.25 million. A much better idea considering Davis is a better pitcher and was signed for cheaper and shorter in length.

While Marquis has consistently racked up innings, he has also consistent failed to strike out batters. His career 5.3 K/9 is awful (also heavily weighted from earlier in his career). Pair that with rising walk totals (3.6 BB/9 in last three seasons) and Marquis looks like a bad contract waiting to happen.

Davis isn't Dan Haren when it comes to controlling the ball either. His 4.4 BB/9 in last three seasons is amongst the worst in baseball, but he can combat that with strikeouts. In that same span, Davis posted 6.7 K/9 on average. Sure those aren't the numbers of an ace, but they are good enough to round out a rotation.

Be upset if you want to about the way Doug Davis has pitched this season, but it could be worse. I'm just thankful Jason Marquis isn't priced into our rotation for the next three years the way Jeff Suppan was.

Series Preview: Cubs

2010-04-12T08:43:00.000-07:00

Monday: Doug Davis (0-0, 9.00) vs. Ryan Dempster (0-0, 1.50)

Davis somehow managed four decent innings on Wednesday after a horrendous first inning. All in all, he allowed four runs in four innings. He struck out four and walked three before being lifted mid-inning in the fifth. Throughout his career, Davis has been more effective against righties. This should help him out considering the Cubs are almost completely right handed. The wind sounds like it is blowing out to right field today, so it shouldn't effect Davis too much. The main way of success for Davis is going to be to keep his walks down. Games can get really ugly for pitchers in Wrigley Field's hitter friendly dimensions. As always, solo home runs won't kill you; three run shots will.

Dempster struck out nine, while walking just two Braves in his first start of the season last Wednesday. He ended up getting a no decision after John Grabow surrendered the lead in the eighth. Dempster has been incredible since converting to a starter. Over the past two seasons, Dempster has started 65 games. In that streach, his ERA stands around 3.20. He has consistently ranked near the top in strikeouts since the conversion. Couple that with a relatively low walk rate and one could see why Dempster could be put in talks with some of the better pitchers in baseball.

Advantage: Cubs

Wednesday: Dave Bush (0-0, 4.76) vs. Randy Wells (1-0, 0.00)

Bush looked great in his first start of the season on Friday night. He struck out six Cardinals, while walking just two in 5.2 innings. He was one pitch away from getting through six before Matt Holliday connected for a two-run home run and Bush was immediately pulled. The hook seemed rather quick considering how well Bush was pitching, but the Brewers bullpen held the lead until the ninth. That's when Nick Stavinoha connected off Trevor Hoffman for a game winning homer, costing Bush the win the process. Regardless, there was a lot to be excited about the way Bush threw the ball on Friday.

Wells is a pitcher I really don't understand. His stuff doesn't blow you away. His numbers don't blow you away. But somehow, Wells figures out a way. Take his last start for example. He pitched six scoreless innings in a win over the Atlanta Braves. In that outing, he walked two batters and struck out just one. Where Wells is effective is with his control. He walked just 46 batters last season in 165.1 innings. That has helped combat his rather low strikeout rate. Despite Wells' success against the Brewers, I'm giving the edge to the Brewers in this one.

Advantage: Brewers

Thursday: Jeff Suppan (0-0, -) vs. Carlos Zambrano (1-1, 11.88)

Sigh. What else can you say? Jeff Suppan has been named the fifth starter for the time being despite being the worst option. This contract just continues to hurt the Brewers. Manager Ken Macha said the decision wasn't financially motivated, but the what was it? It surely wasn't talent motivated. Suppan was terrible each of the last two seasons. He was terrible in spring training. He was bad in his rehab start. Tell me how else can they justify this decision? Hopefully he somehow pitches alright, but the odds are not in the Brewers favor.

Zambrano was rocked on opening day to the tune of eight runs in 1.1 innings. He followed that up with a solid outing against the Reds. Zambrano struck out nine in seven innings, while walking three. He gave up three runs and got the win. Zambrano has struggled with his control of late, but the Cubs are surely favored in this one.

Advantage: Cubs

Series Wrapup: Cardinals

2010-04-11T22:05:00.000-07:00

STL 5 MIL 4
STL 7 MIL 1
MIL 8 STL 7

Cardinals win series 2-1

What else can you really say about this series? In all honesty, the Brewers should have won the series. Anytime you are able to get the ball to Trevor Hoffman with a lead, you take your chances. It just so happened in this series, Hoffman didn't show up. He blew two saves and cost the Brewers a win on Friday night. Although everyone in Milwaukee will tell you different, Trevor Hoffman's career isn't over.

One of the best things about opening week to me is the added value put on it. If somebody hits .400 in the first couple of games, they are an MVP candidate. If somebody doesn't get a hit (i.e. Gregg Zaun), they are bad. It's pretty comical, but that's the way it is.

Milwaukee's newest example is Trevor Hoffman. Against what many will tell you, Trevor Hoffman doesn't suck. He is simply a pitcher struggling with control right now. If there's one thing Hoffman can't lose, it's control. I guess that's the story for anyone who's fastball tops out in the mid-80's. One thing people need to understand is that Hoffman has always been a soft-tossing righty with a deadly changeup. I understand Hoffman is lighting up radar guns this year, but he never did. I didn't hear anyone complain last year when he was throwing at the exact same velocity.

I know I'm in the minority in this thinking, but Hoffman will be fine. Trust me, by June we will all be laughing about this.

However, there are some more alarming things going on with this club.

Jim Edmonds

When the Milwaukee Brewers signed Jim Edmonds, I wasn't really blown away. I understood what we were getting: a player at the tail end of his career who could be a nice option off the bench. I guess Ken Macha wasn't in the same mindset. Edmonds has started four games in the first week of the season. Making matters worse, Edmonds has already batted against a lefty on three separate occasions (he's 0-3). There is no excuse for Edmonds starting over Corey Hart on a regular basis. Furthermore, there is no reason Edmonds should ever bat against a lefty.

On Sunday night, Ken Macha did what I was fearing and started Edmonds in CF. At this point in his career, Edmonds really doesn't belong playing defense anywhere in the outfield. Putting Edmonds in a corner outfield spot is troubling, but starting him in CF is inexcusable. He doesn't have anywhere near the range needed to play out there. Sure he was a great defender in his day, but his days have past. He is no more than a bench player now.

Carlos Gomez

I told myself I was going to refrain from jumping on Gomez to quickly, but that was before his most recent slump. After going 4-5 with a homer on opening day, Gomez has just one hit in his last 16 at bats. He is yet to draw a walk on the season and is showing no plate discipline. On Saturday, I watched him foul numerous balls off his foot as he chased slider after slider in the dirt. I know the Brewers were trying to teach him to reach base, but batting him second isn't a place to learn.

The Brewers have a solid CF sitting on the bench in Jody Gerut. I understand by making the Gomez trade, they were going to play him, but why everyday? If he's not producing, he should play. Learning and maturing should happen in the minor leagues, not at the top of a major league lineup. He hasn't shown any ability to get on base in his career. Why is that suddenly going to change in Milwaukee? If you are going to play him, at least run a platoon with Gerut playing against righties.

Bullpen Management

My biggest beef with Ken Macha in his time as manager of the Brewers is the way he handles the bullpen. Throwing relievers for multiple innings and just about everyday is the perfect way to run a bullpen into the ground (i.e. 2009). He has learned nothing from last year. LaTroy Hawking was unnecessarily used again on Sunday when Carlos Villanueva was pulled with two out in the eigth. Villanueva was clearly pitching well enough to finish the inning, but was pulled so Hawkins could make his fourth appearance in the last five games.

Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart

It's nice to see Weeks and Hart getting off to a nice start. Through the first week of the season, Weeks is batting .368 with two home runs and six walks. Combine that with his two HBP's and you're looking at a .556 OBP. I know it's early, but Weeks looks primed for a huge season. He's hitting the ball as hard as I've ever seen him and playing a very solid second base.

Hart is also back to hitting the ball with authority. The main thing now will be consistency. I think that starts with his playing time. It's hard to get in a groove if you're sitting the bench three days a week. Hart had four hits in seven at bats in the Cardinals series and a home run. The ball is jumping off his bat. It will be interesting to see if he can continue his momentum in Chicago.

Series Preview: Cardinals

2010-04-09T08:09:00.000-07:00

Friday: Kyle Lohse (0-0, -) vs. Dave Bush (0-0, -)

Advantage: Brewers

Since coming over to the Cardinals, Lohse has pitched effectively. In his two seasons in St. Louis, his K:BB ratio is better than 2:1. While Lohse is not an overpower, strikeout pitcher, he has been able to keep his walks down. In his Cardinal tenure, he has thrown 337.2 innings and walked just 85 batters. That equates to a 2.26 BB/9. If there is one thing Dave Duncan has been able to do, it's teach control.

Anyone who reads this blog know how big a fan of Dave Bush I am. Now that Bush's injury plagued 2009 is in the past, I am expecting a big season. When on his game, Bush can be one of the better pitchers in the National League. The main thing to look for in tonight's start is the home run ball. Over the past two seasons, Bush surrendered an astonishing 1.5 HR/9. The Cardinals feature a tough 3-4 duo in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Both are capable of feeding off Bush's longball troubles. If he is able to keep the ball in the park, the Brewers should have the advantage.

Saturday: Chris Carpenter (1-0, 3.00) vs. Yovani Gallardo (0-1, 3.86)

Advantage: Cardinals

Carpenter was back at in on Opening Day against the Reds. He pitched a very impressive six innings in Cincinnati, striking out three and not walking a batter. It's that kind of control that lead to his 2009 NL Cy Young award. What makes Carpenter such a good pitcher is not only his K and BB. He is also incredible at keeping the ball on the ground. Last season he post a near 2:1 groundball to flyball ratio. He is arguably the best pitcher in the National League.

On Monday, Gallardo surely didn't have his best stuff. However, Gallardo was able to pitch a pretty good game. He allowed four runs (three earned), over seven innings of work. He walked just two, despite battling with his command all day and was able to fan five batters. When Yo is on his game, he can pitch with the best. This will be his first start since signing a 5-year extension yesterday. Runs should be tough to come by in this one, but with the way Carpenter pitched last season, I'm giving the edge to the Cardinals by the slightest margin. Hopefully we get a repeat of last season's 1-0 win with the same starters.

Sunday: Jaime Garcia (0-0, -) vs. Randy Wolf (1-0, 5.40)

Advantage: Brewers

This is a huge break for the Brewers. Manager Tony La Russa is pushing back Adam Wainwright so he can start opening day in St. Louis, so Garcia gets the nod. He will be making his first appearance in the majors since 2008 and just his second big league start. Garcia shouldn't be taken lightly however. He has shown decent control and strikeout numbers throughout the minors. Even though, Brewers fans should be thanking La Russa for this one.

Wolf is the pitcher I am most looking forward to this weekend. I was there on Tuesday and was very impressed with what I saw. Wolf fanned eight batters without surrendering a walk over 6.2 innings. Sure he gave up four runs, but his command was hopefully a sign of things to come. If he pitches anything like he did on Tuesday, the Brewers should be able to win the final game of the series.

Wrap

On paper, this looks like a very winnable series for the Brewers. Clearly, the Cardinals are the favorite to win the NL Central, so it's important to win these games at home. So much emphasis is put on late season meetings, but these games are just as important.

Series Recap: Rockies

2010-04-07T20:48:00.000-07:00

After a disappointing Opening Day, the Milwaukee Brewers responded by taking the final two games against the Rockies. For this team to succeed, winning at home is a must. Winning the first series of the season was a good start.

The Good

Bullpen

9.1 IP, 7 hits, 2 R (2 ER), 8 K, 3 BB (2 Intentional), 1.93 ERA

The most encouraging thing about this series was how solidly the bullpen pitched. One strength of this club is how tough they will be at the end of games. Watching LaTroy Hawkins' two spotless innings, with three punchouts was very nice to see.

The bullpen surrendered just one walk (the other two were IBB) in the whole series. Combine that with eight strikeouts and winning close games becomes much easier. Plus, I have to admit, listening to hells bells is very fun.

Randy Wolf

Randy Wolf's start on Tuesday night is one reason the term "quality start" is flawed. While Wolf didn't qualify for this, he was very impressive. Over 6.2 innings, Wolf struck out eight Rockies. Even better, Wolf didn't surrender a walk. Of his 97 pitches, 72 were for strikes. If there is one thing I like in a pitcher, pounding the strike zone is it. Sure he gave up four runs, but that's just unlucky. If Wolf keeps putting up starts like he did on Tuesday, the runs against him will be few and far between.

Rickie Weeks

Sure he struck out three times on Wednesday, but Rickie looked good offensively and defensively all series long. Here are his three game logs.

Monday: 1-3, Single, BB, HBP, R

Tuesday: 1-2, HR, RBI, 2 BB, SB, 2 R

Wednesday: 1-4, Single, RBI, 3 K

The most encouraging thing to see was his patience. Weeks was able to get on base seven times vs the Rockies. Better yet, he was able to work the pitcher everytime up. On six different occations, Weeks saw six or more pitches in an at bat. Sure he struck out three times on Wednesday, but he still worked the pitcher to a full count in two of those at bats. Very encouraging things from Rickie.

Casey McGehee

The Brewers success this season hinges greatly on the success of McGehee. I still think Mat Gamel should see frequent playing time when he returns from injury, but McGehee's start to the season was very nice. All in all, McGehee went 5-11, including a three-run home run.

The Not-So-Good

Doug Davis

Davis' first start back in Milwaukee was one to forget. By Davis' 30th pitch on Wednesday, he had already... faced five batters, walked three, allowed two runs and the bases were still loaded. His line after the first five batters...

0 IP, 2 Hits, 3 R (3 ER), 0 K, 3 BB

His line after the first five batters...

4 IP, 4 Hits, 1 R (1 ER), 4 K, 0 BB

That was one of the reasons I was so confused why Macha pulled him after a leadoff double in the 5th. He was only at 88 pitches and could have easily finished the inning. It's decisions like that that have run the Brewers into the ground last year. Instead of finishing the inning, Macha went to Todd Coffey for two innings. Watch more multiple innings from the Brewers relief. It was one of the reasons why the Brewers faultered last season.

Catchers

Brewers' backstops went a combined 0-11 in the series at the plate. George Kottaras got the start Wednesday and drove in two runs, but looked terrible in the field. Not one, not two, but five times balls went to the backstop with Kottaras catching. Sure the pitches weren't the best, but they looked like balls that need to be blocked. I am positive Zaun will rebound from his 0-8 start, but

Joshua Sacco

2010-04-07T20:29:00.000-07:00

I'll be posting a series review for the Rockies later tonight. In the meantime, here is a video a friend passed along to me. I think you'll enjoy it. Just click the video link below.

VIDEO

Baseball: A Game of Numbers

2010-04-05T18:36:00.000-07:00

Before I start this post, I want to address the early success of Carlos Gomez in the first game of the season.

Gomez looked very good today going 4-5 with a HR, double and a pair of singles. Take this performance for what it is... a very good game. The key there is this was one game. As I was driving home from the game, I heard multiple callers refer to Gomez' superstar potential. I hope I am wrong, but there is little in Gomez' young career to suggest this. Five at-bats should not, and will not make up for three disappointing seasons.

The same can be said for Alcides Escobar who went hitless in four at-bats. It's one game. Sure it would have been nice for an equally impressive game as Gomez, but going hitless means little to change my thoughts on Alcides. With that being said, let's move onto my thoughts of today's game.

The main question on many Brewer fans' minds in the past week was who would start in RF. That question was answered when Jim Edmonds was penciled in on Monday. I didn't have a huge problem with this, but I would've liked to see Corey Hart get the start. My main problem with the decision came later in the game.

In the bottom of the seventh, the Brewers had runners on first and second with two outs. Randy Flores, a left handed pitcher was on the mound for the Rockies. Instead of calling back Jim Edmonds, Ken Macha allowed Edmonds to bat for himself. Words could not express my frustration with this decision. This was my main concern with letting Edmonds start this season. Sure he can destroy RHP, but he is absolutely lost against southpaws.

Over the past three seasons, Edmonds has posted OPS' of .441, .631 and .479 against LHP. Those numbers are beyond bad. In his career, Hart has produced much better against LHP. His career OPS' against LHP is .844. Nevertheless, Edmonds remained in the game and walked after a couple of bad swings. Casey McGehee followed Edmonds walk with an inning ending popup.

I guess there was no harm no foul here, but the same situation came up again in the ninth. Edmonds was again left in against a lefty and hit a soft liner to second to end the game. My question is how can Corey Hart be left on the bench in both situations? Baseball is a game of numbers. The job of a manager is to give his team the best chance to win based on those numbers. Leaving Hart on the bench in both scoring chances is absolutely inexcusable.

'10 Season Preview: Outfielders

2010-04-04T18:19:00.001-07:00

Last year started with the thought of a Milwaukee Brewers outfield hitting a combined 90 home runs. While Ryan Braun and Mike Cameron flourished, Corey Hart posted another disappointing season.

Exit Mike Cameron and enter Carlos Gomez.

Gomez was acquired in an offseason trade with the Minnesota Twins. While he is an amazing defender, his production with the bat is a huge dropoff from that of Cameron. Also coming in was veteran Jim Edmonds, providing an additional option off the bench.

Let's take a look at the outfielders.

Ryan Braun

In the first two seasons in his career, Braun walked just over 6% of the time. It was easy to overlook Braun's low walk totals because his high batting averages compensated.

Braun's 2009 was just what Braun needed to be put in the conversation with the leagues elite hitters. Braun showed much more discipline at the plate, walking 8.1% of the time. Combining that with a .320 batting average, Braun was able to post a .386 OBP. Sure he could walk more, but he is on the right path.

With more patience developing, there is no reason to think he can't equal his 2009 numbers where he was a near 5.0 WAR player.

Corey Hart

Frustrations with Corey Hart have officially reached a boiling point. Currently rumors are circulating that Hart may be traded to Washington to make room for free agent Jermaine Dye. This would be a huge mistake.

It's very tough to remember, but Hart was a 4.8 WAR player just two years ago. Sure 2008 was very disappointing, but 2009 did have some positives. While Hart looked completely lost in the second half of 2008, he regained his patience in 2009. His walk rate was a very solid 9.1%.

The main concern with Hart is his diminishing power numbers. Hart posted just a .158 ISO (slug%-batting average). An everyday outfielder needs to post better power numbers than that.

So in short, Hart's 2009 leads me to think he could be the best option in the two hole. The Brewers need hitter who can get on base in front of Braun and Fielder. Until he is able to show better power numbers, Hart is best in that spot.

Carlos Gomez

Well, where to begin?

My frustrations with the J.J. Hardy trade have been well documented. Nevertheless, Carlos Gomez is the starting CF for the Milwaukee Brewers. His defense will provide some help in CF, but how bad will his bat bring down this team?

Much of that responsibility lies in the lineup card of Ken Macha. If Carlos Gomez is hitting in the two hole, the Brewers offense is severly impacted. His inability to walk is something that you can't have in front of Braun/Fielder. In his career, Carlos Gomez has never posted an OBP over .300. That's beyond awful for an everyday player. It becomes even worse when he is getting the amount of at bats associated with two-hole hitters.

The main excuse for slotting Gomez here is his speed. What value does Gomez really bring with his feet? On defense a lot. On offense... not much. Over the past two years, Gomez stole 47 bases in Minnesota. Problem is he was also caught 18 times. That equates to a 72.3% success rate. To even begin considering risking a steal, a player should be successful more than 77% of the time. In his time in Minnesota, Gomez' stolen base attempts cost the Twins runs. Sure his speed "puts pressure on the defense," but pressure can easily be releaved by throwing him out, which happens more than 27% of the time.

I do expect his numbers to improve a little bit, but no where near the point of a two hitter. Before a player is given that responsibility, he needs to develop an eye at the plate. As the saying goes, you can't steal first base.

Jim Edmonds and Jody Gerut

These are two players coming off the bench who can be very productive.

While he used to be a very good defender, Edmonds has slowed and simply can't cover the ground needed to play everyday. Also, Edmonds cannot hit southpaws. Even with those shortcomings, Edmonds can still be very productive. He crushes righties. If he is used strictly in that fashion, Edmonds will fit in perfectly in Milwaukee. Even though Corey Hart has struggled mightily, Edmonds can't be an everyday player at this point in his career. At the most, Edmonds should see around 200-250 at bats.

The Brewers best option to start in CF is Jody Gerut. After being traded to Milwaukee, Gerut struggled while seeing little playing time. As his playing time increased, so did his production. Gerut has shown the ability to get on base throughout his career, as well as hitting for power. If he was starting, he is the perfect two-hole hitter. Although he is not as good a defender as Gomez, Gerut is no slouch in the field. He has posted very good UZR's throughout his career. If Gomez struggles to start the season, the key will be how long Ken Macha waits to give responsibility to Gerut.

'10 Season Preview: Infielders

2010-04-04T18:15:00.000-07:00

If there is a more interesting part of the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers team than their infield, I haven’t found it yet. There are so many unanswered questions regarding these positions. Taking an around the horn approach, we’ll start at first base.

First base: Can Prince Fielder challenge his club records from 2009? This is the only part of the diamond that appears to be rock solid. With all of the questions Fielder has had to answer the past couple of years (i.e. weight, defense, etc.), he’s done nothing but excel.

It would be unfair to expect another repeat of his 2009. Anytime someone posts a 1.000 plus OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) and draws 110 walks, you’re in pretty elite company. Fielder absolutely flourished last year and left fans with little to question regarding his ability.

Second Base: What can Rickie Weeks bring? Weeks was off to an incredible start in 2009 before he was injured for the remainder of the season with a tear in his wrist. Anytime wrist injuries occur, it can be very scary for a hitter. In all honesty, it’s really tough to know what the Brewers have in Weeks. Sure, he possesses a great eye at the plate, but his bat could lose some of its speed.

Regardless of the injury, the most important thing to remember about Weeks is his ability to get on base. After the Brewers parted ways with Mike Cameron, this is a huge asset the team was lacking. Should Weeks rebound well from the injury, the Brewers have one of the premier second baseman in the game today.

Shortstop: Can Alcides Escobar take the reigns? It’s been talked about too frequently. Too many comparisons have been made with J.J. Hardy. Hardy is gone. The burden now rests squarely on the slender shoulders of the 23-year-old.

When I first heard Escobar would be batting in the nine hole, I was surprised and impressed. I really like the thought process behind this. Escobar likes to hit the ball on the ground (56 percent of the time in 2009). Having him hit behind the pitcher allows for him to utilize his speed rather than ground into force outs. Also, those groundballs could also find holes and score some runners who have been moved up via the bunt.

One of the main reasons I like it is it really takes the pressure off Escobar. It’s tough to think Escobar can hit second everyday. It would’ve put him in a very difficult situation. Hitting atop the Brewers order comes with a lot of responsibility. That’s not the place for a young shortstop still developing his offensive game.

Third base: I don’t know is on third? Pun intended. The Brewers have a very tough choice on who starts the hot corner this season. Based on 2009, Casey McGehee is the clear-cut option for Milwaukee. He exceeded all expectations and even garnered some interest in the Rookie of the Year campaign.

Although McGehee was brilliant in 2009, the jury is still out on him. He really never was great in the minor leagues. Good maybe, but not great. His .859 OPS literally came out of nowhere. It was his first .800 plus OPS in his professional career (including minors). Based on history alone, some regression is going to be expected.

The other option is of course Mat Gamel. Gamel struggles defensively, but could provide some much needed offense with the bat. But that all hinges on him being used correctly. Gamel is a rare instance of a lefty who kills southpaws. Problem was, in 2009 he faced mainly RHP. If used correctly, Gamel could be a much-needed piece in Milwaukee’s arsenal.

My biggest fear is the Brewers using a platoon at third. For some reason, I don’t think Ken Macha has figured out Gamel’s ability against lefties. If he is used against right-handed pitchers, it could be a huge mistake.

It’s going to be fun to watch these stories play out. Other than Fielder, there are so many questions that need to be answered. If they are answered in the Brewers favor, they could close the gap in talent between them and the Cardinals.

'10 Season Preview: RP

2010-04-01T11:25:00.000-07:00

While starting pitching was definitely a problem last season, relievers had their fair share of problems too.

At the beginning of the season, the bullpen was simply untouchable. Aided by the emergence of Trevor Hoffman on April 27th, the Brewers bullpen started an incredible run. With contributions from Mitch Stetter, Todd Coffey and Mark DiFelice, the Brewers bullpen was rolling on all cylinders.

And then, it suddenly all stopped.

As the Brewers starting staff was leveled with injuries and inconsistency, the bullpen’s workload increased. Short starts became more of the norm and the bullpen was expected to pitch multiple innings every night. Needless to say, this can take its toll on a bullpen.

The ‘pen went onto finish the year with a 3.97 ERA, ranking 16th out of 30 in MLB. All said, they finished pretty respectable, but their near 5.00 ERA after the all-star break really took away a special season.

Well, the faces have again changed for this part of the team (are you starting to see a pattern?). Gone from last year’s team are Mark DiFelice (injury-out for season,), Seth McClung (released) and David Weathers (released).

To help replace the loss of DiFelice, the Brewers sought help from an inter-divisional foe. On December 9th, just days after the DiFelice news, the Brewers signed LaTroy Hawkins to a two year deal totaling $7.5 million.

Hawkins, 37, pitched very effectively the last year and a half to resurrect his career in Houston. During that span, Hawkins posted a miniscule 1.71 ERA in 84.1 innings. The reason for his sudden success was his ability to throw strikes. In those innings, Hawkins walked just 21 batters, while striking out 70.

Hawkins biggest asset will be where he pitches. Seeing as Todd Coffey will be returning as the setup man, Hawkins will now be the likely 7th inning guy. The combination of Hawkins/Coffey/Hoffman immediately jumps the Brewers to having one of the toughest back ends of the bullpen in baseball.

Another very important new feature this season is the availability the Brewers have with their long relief. With the signings of Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, the Brewers now have two starters who will be relegated to the bullpen. Whether those starters are effective remains to be seen, but they can provide more innings in mop up games where the Brewers had to pitch important relief pitchers a year ago.

Anyway, here is the Brewers offseason regarding relief this offseason. Again, I’ll be looking at the stat WAR (wins above replacement level) for this.

Additions

LaTroy Hawkins: 0.3

Departures

Mark DiFelice: 0.4
Seth McClung: -1.0
David Weathers: -0.8

All said, the Brewers literally won with addition by subtraction. Dropping McClung and Weathers gives another 1.8 WAR they were subtracting based on their ’09 season. The Brewers were really dealt a blow with the loss of DiFelice, but the Hawkins signing helps.

The bullpen becomes key this season. Seeing as the St. Louis Cardinals are the clear favorite to repeat next season, having a strong bullpen is needed for the Brewers. I really expect a good season considering the bullpen shouldn’t have to log so many innings. It really does all start with starting pitching. If they are able to go deeper into games, the bullpen is a direct benefit.

'10 Season Preview: SP

2010-03-21T23:02:00.000-07:00

Over the next couple of posts, I will be previewing the Milwaukee Brewers 2010 roster. I will break this up into four different segments: starting pitchers, relievers, infielders and outfielders.

For this club, there is no better way to begin than with starting pitching. Just a season ago, Milwaukee Brewers starters posted a 5.37 ERA, finishing for a tie for dead last in MLB. They tied with the Baltimore Orioles, who have to deal with the DH and play in the hitter packed AL East. The Brewers on average gave up more than a full run higher than the national league average per game (4.32). Needless to say, starting pitching was a big reason the Brewers won just 80 games last season.

Quickly, the front office made it apparent starting pitching would be their main goal of the offseason. An early trade sent J.J. Hardy to Minnesota and landed Mike Cameron’s replacement: Carlos Gomez. With the Hardy trade, the Brewers gained financial flexibility for their starting pitching problem. I’m not going to say I agreed with the trade, but that’s for another article.

With the money now open, enter Randy Wolf and Doug Davis. The Brewers signed the two lefties to stabilize a rotation who logged just 891 innings last season, which ranked 29th in MLB. If there is one thing Wolf and Davis have shown, it is durability. Both pitchers threw over 200 innings last season. The Brewers leader in innings last season was Braden Looper, throwing a very uninspiring 194.2.

The Brewers are gaining a nice bit of depth with these acquisitions. With Davis and Wolf, the Brewers now have seven pitchers who are capable of starting: Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan and Chris Narveson. Assuming the first four spots go to Gallardo, Wolf, Davis and Parra, there is only one spot for the final three. I’ve heard a lot of people say that Suppan is now out of the rotation. While I would love that to be the case, it isn’t. I’m just not sure the Brewers are ready to cut ties with Suppan, while still paying him $12.5 million in the final year of his contract.

One big thing to watch is Dave Bush. I have always been a fan of Bush and think he could have a bounce back 2010, but the Brewers need to make a decision on him. Considering they’re already near, if not over their budget, the club could trade Bush for salary reasons. He is due $4+ million salary in 2010. While I really hope the club is not considering this, I fear they may be.

Anyway, as the rotation shapes up now, the Brewers look much better than a year ago. Combined between Wolf and Davis’ ’09 seasons, the Brewers have gained 7.5 WAR (wins above replacement level) this offseason. That total could only grow if the Brewers do the right thing and relegate Jeff Suppan to the bullben, or flat out release him. Regardless of what a player is being played, statistics should determine their playing. It’s time for the Brewers to admit their mistake and move on. Sure the Jeff Suppan contract is horrible, but they are only making matters worse by giving him an opportunity to start 30+ games next season. Based on talent alone, Suppan is worse candidate out of the seven.

Looking at the starting rotation alone, the Brewers have improved this offseason. Adding Wolf and Davis will provide stability to a staff that had anything but last season. The only question is did the upgrade hurt other areas of the club more than it helped the rotation?

Website Problems...

2010-03-20T22:30:00.000-07:00

Dear Readers,

I've been having some problems for the last couple of weeks with the website. I have contacted Blogspot and the website should be working sometime in the next 24 hours. Sorry for the delay. I will be posting frequently again.

-Jon

The Battle to Round out the Rotation

2010-02-14T14:27:00.000-08:00

Sure the Randy Wolf and Doug Davis signings improved the Brewers' staff, but it also confused the picture on who will round out the rotation. The Brewers currently have seven different options for a five-man pitching. With Wolf, Davis, Gallardo and Manny Parra likely locked into the first four spots, the final spot is up for grabs.

The three options for this spot are: Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush and Chris Narverson.

Jeff Suppan

Let's face it, the Brewers haven't gotten much back on their 4yr/$42 million investment they made on Suppan. In his first three years as a Brewer, Suppan has posted these lines.

2007: 34 GS, 206.2 IP, 12 W, 12 L, 4.62 ERA, 114 K, 68 BB, 4.42 FIP

2008: 31 GS, 177.2 IP, 10 W, 10 L, 4.96 ERA, 90 K, 67 BB, 5.51 FIP

2009: 30 GS, 161.2 IP, 7 W, 12 L, 5.29 ERA, 80 K, 74 BB, 5.70 FIP

While he pitched decently in 2007, Suppan has struggled mightily in each of the past two seasons. After posting a 2.5 WAR in 2007, over the last two years, Suppan has combined for a -0.9 WAR. As you can see, he has posted back-to-back 5.50+ FIPs.

What's even more alarming for me are his K/BB totals. He has seen them consistently fall over the past three seasons. This season, his K:BB ratio was just north of one. Those are not the numbers of a major league starter.

Dave Bush

There is nothing that really dazzles fans when looking at Bush. His fastball tops out in the high 80's. His curveball loops in around the high 60's. To say it bluntly, Dave Bush doesn't have overwhelming stuff. The one thing Bush does posses is control. Problem is, sometimes that control gets him in trouble.

In his first couple of years in Milwaukee, Bush maintained a solid GB/FB rate. However, in 2008 and 2009, the number of fly balls Bush allowed increased significantly. In those seasons, Bush allowed fly balls 43% of the time. This has directly lead to Bush's biggest problem: home runs.

Bush has thrown just shy of 300 innings in the past two years. In that same time frame, Bush has allowed 48 home runs. That equates to a very high 1.44 gopher balls in every nine innings he pitches.

If Bush is going to be successful, he needs to limit the number of fly balls he surrenders. From 2008-2009, when a batter hit a ball into the air against Bush, it left the ballpark 12% of the time. That is right in line with the league average. The solution to Bush's problem is simple: keep the ball on the ground. If the ball isn't hit into the air, it can't leave the ballpark.

Bush still remains a good option for the Brewers in 2010. While he did post an incredibly high 6.38 ERA last season, he continues to post a promising K:BB rate. There is little doubt in my mind that Bush could easily post an ERA in the mid to low-4's. He has great control and has pitched effectively before. The key is have that fly ball rate drop from 45% to 35%. If he's able to do that, he could have a lot of success.

Chris Narveson

For the breakdown on Narveson, here's a link to an article I had on him earlier this offseason.

Closing Thoughts

This will be the number one thing I will be watching in spring training. The Brewers have already made it clear that retaining Bush is not a certainty. The Brewers are already at, or over their budget for next season. Bush's $4+ million salary doesn't become guaranteed until the start of the season. If he is released in spring training, the Brewers are only on the hook for 1/6 of his contract.

This makes Bush's start in spring that much more important. Bush is the Brewers best option to round out the rotation. Cutting him to save a $3 million just doesn't make sense. This team was devastated last season by injuries. If anything, depth in the starting rotation should be the #1 thing on Doug Melvin's mind.

With Suppan, the Brewers need to just cut the cord. Sure his contract was a huge mistake, but the Brewers are only making matters worse by continuing to let him pitch. He simply doesn't have anything left. I've always said that's one thing that makes larger market teams so good. When a player doesn't work out, he doesn't play. Would this even be a discussion if the Brewers were not on the hook for $12.5 million next season? Talent should dictate playing time, not salaries.

The Cardinals are the clear cut favorite to repeat next season. However, that isn't to say the Brewers have no shot. Mistakes need to be limited to close the gap. Releasing Dave Bush and starting Jeff Suppan just based on his contract would be two blows that could prove fatal for the Brewers playoff chances.

Forgotten Felipe

2010-02-06T11:57:00.001-08:00

As the weeks pass and the offseason comes to a close, I'm left wondering why Felipe Lopez is still a free agent.

After posting an impressive second half in 2008 as a Cardinal, Lopez was signed to a one year, $3.5 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Over the first half of the season, Lopez continued his 2008 success. In 383 at bats in Arizona, Lopez posted a .301/.364/.412/.776 line, generating a 2.0 WAR in the process.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers were searching for a second baseman after an early injury to Rickie Weeks. Lopez was traded midseason to Milwaukee in exchange for minor leaguers Cole Gillespie and Roque Mercedes. As a Brewer, Lopez racked up 297 at bats and posted a ridiculous .320/.407/.448/.855 line.

While Lopez exceeded expectations in Milwaukee, he was not offered arbitration for fear he might accept. I was very quick to criticize this move considering Lopez was a type B free agent and could have landed Milwaukee a sandwich pick between the first and second round of the 2010 amateur draft. Considering Lopez would get around $4 million in arbitration, I figured that number would easily get surpassed in the free agent waters. Seriously, who would not want Lopez' services? He had an incredible 2009 with the bat and glove. Here's a quick look at 2009 numbers while playing for both teams.

At Bats: 680
Batting Average: .310
On-Base Percentage: .383
Slugging Percentage: .427
OPS: .810
OPS+: 111
UZR/150: 7.6

All that adds up to is a 4.6 WAR season. Let me repeat that; Lopez' 2009 WAR was 4.6. Despite that incredible season, Lopez still remains a free agent gathering very little buzz. In fact, one could argue the Brewers made the right decision by not offering Lopez arbitration considering the lack of interest he's generated this offseason. I would argue $4 million is a pretty good bargain for a 4.6 WAR player, but the Brewers don't have money, or a spot for Lopez to play everyday.

Nevertheless, it still shocks me what has happened thus far. Lopez could very easily regress back into his old form, but I still thought he would receive a healthy deal this winter. Second baseman who can hit and field are tough to come by. The Philadelphia Phillies confirmed this by signing Placido Polanco to a 3yr/$18 million deal earlier this offseason. Taking a look at 2009, Lopez outproduced Polanco in most offensive categories and was comparable defensively. I'm not saying Lopez is a better player than Polanco, but based off 2009 he was.

We are at a time in baseball where bargains can be found in free agency. As big names sign early, teams usually overpay for their talent. Sure lesser names like Ryan Garko can be had for cheap, but I really didn't expect this to happen to Felipe Lopez. For how good he played last season, his phone should be ringing off the hook. Whoever signs Lopez will be getting a great bargain. I don't think he will reproduce another 4.6 WAR season, but expecting a 3.0 WAR is not out of the question.

Central Regression

2010-01-29T12:03:00.000-08:00

Coming into the 2010 season, the Milwaukee Brewers return with similar talent. Sure the names and faces have changed, but it's a good debate if this team has actually improved. Even with some holes on their roster, the Brewers could still make the playoffs in 2010. Arguably all of the top tier teams in the NL Central have gotten worse this offseason. I know it's said frequently, but this division is up for grabs.

After each team profile, I will post the projected record of each team based on the newly released projected standings on baseballprospectus.com. Each players WAR (Wins above replacement level) for the 2009 season are posted in the parentheses.

Chicago Cubs

Additions- Marlon Byrd (2.4), Xavier Nady (-0.1), Chad Tracy (-0.6) and Carlos Silva (-0.1)

Total WAR 1.6

Departures- Milton Bradley (1.0), Jake Fox (-0.1), Aaron Miles (-1.3), Aaron Heilman (0.2), Rich Harden (1.8), Reed Johnson (0.4), Kevin Gregg (-0.3)

Total WAR 1.7

While their WAR +/- is only a -0.1, the Cubs talent level has severely dropped this offseason. Although Milton Bradley is a troubled player, he is also very talented. Trading him for Carlos Silva made no sense at all. Not only is that a huge downgrade in talent, but the Cubs already had a better option for the rotation in 2010. If Silva pitches over Tom Gorzelanny next season, the Cubs might have made one of the worst trades in recent history.

BP record projection: 77-85

St. Louis Cardinals

Additions- Brad Penny (2.5) and Rich Hill (0.4)

Total WAR 2.9

Departures- Brad Thompson (0), Rick Ankiel (0.1), Troy Glaus (-0.2), Mark Derosa (1.7), Khalil Greene (-0.8), Joel Pineiro (4.8), John Smoltz (1.1) and Todd Wellemeyer (-0.3)

Total WAR 6.4

While I did like the Penny and Hill additions, I still think the Cardinals should have retained Pineiro and Smoltz. Too much emphasis what put on locking up Matt Holliday. Losing a 4.8 WAR player like Joel Pineiro is a huge blow to this team. If Smoltz is not retained, the Cardinals rotation has taken a huge step back. Everybody points to the Matt Holliday trade for why the Cardinals ran away with the division last year, but what about the pitching? Having a starting rotation combine for 17 WAR is just incredible. Even with the losses, the Cardinals have to be the favorite to keep the division crown in 2010.

BP record projection: 89-73

Houston Astros

Additions- Brett Myers (-0.5), Cory Sullivan (0.1), Kevin Cash (0), Matt Lindstrom (0) and Brandon Lyon (0.7)

Total WAR 0.3

Departures- Jose Valverde (0.7), Miguel Tejada (2.6), LaTroy Hawkins (0.3), Mike Hampton (0.9) and Darin Erstad (-0.9)

Total WAR 3.6

No real explanation needed here. The Houston Astros are the Houston Astros. I am constantly questioning where this franchise is going. They spent 3yrs/$15 million on Brandon Lyon after a 0.7 WAR season. There's a short list of relievers who should garner that kind of money and Brandon Lyon's name is not on it. Ed Wade's transactions since taking over as GM have been really confusing. Maybe that's the reason he and Shawn Chacon don't see eye to eye.

Cincinnati Reds

Additions- Chris Burke (-0.2), Aroldis Chapman (-), Josh Anderson (-0.3) and Miguel Cairo (0.2)

Total WAR -0.3 (Obviously not including Chapman as he did not pitch in MLB in 2009)

Departures- Kip Wells (0.1), Jonny Gomes (0.6) and Edinson Volquez (0.3)

Total WAR 1.0

I really have no idea what to expect out of Aroldis Chapman. I guess the only certainty will be Dusty Baker logging unnecessary innings on his arm late in the year. Sure the Reds have some young talent coming back, but they just have too many holes. Anytime Willy Taveras gets playing time in CF, there's a problem.

BP record prjection: 82-80

Pittsburgh Pirates

Additions- Ryan Church (1.0), Jack Taschner (-0.2), Octavio Dotel (0.8), D.J. Carrasco (1.3), Brandon Jones (0), Brenden Donnelly (0.6), Vinnie Chulk (-0.2), Bobby Crosby (-0.7), Javier Lopez (-0.1), Akinori Iwamura (1.3) and Brian Bass (-0.3)

Total WAR 3.5

Departures- Matt Capps (-0.4), Brain Bixler (-0.1), Luis Cruz (-0.2), Phil Dumatrait (-0.7) and Jesse Chavez (-0.4)

Total WAR -1.8

I really liked a lot of the things Neal Huntington did this offseason. The Octavio Dotel signing (1yr/$3 mil) was one of the best in baseball this offseason. Also, by signing D.J. Carrasco and Brenden Donnelly, the Pirates can now use them as great trade bait for a team seeking bullpen help at the deadline. I also thought they got the better end of the Akinori Iwamura trade. However, the Matt Capps decision one of the worst moves of the offseason in baseball. Although Capps posted an unlucky 5.80 ERA in 2009, he is still one of the best relievers in baseball, and he's still only 26. In 2009, Capps struck out 46 batters, while walking 17. The Pirates easily should have considered 2009 a fluke. Capps' BABIP last season was a ridiculous .370. He was just one season removed from a 2008 campaign where he walked just five batters all year. Those are numbers teams would love at the back of their bullpen.

BaseballProspectus.com Projected 2010 Standings for the NL Central

St. Louis 89-73
Cincinnati 82-80
Chicago 77-85
Milwaukee 75-87
Houston 75-87
Pittsburgh 70-92

While these standing are interesting to look at, I don't see Milwaukee winning just 75 games in a weak NL Central next season. Check back soon, I'll have my 2010 NL Central breakdown posted.

Edmonds signs with Milwaukee

2010-01-28T12:48:00.000-08:00

Today, the Milwaukee Brewers signed Jim Edmonds to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. If Edmonds makes the club, he would be guaranteed $850,000, but could make upwards of $2 million in incentives.

I really have to admit, I didn't see this one coming. When the Brewers were mentioned as having interest in another outfielder, I was confused. The Brewers already have a capable backup who can play all three positions in Jody Gerut. With the Brewers being tied to names such as Ryan Freel, Reed Johnson, or Gabe Gross, I figured why spend money on a 5th outfielder. While I not questioning the ability of either Gross or Johnson (I am for Freel), it just didn't seem like a necessary expense. This is what is so perfect about the Edmonds signing.

By signing Jim Edmonds, the Brewers are not contractually obligated to pay him, or give him a roster spot. If Edmonds comes to spring training and struggles, the Brewers can just release him.

Edmonds did not play baseball in 2009, so it is tough to gauge what the Brewers can expect out of him. After a rough start to the 2008 season in San Diego, Edmonds was released and picked up by the Chicago Cubs. He then rebounded to post a .937 OPS in 250 at bats in Chicago.

Even with his productive stint in Chicago, Edmonds value to the Brewers is on the bench. He could provide a decent option if Corey Hart continues to struggle. Edmonds has completely dominated right handed pitching throughout his career. From 2000-2009, Edmonds posted OPS' over .880 against righties in every season but one (2007 -.775). In 2008, Edmonds posted a .883 against right handed pitching.

If Edmonds is capable of playing at his 2008 level, the Brewers need to be wary of where/when they use him. At this point in his career, Edmonds is not the player he once was. In earlier years, Edmonds could produce against lefties, but those days are gone. In his last three seasons, Edmonds has failed to produce an OPS above .650 against lefties (.479, .631, .441). On top of that, Edmonds' well documented defensive prowess is no longer one of his strong points. While playing CF in 2008, Edmonds racked up a -23.3 UZR/150 in 840 innings. Those are not the defensive numbers of a everyday outfielder, especially an everyday centerfielder.

One thing to watch after this signing is the bench for the Milwaukee Brewers. If Edmonds makes the team, the bench now becomes filled with lefties. Joining Edmonds would be Joe Inglett, Jody Gerut, Craig Counsell, Mat Gamel and whoever the Brewers decide to backup Gregg Zaun. While that is a very strong bench, a right handed option is still needed. Sure Mat Gamel can hit left handed pitching (Macha doesn't understand that), but the Brewers are really short on right handed hitters. I look for Adam Heether to make a run at the opening day roster. He would provide a right handed bat off the bench and can play just about anywhere in the field. Melvin mentioned one of the things he liked about Joe Inglett was his ability to play outfield. If Edmonds makes the club, Inglett's outfield abilities really become useless, which really opens the door for Heether. Inglett probably plays better defense than Heether around the board, but a righty is needed off the bench.

All in all, I really like this signing for the Brewers. Edmonds comes very cheap and could provide some value for the Brewers next season. With that being said, he needs to be used correctly. At this point in his career, Edmonds has no reason to step foot in center field. Also, Edmonds should not be allowed to bat against left handed pitching. The clear cut role for Edmonds would be to back up the corner outfielders. He provides a good option off the bench and could spot start if Corey Hart or Ryan Braun need a day off. Only time will tell if this pays off, but this has the potential to be a very good signing for the Brewers.

At WAR with the Milwaukee Brewers

2010-01-25T13:59:00.000-08:00

The Milwaukee Brewers are in one of the most important times in franchise history. Prince Fielder is just two seasons away from hitting free agency, which has turned the organization into a "win now" mindset. With the team looking for immediate help, the one way to accomplish this goal is to improve the team. While it has been a busy offseason in Milwaukee, whether the team is any better is up for debate.

One of the most important stats to look at when determining the value of a players is WAR. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement, which tracks a player's value to a team over a certain season to the production of a replacement level player. In a nut shell, replacement level is what an average AAA callup could produce if they are given everyday playing time in the major leagues.

Finish 80-82 last season was certainly not how the Milwaukee Brewers wanted to respond after their first playoff appearance in 26 years. Sure the departure of C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets hurt, but with one of the most potent offenses in baseball returning, the Brewers had a chance. The offense lived up to expectations all season. Combined in 2009, Milwaukee Brewers position players posted a 25.8 WAR (good for 2nd in the NL and 6th in MLB). Problem is, the pitching also lived up to what many feared. As a staff, Milwaukee Brewers' pitchers were just 3.0 WAR. For a reference point, that was good for last in all of baseball.

After the terrible pitching display shown all season in Milwaukee, it would only make sense the club labeled it their top priority this offseason. The Brewers went out and landed both Randy Wolf and Doug Davis to help limit the damage. With the Brewers being on a limited budget, to acquire these players, others had to go. Doug Melvin found his solution by trading J.J. Hardy to Minnesota in exchange for CF Carlos Gomez(saving the club around $4 million). With the addition of Gomez, the Brewers decided to not renew the contract of Mike Cameron (saving around $9 million). So basically, the starting pitching was address at the expense of two important positional players. Sure the pitching improved, but what about the team?

Looking at the additions/subtractions from this offseason, based on their 2009 season is alarming.

Additions- Randy Wolf (3.0), Gregg Zaun (1.8), Doug Davis (1.7), Carlos Gomez (0.7) and Latroy Hawkins (0.3)

TOTAL in 2009- 7.5 WAR

Subtractions- Felipe Lopez (4.6), Mike Cameron (4.3), J.J. Hardy (1.4), Jason Kendall (1.2), Mark DiFelice (0.4) and Braden Looper (-0.9)

TOTAL in 2009- 11 WAR

Based on their 2009 numbers, the Brewers team WAR has been reduced by 3.5 with these moves. Seeing as this was just one season, this doesn't give an accurate assessment of what the Brewers have lost/gained this offseason. Alcides Escobar will be playing everyday and is not considered an addition. While I am reluctant on how much Escobar can produce, he will provide value to the team next season. Also, after giving Carlos Gomez the everyday job in CF, he will likely outproduce his 2009 WAR. He is only 24 years old and playing everyday could develop him into a productive player.

One of the main question marks is Rickie Weeks. Weeks has always been a good player (many will tell you otherwise), but he is coming off an injury. After a hot start in 2009, Weeks racked up a 1.5 WAR after just 37 games. Expand that start into a full season and Weeks' WAR of around 6.0 easily helps cushion the blow of losing Felipe Lopez. Now I'm not saying that Weeks can produce that kind of 2010, but even more pressure will be put on him. Rather than being a good player in a potent lineup, Weeks will now need to be a major contributor.

After the Doug Davis signing, the Milwaukee Brewers 2010 club seems to be set. The pitching has certainly taken a step forward, but it came at the expense of some very productive position players. Sure the club is more balanced now, but are they actually better?

The Inevitable: Doug Davis signs with Brewers

2010-01-20T14:25:00.000-08:00

The Milwaukee Brewers just signed Doug Davis to a one year deal worth $4.25 million, with a mutual option for 2011 for $6.5 million. No matter how you look at it, the Brewers were going to sign at least one more pitcher this offseason. In Davis, the Brewers are getting another option in what was once a depleted rotation.

It's hard to be disappointed in the contract considering the length and money involved. While Davis is not an ace by any standards, he has proven to be a usable pitcher in the major leagues.

This will be Davis' second stint as a Milwaukee Brewer. Davis pitched in Milwaukee from 2003-2006, before being traded to Arizona as part of the Johnny Estrada deal. Over his career, Davis has racked up a respectable 6.7 K/9. The one thing that has always hindered Doug has been walks. Last season, Davis walked an incredible 103 batters which lead MLB. Davis' constant stubbornness to give into batters has lead to a career average of 4.1 BB/9.

Despite high walk totals, Davis has been able to keep a relatively low ERA. While in Arizona, Davis posted ERA's of 4.25, 4.32 and 4.12. Those number need to be taken with a grain of salt considering he played in the light hitting NL West. Looking at those numbers closer, Davis' advanced stats aren't as pretty. His FIPs (Fielding Independent Pitching) for those same seasons were 4.72, 4.15 and 4.84. Davis' walks lead to a high number of baserunners. In those same seasons, Davis posted WHIP's of 1.59, 1.53 and 1.5, which is much higher than the MLB average of 1.41. So how was Davis able to post decent ERA's? Well, he stranded runners. A lot of runners. On average for those three seasons when a runner reached base, he was left there 74.8% of the time (MLB average is 71%). While a 4% might not seem like a big deal, it can be the difference of a good and bad ERA.

While his years in Arizona weren't bad, Davis' prime occurred in a Brewers uniform. After being a waiver claim in 2003, Davis went onto pitch very effectively in Milwaukee. In his three full seasons as a Brewer, Davis posted ERA's of 3.39, 3.84 and 4.94. While his last season in Milwaukee was unspectacular, Davis' first two were a great surprise. In those first two seasons, Davis racked up 430 innings. Davis struck out 377 batters and walked 172 in that same time frame, posting a very solid K/BB ratio.

The real question that needs to be answered is what are the Brewers getting in Davis? I think the real answer falls somewhere in between what he was in Milwaukee and Arizona. While another 200+ strikeout season would be nice, it's tough to expect that out of Davis. The walks are going to be there, but Davis needs to limit them to be effective. While I hate the term "innings eater," that is exactly what Davis is. He has consistently posted 200+ innings throughout his career. Even in 2008, when he was diagnosed with thyroid cancer, he was still able to log 146 innings. While both Davis and Jeff Suppan can eat innings, Davis has the ability to give quality innings, while Suppan cannot. Considering how overworked the Brewers bullpen was last season, Davis' durability should be a huge addition.

Looking at next years projections, Davis is not very highly regarded. Bill James projects Davis to post a 4.46 ERA in just over 200 innings, while CHONE has him at a 4.69 ERA in 167 innings. While those are certainly not the numbers the Brewers are looking for, it would still be an upgrade over last year's staff.

Looking at the rotation now, the Brewers are loaded with depth. Still in the running for the rotation are Davis, Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra and Chris Narveson. The question now becomes, who are the odd men out? Davis, Gallardo and Wolf are all locks, so the final two spots will be distributed between the others. While Narveson impressed at the end of last season, he is unlikely to start the year in the rotation. When asked who would start in the rotation, I absolutely loved Doug Melvin's answer. "Players help us make those decisions." Judging by that response, I would guess the last player out will be determined in spring training. It will be important to see who is left out considering how wide open the NL Central is this year. Sure Suppan is in the final year of his contract, but starting him over Bush/Parra could be a huge mistake. In a year like this, a huge mistake could be very costly.

The "Wait and See" Approach

2010-01-14T12:59:00.001-08:00

Free agency in the game of baseball is tough to predict. With the ever changing economy, teams have been forced to scale back spending. Gone are the days where mid-level talent was greatly compensated, placing a new importance on building a franchise via the draft. Even so, large contracts continue to be given out, but when are these contracts being inked? It seems as the days go by during the offseason, the asking price/years fall substantially.

It really is no secret, it happens just about every year. With teams signing players to huge contract at the start of free agency, they are much less motivated to sign other players as the offseason continues. It comes down to simply supply and demand. If a team signs one of their needs, they are far less likely to sign another player who would've fit that mold. Subsequently, unsigned players have fewer teams to battle for their rights, driving the price way down. My question is why are general managers forcing signings early in the offseason, when comparable talent can be found much cheaper by waiting?

While team are less likely to "sell the farm" on free agency, big contracts are still being signed. John Lackey signed with the Red Sox for 5yrs/$82.5 million. Jason Bay recently signed with the Mets for 4yrs/$66 million and Matt Holliday inked a 7yr/$120 million deal with the Cardinals. The point of this post is not to examine if these were good signings or not, but to question what patience could've done for the teams.

Obviously, the shorter a contract is, the more it benefits an organization. In baseball, unlike other sports, teams have to be much more careful of how they spend their money. Baseball contracts are made up of guaranteed money, meaning even if the player is hurt, he is still entitled to receive payment. In short, spending money in free agency comes with a risk, a very big risk.

Looking at the above contracts, there are similar players available on the free agent market. Right now, the "best" starting pitcher left is Joel Pineiro. While Pineiro struggle to strike out hitters (4.4 K/9 in 2009), his control is incredible. He walked just 27 batters in 214 innings last season while pitching in St. Louis. Coming off last season, Pineiro was expecting a large payday. Reports early this offseason had him asking for a four year deal, worth around $60 million. But as the days come and go, so do the suitors, and subsequent money. As pitchers have fallen off the market and teams have filled needs, Pineiro's asking price has plummeted. There are reports right now he is discussing a 2yr/$15 million contract with the Dodgers. Oh and by the way, Pineiro is a type B free agent, meaning he wouldn't cost the team signing him a first round draft pick.

Meanwhile, the Mets and Cardinals already signed their big free agents, in Jason Bay and Matt Holliday. As the two big free agent outfielders fell, so did the prices on others, leaving great bargains to be had. Soon after, one year deals were signed by Vladimir Guerrero ($5 mil), Hideki Matsui ($6.5 mil) and Ryan Church ($1.5 mil). Sure these players are in the back end of their career's, but so will Bay and Holliday once their contracts are up (Bay 35, Holliday 36).

As the days pass, the more tense free agents are getting. As teams continue to fill out their rosters, players drop their asking prices, leaving for great bargains to be had. The question I continue to ask myself is why are teams immediately jumping into the free agent market, while competition and prices are high? Why not just take a wait and see approach to find good options at cheaper prices and shorter contracts? Sure you might lose out on the "top free agents," but the money teams could save can be used to find other upgrades. It seems to be every season teams find value bargains like Bobby Abreu, or Orlando Hudson. Sure there not the "top free agents," but you're also not paying "top free agent" money for their services.

Chris Narveson: Viable Option?

2010-01-08T13:38:00.000-08:00

It is widely accepted the Milwaukee Brewers are still seeking help with their starting rotation. It seems they have been connected to just about every available pitcher on the free agent market, but could the void be filled internally?

The best option in house seems to be Chris Narveson. One of the most enjoyable pitching performances last season at Miller Park occurred in a spot start from Narveson. On September 23rd, Narveson pitched 5 2/3 innings against the Chicago Cubs. While it was just Narveson's third start of the season, the control and movement on his pitches was simply incredible. In his start, Narveson threw just 70 pitches, but still managed to strike out ten, without walking anyone. He gave up just four hits and allowed one run.

So, the question is what do the Brewers really have with Chris Narveson?

Up until his move to Milwaukee, Narveson's career was quickly fading. He was drafted in the second round of the 2000 amateur draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. Over the next five seasons, Narveson became the #2 rated prospect in the Cardinals organization, and for good reason. In that time frame, Narveson was used almost entirely as a starter, logging 447 innings. He struck out 407 batters, while only walking 133. Those numbers equated to a nifty 3.06:1 K:BB ratio.

Narveson was then sent to the Colorado Rockies as part of the trade that landed Larry Walker in St. Louis. It seemed as soon as that trade was completed, Narveson lost his effectiveness.

He finished out the 2004 season with the Colorado Rockies' AA affiliate Tulsa, where he struck out 14 batters in 20 innings, while walking 13. Narveson's time with the Rockies didn't last long. He was traded just before the 2005 season to Boston for Byung-Hyun Kim. After struggling again, now with the Red Sox organization, Narveson was placed on waivers and claimed by the Cardinals. After struggling to find his command in two more seasons with the Cardinals, he was granted free agency after 2007.

The Brewers signed Narveson and gave him an invite to spring training, where he impressed. The Brewers decided to send Narveson to AAA for the 2008 season, where he regained some of his form. While his 2008 ERA of 5.43 would suggest otherwise, Narveson pitched a solid 136 AAA innings. He struck out 125 batters, while walking 57 for a 2.2:1 K:BB ratio. A high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) was the reason for the abnormally high ERA. In 2009, Narveson continued his success at the AAA level. In 26 appearances, six starts, was able to post a 3.70 ERA in 75 innings. He struck out an incredible 76 batters, while walking just 26. The strong work allowed Narveson to earn a promotion to Milwaukee.

After a brief mid-season call up, Narveson remained in major leagues for good after being recalled in late August. He was able to respond over the next month and a half. In that time frame, Narveson struck out 37 batters, while walking just 11 in 36 1/3 innings. He was given four starts, including his incredible outing against the Cubs. For the entire season, Narveson finished 2-0 with a 3.83 ERA.

Even after his incredible finish to the 2009 season, it's tough to know what to expect going forward. Many often discredit performances later in the season, because teams usually load their rosters with young talent to see what they have. I'm not so quick to discredit Narveson's finish considering the incredible control and movement of his pitches he showed at the end of 2009. Would I lock him into my 2010 rotation? No, but he has to be looked at as an option.

Narveson's current projections for 2010 are all over the place. Bill James projects an ERA of 4.73 in 78 innings (65K's, 34BB). CHONE has Chris at a much more respectable 4.18 ERA in 56 innings (54 K's, 23BB). I bring up these projections, because they are very similar to a starting pitcher the Brewers have been linked to. Jarrod Washburn currently projects for a 4.09 ERA with Bill James, and a 4.63 ERA with CHONE. The only difference between Narveson and Washburn is the price tag on each. Narveson will make the league minimum, while Washburn is currently seeking a three year deal, worth around $20 million.

Obviously Narveson's ability to go deep into games is in question, but he has shown in the minor leagues he can be a starter. In the last two seasons, Narveson has started 28 games for Nashville. He was drafted, and pitched almost entirely as a starting pitcher. He throws multiple (I've seen three, but heard four) pitches relatively effectively. I just can't fathom why the Brewers would overpay Jarrod Washburn when they have an equally talented pitcher currently in house.

Top Moments of 2009

2010-01-05T13:02:00.000-08:00

Last year was disappointing to say the least for the Milwaukee Brewers organization. Following the club's first playoff birth in 26 years, the Brewers finished two games under .500, good for third place in the NL Central. While 2009 was frustrating, it didn't come without it's fair share of memorable moments.

Top 10 Moments of 2009

10. Mitch Stetter's Streak

After the loss of Brian Shouse, in 2009 the Brewers were searching for a solid lefty out of the bullpen. In his brief time in Milwaukee, Mitch Stetter showed flashes of brilliance, but also was prone to walks. That all changed for a brief time this season when Stetter was able to record 15 straight outs via the strikeout. During his 15 K streak, Stetter didn't walk a batter, while surrendering just three hits and no runs. His K streak occurred in the middle of a 17 game stretch where he didn't allow a run. In that stretch, Stetter struck out 24 batters in 14.2 innings, while walking just three batters.

9. Dave Bush's near no-no

There is no player on the current Brewers roster who has come closer to pitching a no-hitter than Dave Bush. In 2008, Bush came within just six outs of accomplishing the feat, only to see former Brewer Lyle Overbay triple down the left field line. Well, on April 23, 2009, Bush came one out closer only to see a similar fate occur. After pitching 7 1/3 innings of hitless ball, Dave Bush watched former Brewer Matt Stairs hit a 86 MPH fastball off the right field foul pole. It was really tough to watch, but it couldn't overshadow Bush's great performance where he out pitched Cole Hamels enroute to a 6-1 Brewers win.

8. Prince Fielder knocks 'em down

On September 6th, Prince Fielder hit a walk off HR in the bottom of the 12th inning to defeat the San Francisco Giants 2-1. While the HR didn't mean a whole lot to the Brewers (seeing as they were already out of the playoff race), it proved to be very controversial. After hitting his HR, Prince jumped high on home plate only to see his entire team fall upon his landing. Personally, I thought the entire scene was very comical, but others thought the Brewers were, once again, disgracing the game. It's tough to see how the Brewers intended to cause any harm by the celebration. Sure the HR dealt a huge blow to the Giants, who were right in the middle of a playoff race, but it was still in fun. These guys are just playing a game out there. It was refreshing to see a team able to celebrate in the midst of a very disappointing year.

7. Cameron Robs HR, Brewers Walk Off

June 27th saw one of the best games at Miller Park this season. In the top of the 7th, Mike Cameron made one of the best catches I have ever seen to rob Nate Schierholtz off a go ahead home run and keep the game tied 4-4. The score would remain the same until the top of the ninth inning when the Giants rallied to score two runs off Trevor Hoffman and his 1.25 ERA at the time. Trailing 6-4, the Giants called on one of the best closers in the game in Brian Wilson. The Brewers responded with a three run rally capped by walk off double by Prince Fielder.

6. Casey and Mack McGehee

On July 29th, Casey McGehee's son Mack McGehee threw out the first pitch at Miller Park, but this wasn't like any ordinary pitch. Mack McGehee, 2, is suffering from cerebral palsy, a brain disorder that great affects muscle movement and coordination. Catching Mack's pitch was Casey, who was brought to tears at the sight of his son's excitement. That was not the last of the McGehee's that night. Casey, although not starting, responded by hitting a pinch hit, go ahead two run home run in the sixth inning. The Brewers would hang onto a 7-5 victory thanks to McGehee's heroics. It was truly one of the best moments in 2009.

5. Brewers Rally in Pittsburgh

There is no question over the past few seasons the Brewers have struggled to win on the road. Combine that with a late deficit, and May 4th spelled another loss for the Brewers. Trailing 3-1 in the top of the eight inning, the Brewers were in need of a rally. After loading the bases with two outs, the Brewers called on Ryan Braun, who was fresh off the plane after recovering from a stiff back, off the bench. Braun responded by delivering a two run, popup double to tie the game 3-3. However, the Pirates scored in bottom of the inning on a Jason Jaramillo double and lead the game 4-3 going to the ninth. The Brewers were not done however. After back to back singles by Jason Kendall and Craig Counsell, Corey Hart walked to load the bases with no outs. J.J. Hardy tied the game with a line drive sac fly to center, setting up Rickie Weeks with runners on the corners and just one out. Weeks continued the rally by launching a fastball into the left field seats for a three run home run, propelling the Brewers to a 7-4 come from behind victory. While Weeks' season would end shortly after that, it was nice to see the confidence on his face after that hit.

4. Ryan Braun does it again

Just about every baseball fan in Milwaukee recalls Ryan Braun's two run HR in 2008 against the Chicago Cubs on the last day of the season, sending Milwaukee to the playoffs. Well, May 8th, 2009 was more of the same from Braun. After being frustrated for seven innings by Cubs' pitching, the Brewers found themselves trailing 2-1, in the bottom of the eighth inning. After a double by Corey Hart to start the inning, Ryan Braun came up to face Aaron Heilman. Braun promptly sent Heilman's 1-0, 100 MPH fastball into the right field bleachers for a 3-2 Brewers lead. Trevor Hoffman went onto pitch a perfect top of the ninth for a 3-2 Brewers victory. Maybe it's just me, but it's nice to see Cubs fans file out of Miller Park disappointed.

3. Hell's Bells

The way the closer has taken off in baseball is incredible. It seems every time they enter a ballgame, the crowd goes insane. They are greeted with music blaring over the speakers, graphics flashing over the scoreboards and general hoopla is involved (Sorry, I really like those Coors Light Coaches ads). To me, there was really nothing that would ever compare to "Enter Sandman" in Yankee Stadium for Mariano Rivera, but then again, I had never seen "Hell's Bells." On April 27th, Hoffman returned from a stint on the DL to make his first appearance as a Brewer. Sure the Brewers were up by 5 and it wasn't a save situation, but Hoffman's intro still rang true. Hell's Bells made it's first appearance at Miller Park. Hoffman promptly dispatched of the Pirates, throwing a 1-2-3 inning and finished a 10-5 Brewers victory, but what was started was really entertaining. For the next five months, the city of Milwaukee was obsessed with Hell's Bells. It became the official party song of the summer. The electricity inside Miller Park when that song is played was incredible.

2. Comeback on Opening Day

There are few things that rival opening day in Miller Park. It has really been some sort of ritual to the city of Milwaukee. People arrive hours before the game to tailgate, and have fun. Some have said, and I agree, it is the official start to spring. This season was no different. People arrived early. People drank heavily. Some didn't make it into the game and really could've cared less, but they missed out. After being throughly dominated by Rich Harden and the Cubs' bullpen, the Brewers found themselves trailing 3-2 going to the last half of the ninth inning. Enter newly acquired Cubs' closer Kevin Gregg. After Jason Kendall grounded out to start the inning, Ken Macha called on Chris Duffy. Yes, that Chris Duffy. It proved to work out after Duffy drew a walk. Then, Rickie Weeks stepped to the plate. Weeks ripped a 2-1 fastball over the head of Alfonso Soriano to tie the game. After a wild pitch advanced Weeks to third, Corey Hart was walked, setting up runners on the corners for Ryan Braun. Braun nubbed a 1-2 fastball to short. Instead of trying to turn a double play, Ryan Theriot threw home to try and get Weeks. Weeks' headfirst slide beat the tag and sent Miller Park into a frenzy. The Brewers won 4-3 on one the best opening days in recent memory.

1. Cleveland Rocks

I may be a little bias in the matter considering I went to Cleveland this season to celebrate my birthday with my brother, who now lives there. Opening a three game series in Cleveland, the Milwaukee Brewers were apart of "Major League night." In tribute to the original "Major League" movie, every fan was given Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn bobbleheads. Bob Uecker even threw out the first pitch for his role as Harry Doyle. After grabbing an early lead, the Brewers fell behind 8-3, after just four innings. Battling back, the Brewers responded with four runs over the next two innings and pulled back to trail 8-7. The Indians, however, were not done, answering the Brewers with a four spot of their own in the bottom of the sixth for a 12-7 lead. After scoring one in the seventh, the Brewers found themselves down four going to the eighth. I remembering joking to my brother that "if we can just load the bases for Braun or Fielder." Well, little did I know that would actually happen. After J.J. Hardy flew out to start the eighth, the horrible Indians' bullpen struck again. Matt Herges and former Brewer Luis Vizciano walked the bases loaded and gave up a single to Ryan Braun. Still holding a 12-9 lead, the Indians' lefty Rafael Perez was summoned into the game to face Prince Fielder. Fielder ripped a hanging slider on the first pitch he saw into the right field bleachers. It was his first career grand slam and gave the Brewers a 13-12 lead. They went onto win 14-12 and eventually swept the Indians in a three game series.

Let me know if there are any moments you thought I missed that should've been on the list. Yes, I did remember the run-off victory and Yovani's incredible 1-0 performance against the Pirates, but I thought these were better.

Can Casey McGehee Protect Fielder?

2009-12-27T12:14:00.001-08:00

It's a question that really bares meaning to the Milwaukee Brewers next season. There is no doubt McGehee played great in 2009, but is that really what we can expect? Can Casey keep up his phenomenal play, or will he regress in 2010?

McGehee took over the five spot after a hot month, while playing nearly everyday at third base. The five spot struggled to produce before McGehee stepped in last season. McGehee never looked back, excelling while protecting Prince Fielder. He went onto post an .859 OPS, while sporting a .360 OBP and .499 slugging percentage. Looking at those numbers, and there is little question about his ability to bat fifth next season, but you can't just stop at those numbers.

McGehee's career numbers would suggest he is not as good of a hitter as he showed last season. In fact, in his six pro seasons prior to last year, McGehee never posted an OPS over .800. Adding to that, McGehee's numbers last season were heavily influenced by a hot month of June. In June, McGehee posted a .368/.429/.671/1.100 line in 76 at bats. Take those 76 at bats out of McGehee's season and his numbers drop significantly.

MeGehee's second half numbers, although still high, are much more along the lines of what fans can expect next season. He posted a .282/.342/.469/.811 line, in 209 post all star break at bats. I would be more than happy with that kind of production next season, but I fear that's rather optimistic.

The early projections that have come out thus far are expecting a pretty big step back for McGehee in 2010. Bill James projects McGehee to post a .272/.328/.429/.757 line next season, while CHONE projects him for .262/.324/.410/.734. Those are not the kind of numbers teams are looking for from their five hitter.

The Brewers might just have a viable option to bat fifth with their other third baseman. Mat Gamel's projections are interesting to say the least. Bill James projects Gamel to post a .277/.354/.464/.818 line. CHONE, on the other hand, is much less impressed with Gamel, seeing a .251/.322/.407/.729 line next year. While CHONE's projection seems very low, it was nice to see such high numbers out of James.

Mat Gamel struggled in 2009, while getting limited playing time in Milwaukee. His struggles last season could be attributed to Ken Macha's lack of knowledge of Gamel's splits. Gamel rarely hit against left handed pitching in the majors, although he clearly has excelled against them throughout the minors. In 105 at bats against righties, Gamel hit .229 with a .341 OBP and .400 slugging percentage. Although his .741 OPS against RHP was disappointing, it wasn't that far off his minor league numbers. Where Gamel excelled against the top minor league pitching was when he faced southpaws. His OPS splits against LHP in his last two pro seasons were 1.061 and .935. Although he only batted 23 times against LHP in Milwaukee, he still posted a .304/.333/.522/.855 line. While 23 at bats really tells nothing, Gamel looked much more comfortable when facing LHP, as opposed to righties.

While I don't expect Gamel to start opening day at third base, it should be looked at as an option. Sure McGehee will play better defense, but I fear the Brewers are valuing 2010 too much. Gamel struggled and McGehee flourished. Career numbers would suggest a rise in Gamel's numbers and a regression with McGehee. With McGehee likely to come back to earth somewhat, it's tough to immediately slot him behind Fielder. If he is unable to keep his numbers up, Fielder will see fewer and fewer pitches to hit.

Who Bats Second?

2009-12-20T14:40:00.000-08:00

There is no question one of the most important slots in a batting order is the player who bats second. They have to take pitches, watch the leadoff man (if on), and get on base for the run producers. It just so happens this is also a huge question mark for the Brewers next season.

The Brewers have one of the best 3-4 combinations in baseball with Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. On top of that, Rickie Weeks, if healthy, has developed a great eye at the plate and has shown the ability to get on base in front of Braun and Fielder. Still, there seems to be a void after Weeks with the current players on the team.

The Brewers have a lot of different options for the two spot in the lineup. The current candidates for the slot have been named as Alcides Escobar, Corey Hart and Carlos Gomez. While looking at each player, there really seems to be a clear cut option out of that group.

Alcides Escobar

Since J.J. Hardy was demoted to the minor league last season, the Brewers made it apparent Escobar was the future of the team. Over the remainder of the season, Escobar made 38 starts and received 125 at bats. In those at bats, Escobar posted a .301/.333/.368/.701 line. While the .301 batting average was nice to see, there is little to suggest Escobar can accomplish it while playing a full season. His .349 BABIP would suggest some luck was involved.

Nevertheless, while the raised batting average was nice to see, Escobar continued to show he has a lot of work to do. In his 125 at bats, Escobar walked just four times. That equates to an awful 3.1 BB%. Combine Escobar's low BB% with his 14.4% K% and some would wonder about his ability to handle the two spot next season.

To be fair to Alcides, he has shown a consistent rise in his walk totals throughout his career. Before being promoted to the major leagues, Escobar saw his BB% climb to 6.9 in Nashville last season. While that number is still a little low, there's evidence to show Escobar is beginning to head in the right direction.

This was one of my biggest problems with the Hardy trade. I feel the best option for this season was to let Alcides play everyday in AAA, while letting Hardy rebound and raise his trade value. Hardy would've been a better option for the two hole and the Brewers could've saved Escobar's service time by letting him mature in the minors.

Corey Hart

Corey had another disappointing season in 2009 after his horrible second half in 2008. In 419 at bats, Hart posted a .260/.335/.418/.753 line, while playing RF. The most troubling part about 2009 for Hart was his huge dip in power. His .418 slugging percentage is not what the Brewers are looking for out of a corner outfielder. He hit just 12 home runs and saw his isolated power (slugging minus batting average) drop to .158.

Even with his dip in power, 2009 saw Hart regain his eye at the plate. In 2008, Hart's OBP dropped to .300. That season, Hart walked just 4.2% of the time. Last season, Hart's OBP raised 35 points, even though his batting average dropped eight points. His walk rate increased from 4.2% to 9.3%, which was much more along the lines of his career averages.

Where Hart should bat in the lineup really depends on what kind of production he is capable of. If Hart is able to regain his power, the Brewers really don't see him batting in the two hole. However, if Hart's power continues to elude him, he might be the Brewers best option batting second. He has shown an ability throughout his career to get on base and is one of the fastest players on the team. With Ken Macha stating he is going to run more, Hart's ability to take pitches will help Rickie Weeks.

Carlos Gomez

While Gomez is the fastest player on the club, he has no business near the top of the order. When the Brewers acquired Gomez, many casual fans suggested he was the new leadoff hitter. This could not be further from the truth. For Gomez to succeed, and bat anywhere near the top of the order, he needs to develop more patience at the plate.

Since Gomez began playing in the major leagues, he has continued to swing at pitch after pitch outside of the strike zone. This lead to the high strikeout and low walk totals that sent Gomez out of Minnesota. In his 1017 major league at bats, Gomez has posted a .246/.292/.346/.638 line. That is not the line of a two hitter in the major leagues.

Obviously, Gomez' main problem is his free swinging approach at the plate. His walk total percentages in the major leagues are 6.0, 4.2, 6.5. His strikeout totals have continued to remain well above league average (21.6, 24.6, 22.9). Until Gomez is able to show improvements in both categories, he should remain near the bottom of the Brewers lineup.

Summary

Right now, Corey Hart looks to be the best option for the Brewers two hitter. However, if Hart bats second, the bottom of the order cannot generate anywhere near the amount of production it needs to. If Hart batted second, the 6-7-8 batters would be a combination of Gregg Zaun, Alcides Escobar and Carlos Gomez. Follow that with the pitchers spot and the Brewers can't expect much production other than the first five in the order.

With this being the case, Alcides Escobar will need to take over batting second. As I stated earlier, this spot comes with a lot of responsibility, which is a lot to put on the shoulders of a 23 year old learning on the go.

Is Jack Zduriencik the Best GM in Baseball?

2009-12-18T09:54:00.000-08:00

In his tenure with the Milwaukee Brewers, Jack Zduriencik greatly influenced the talent in the organization's farm system. In his time, the Brewers had frequent success in the draft. Players taken under Zduriencik were Prince Fielder, Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun, just to name a few. While drafting is an important part of baseball, it becomes even more important in a small market like Milwaukee.

Because of his success, Zduriencik was a candidate for just about every General Manager job when they opened. In 2007, Zduriencik interviewed for a vacancy in Pittsburgh, only to passed over once again. Needless to say, Zduriencik's misfortune was the Brewers relief. However, luck had to run out eventually.

The next season, Zduriencik accepted the GM spot for the Seattle Mariners. Zduriencik wanted to stay in Milwaukee, but after Doug Melvin signed another extension with the Brewers, he realized his time was not coming in Milwaukee. Instead, Zduriencik accepted the tough job of turning around the 101-loss Mariners. Well, at least it was supposed to be tough.

In his first season with the Mariners, Jack Z has completely turned the franchise around. He has built the club perfectly around his surrounding in Safeco Field. The large gaps of Safeco require a good defense and that's exactly what Jack Z has created. Almost immediately after he took over, Zduriencik traded for one of the best defenders in baseball history: Franklin Gutierrez. Literally, Gutierrez has unlimited range. His UZR/150 ratings are unfathomable. Last season, Gutierrez posted a 30.9 UZR/150. In easier terms, Gutierrez' defense saved the Mariners one run ever 47 innings he played in the field. Those numbers are simply incredible.

Zduriencik didn't stop there. He also traded for slick fielding SS Jack Wilson from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wilson, while often criticized for his bat, is another great defender. Combined between Pittsburgh and Seattle last season, Wilson posted a 20.4 UZR/150 while playing SS.

Acquiring this kind of team lead to the Mariners scoring an incredible 12.0 UZR/150 as a team last season, easily best in baseball. Despite scoring just 640 runs last season (3rd worst in baseball), the Mariners won 85 games. Their combination of pitching and defense allows them to compete without raking the ball.

This offseason, Zduriencik has only improved the club. He is nearing completion of a trade that would send Carlos Silva (and his $24 million contract) to Chicago in exchange for Milton Bradley. If completed, this is an absolute steal for the Mariners. While his ERA seems a little inflated, Silva is still one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now. Bradley surely brings attitude problems to Seattle, but also immense talent. An outfielder of Ichiro, Gutierrez and Bradley would save an incredible amount of runs. Also, Bradley's bat fits perfectly into the middle of the Mariners order. Add in the signing of Chone Figgins and the acquisition of Cliff Lee and the Mariners are set for success next season.

It's tough to say I fault Milwaukee in all this. Doug Melvin has done a pretty decent job as GM of the Brewers. While Zduriencik might have been the better option, letting Melvin go wasn't going to happen. Nevertheless, I have to say what Zduriencik has done in one season is pretty incredible. He took a 101-loss franchise and has turned it into a championship contender. Too bad he wasn't overlooked, again.

Craig Counsell Signs with Brewers

2009-12-14T11:09:00.001-08:00

Today, the Milwaukee Brewers resigned Craig Counsell to a one year deal. Counsell played a huge role in 2009 for the Brewers. If everything goes according to plan, Counsell's main job will consist of coming off the bench. There was little doubt the Brewers were going to keep Counsell. The deal is reportedly worth just over $2 million.

Counsell had a great 2009. After Rickie Weeks went down for the season with a wrist injury, Counsell posted one of his best seasons ever. In 404 at bats, he posted a .285/.357/.408/.765 line, while playing above average defense. Throughout his career, Counsell's main attribute has been his glove. While his UZR's have fluctuated, he has consistently been a very good defender, even near the end of his career.

My main concern with the Counsell negotiations with Milwaukee was overlooking his prior failures at the plate. There is little to suggest Counsell can post the same numbers as 2009. Bill James currently projects Counsell to post a .246/.337/.327/.664 line in 2010. Those numbers would be in line with what the Brewers should expect out of Counsell. To be honest, last season's production really came out of nowhere. Before 2009, Counsell hadn't posted an OPS over .675 since 2005. While his change in batting stance might have helped somewhat, Counsell isn't going to set any records with the bat. While OPS under .700 aren't exciting, it seems rather consistent with what teams get from a backup middle infielders.

What sets Counsell apart from other infield reserve is his versatility and glove. Counsell is able to play 2B, SS and 3B. While other players are also able to do this, what sets Counsell apart is he can play great defense at every position. According to the defensive projections of BeyondtheBoxscore.com, Counsell will play each of those positions above average in 2010. His projected UZR/150 for SS is 1.8, 2B is 1.6 and 3B is 1.3. Those are impressive numbers to say the least.

While Counsell can qualify as a good bench player, he also provides insurance to Rickie Weeks. Weeks surely has the talent to be one of the best second baseman in the game, but has had problems with injuries in the past. It's nice to know the Brewers have a viable backup if Weeks is sidelined. Counsell with also serve as a nice option if Alcides Escobar struggles in his transition to the major leagues.

After Counsell's 2009, I am really surprised how easy it was to retain his services. A two year deal would've been tough to swallow, but Doug Melvin was able to retain Counsell short term, and at a good price. While fans shouldn't expect similar production at the plate this season, Counsell remains a fan favorite and a premier gloveman in baseball.

Busy Week in Review

2009-12-13T23:48:00.001-08:00

After a busy week for the Milwaukee Brewers, let's take a look at how the Winter Meetings and the Contract Deadline influenced the club.

Winter Meetings

I think anybody could've predicted the winter meetings for the Milwaukee Brewers. There was no question this franchise was in desperate need of starting pitching. To fill a much needed vacancy, the Brewers signed veteran Randy Wolf to a 3 year/$29.75 million deal. They didn't stop there, however. The Brewers then signed RP LaTroy Hawkins to a two year deal, setting up a very solid back end of the bullpen.

While some may argue Wolf's deal was too long and pricey, the Brewers got exactly what they needed. Other pitchers such as Doug Davis and Jarrod Washburn would've only compounded the problem, not solved it. The one question I have with the Wolf deal was the length, but let's face it, he wouldn't have come to Milwaukee without that third year. While 2012, and 2011 for that matter are tough to swallow, Wolf is well worth the $10 million he will be paid next season. Sure the last two years are a risk, but when you try to get free agents to come to Milwaukee risks usually have to be taken. Having said that, this contract is no where near the deal Jeff Suppan received from the Brewers. Wolf is much better and has shown his ability to strike out batters, while limiting walks. That is something Suppan just cannot do. Can we please stop comparing these two contracts? Suppan is nowhere near as good of a pitcher as Randy Wolf is.

Signing a reliever was not really a concern until the injury to Mark DiFelice surfaced. When a void was created, Melvin pounced on Hawkins after two amazing seasons pitching out of the Astros bullpen. If Hawkins is able to maintain that type of production , Milwaukee will have one of the best late game combos in baseball. If not, while $7.5 million is a risk, it won't set back this franchise too much.

Tendered Contracts Deadline

With eight active players to make a decision on, Doug Melvin had to decide the future of this ball club. The three main decisions can in the form of Dave Bush, Jody Gerut and Mike Rivera. When I first started hearing reports from Melvin stating he would explore all options on these players, I was nervous to say the lease. Releasing Dave Bush and Jody Gerut made absolutely no sense and would've put this organization's depth in serious jeopardy. When a team lack starting pitching, how does letting go a solid pitcher with minimal risk make sense? When a team is unsure as to the actual talents of a young, struggling CF, how does releasing a proven option make sense? They don't. While Bush and Gerut will cost this team nearly $6 million next season, the risk was far too great to release either player. Both are capable of being integral parts of next season's club. If Bush is healthy, he becomes one of the most attractive options in the starting rotation. Gerut provides a great 4th outfielder off the bench, although he should start over Carlos Gomez right now. The Brewers were smart to renew their deals, but it was surprising it was even a question in the first place.

When Mike Rivera was let go, I was shocked to say the least. Sure he would be getting a raise, but after only making $415,000 last season, it wouldn't have been that much money. While I like Rivera in his time as a Brewer, I really don't think he could succeed if he saw consistent playing time. With Gregg Zaun, the Brewers are asking for around 120 game out of him. That left an extra 40+ games for a backup to start. While Mike Rivera looked good in limited, and I mean limited action, his minor league numbers suggest he wasn't ready to take over those 40+ games. The Brewers have better options in the minor leagues and it really didn't make sense to renew Rivera. I was hoping they wouldn't renew, but I was surprised they actually didn't.